Back in 2023, singer-songwriter Noah Kahan received a Best New Artist nomination for his buzzy Stick Season. Shortly after voting closed, the TikTok-powered album exploded, eventually registering more than 4 million in sales and 1.8 billion Spotify streams on its way to becoming one of the biggest releases of the 2020s. While many expected Kahan’s nomination, he ultimately lost to Victoria Monét — a result pundits predicted but nevertheless sent Kahan into a funk. The trouble was, Kahan’s album peaked too late, well after Recording Academy members has cast their ballots.
This time around, that won’t be the case: Kahan’s hugely anticipated follow-up, The Great Divide, has received a rapturous response with audiences, opening with at No. 1 this week with nearly 390,000 units in the U.S. alone, more than Bruno Mars and Sabrina Carpenter had with their latest records. With six Top 20 hits from the album and such an impressive debut, Kahan is poised for a bounty of Grammy nominations, including a potential Album of the Year bid.
Kahan is not a traditional pop star. As primarily a folk and rock singer, he offers an alternative to the pop-saturated slate of Album of the Year contenders that includes Taylor Swift, Bruno Mars, Harry Styles, Olivia Rodrigo, Ariana Grande, and Raye. Those artists all have their factions and could ultimately split votes, allowing someone like Kahan, currently No. 2 in the Gold Derby prediction data, to slide into the final field, especially if he coalesces votes from Americana, folk, rock, and alternative voters, as well as the country and pop voters who engage with his music.
Album of the Year
1.
Olivia Dean
The Art of Loving
2.
Olivia Rodrigo
You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love
3.
Raye
This Music May Contain Hope
4.
5.
6.
Taylor Swift
The Life of a Showgirl
7.
Harry Styles
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
8.
Brandi Carlile
Returning to Myself
9.
Kacey Musgraves
Middle of Nowhere
10.
Noah Kahan
The Great Divide
When it comes to the Grammys, Americana, folk, and alternative don’t have the biggest voting blocs in the Recording Academy, but that combination of genres has been crucial for getting acts nominated in the past. Boygenius, Brandi Carlile, Beck, and Mumford and Sons have all been embraced by this same combination of genres, with the latter two netting Album of the Year wins.
Why can’t The Great Divide be a formidable contender like those two? Similar to Mumford and Sons, Kahan might not be a critic’s darling, but his commercial success is too massive to ignore and there’s no arguing the emotional draw to his music. Plus, a major reason why Beck and Mumford and Sons won their respective prizes was due to vote-splitting among the more pop-leaning choices, a phenomenon that likely helped other Americana-adjacent victories from Jon Batiste and Beyoncé.
The last album properly categorized as Americana to win Album of the Year was Babel by Mumford and Sons almost 15 years ago, while the last rock record to win was Morning Phase by Beck. These are genres that rarely engender big buzz at the Grammys; Kahan could bring some shine to those neglected formats.
Love it or hate it, The Great Divide is a very human, raw record distinct from the more formulaic music clogging up the charts recently. And not unlike current front-runner Olivia Dean with The Art of Loving, The Great Divide success story might provide a compelling narrative to voters than many of the under-enthusiastically received albums from more established Grammy favorites.
Finally, voters will be hard-pressed to avoid Kahan and The Great Divide. The promotional push began back at the 68th Grammy ceremony in January, when his label debuted the video for the title track as an extended commercial. Over the past two weeks, he has made high-profile appearances in print, on popular podcasts, and via key TV slots, including The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon, Late Night With Seth Meyers, and this weekend’s Saturday Night Live. Netflix is streaming Noah Kahan: Out of Body, which chronicles the making of the album. And he’s about to embark on a sold-out 57-date world tour that will hit key stadiums across the U.S. just before nomination voting begins, before traveling overseas.
Aside from his Best New Artist bid, Kahan has only one other Grammy nod, for Best Country/Duo Group Performance for “Cowboys Cry Too,” a 2024 collab with Kelsea Ballerini. This time around, don’t be surprised if he doubles (or triples) his career nomination total, with potential bids in rock, Americana and alternative genres, as well as the General Field possibility for Album of the Year. And there’s a good chance he won’t leave as disappointed as did the last time he was suited and booted for the Grammys.
