All of us grew up being advised that slow and steady wins the race for tortoises. But does the same hold true for television shows racing for Emmy glory? The 2026 awards cycle offers three potential case studies for series that could make their move as other attention-grabbing jackrabbits falter in the Phase 1 homestretch.
Granted, in TV land it’s not enough to merely hope that your rival decides to take a nap right mere yards from the finish lane. These shows also have some catching up to do in terms of getting voters to retrace their steps instead of cueing up the next new thing. They’re also all fighting the well-known Emmy-nertia that often finds voters simply ticking the boxes next to already-recognized shows and actors. And even more crucially, these series aren’t competing for the win so much as the nomination, particularly in the Comedy and Drama races where two shows — you know the ones — are poised to rabbit punch everyone on the way to the podium without breaking a sweat.
Still, in a season that’s so far been supremely light on surprises, it’s fun to game out how this particular trio of tortoises could make an outside move to the inside track. It’s either that or their Emmy hopes are hare today… and gone tomorrow.
The Lightning thief?
President James A. Garfield made a point of shunning the spotlight during his short-lived Oval Office tenure from the March to September of 1881. So it’s perhaps appropriate that Netflix dropped Death by Lightning — the four-episode dramatization of his life story — onto its streaming airwaves early last November with little fanfare. Sandwiched between Season 2 of Nobody Wants This and the extended farewell of Stranger Things, Mike Makowsky’s limited series largely faded into the algorithm despite strong reviews and a terrific ensemble that includes Michael Shannon as the nation’s 20th president, Nick Offerman as his reluctant veep (and even more reluctant 21st president) Chester A. Arthur, and Betty Gilpin as Garfield’s widow, Lucretia.
Netflix no doubt hoped that particular release date would help Lightning catch fire with the first batch of 2026 Emmy precursors. But only the Critics’ Choice Awards ended up fulfilling those hopes, bestowing nominations on all three of those actors as well as the show itself. After that, though, the series suffered a slow death as it was left out of contention at the Golden Globes and the SAG Actor Awards, seemingly snuffing its Emmy hopes — especially once Netflix turned its attention to its stable of other limited-series contenders, including the second season of its 2022 winner, Beef.
But as has been much discussed around Gold Derby HQ, Beef no longer seems like the prime cut it was in its freshman year and no other limited series has stepped up to become the unquestioned front-runner. FX’s Love Story has the ratings and the youth-infused buzz, but also the Daryl Hannah controversy. HBO’s Half Man has Richard “Baby Reindeer” Gadd, but is also a punishing watch. And All Her Fault has a twist-filled plot and Succession favorite Sarah Snook, but is also on Peacock — a streamer that doesn’t appear to be on the Emmy radar.
Death by Lightning, in contrast, is controversy-free, dramatic, but not painfully so, and lives on Netflix, the reigning champ of this category. What it doesn’t have so far is eyeballs, but that could easily change as voters dig deeper into their queues looking for additional nominees to fill out their ballots. Our Expert prognosticators are catching on to that scenario; the series sits at No. 7 on the Best Limited Series leaderboard and could easily rise should All Her Fault or The Beast in Me — another Netflix contender that people did watch, but didn’t seem to like all that much — stall out.
Limited Series
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Prognosticators also see Shannon as a viable Best Limited/Move Actor contender, ranking him at No. 8 behind shakier Netflix candidates like Jason Bateman in Black Rabbit and Matthew Rhys in the aforementioned Beast in Me. The two-time Oscar nominee just scored a nod from the Gotham TV Awards, which could bring those needed eyeballs to his plain-spoken, but entirely compelling presidential performance. (For the record, Gilpin ranks at No. 10 on the supporting actress chart, while Offerman is No. 7 among supporting actors. But The Last of Us Emmy winner has much better odds — try Top 3 — at making the Comedy Supporting Actor cut thanks to his hilarious role in Apple TV’s Margo’s Got Money Troubles.)
“The more I learned about him, the more enamored I was of him with him and the more it seemed important to tell people his story,” Shannon told us about slipping on Garfield’s clothes and facial hair. “It sure would be nice to have someone like James Garfield around right now.”
For Death by Lightning fans, it sure would be nice to see voters elect Shannon on Emmy nominations morning as well.
Movie/Limited Actor
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Matthew Rhys
The Beast in Me
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Charlie Hunnam
Monster: The Ed Gein Story
5.
Jason Bateman
Black Rabbit
6.
Paul Anthony Kelly
Love Story
7.
8.
Michael Shannon
Death by Lightning
9.
Matthew Macfadyen
Death by Lightning
10.
Run Reggie Run
Twenty years after they gifted the world with 30 Rock, Tina Fey and Tracy Morgan did everyone a solid by reuniting for The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins, which — believe it or not — was the only new scripted series that premiered on NBC during the 2025-26 TV season. Quite a change from the 2006-07 season when 30 Rock was one of 10 new shows that premiered along with such bangers as Friday Night Lights, Heroes and Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip. (Say what you will about the latter; two decades later, itone of the craziest shows to ever have been granted a full season on network television.)
Fey and Morgan’s earlier show was never a ratings juggernaut, but it still lasted seven seasons and earned 103 Emmy nods and 16 wins over the course of that run. Relative to its predecessor, Reggie Dinkins did reach what qualifies as hit status on network television these days — the series premiere reached 14 million viewers across various platforms. Even though none of the subsequent episodes matched that number, the show did settle into enough of a groove for NBC to move forward with a second season.
Along with that Season 2 announcement, the network has noticeably turned up the volume on the show’s FYC campaign in the hopes of recapturing some of that 30 Rock magic. What always worked in that comedy’s favor at the Emmys, though, was its deft skewering of the entertainment industrial complex — the same secret sauce that powered The Studio to its record-breaking streak last year. In contrast, Reggie Dinkins targets a narrower slice of the media for satire, specifically sending up the wide world of sports documentaries via a mockumentary format.
Maybe that’s why our oddsmakers remain lukewarm on the chances of Morgan’s ex-football star successfully completing a Hail Mary pass at the Emmys. Reggie Dinkins sits at No. 14 on the Best Comedy Series leaderboard, which is a ton of yardage to make up.
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Only Murders in the Building
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Margo’s Got Money Troubles
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Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat
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Meanwhile, Morgan — who scored a lone Emmy nod during 30 Rock‘s run — is mired in the mid-20s in the Best Comedy Actor race. But his co-star, Daniel Radcliffe, has a bit more wind behind his back, landing in the mid-teens over in Best Comedy Supporting Actor.
So yes, the likelihood of Reggie Dinkins shocking the shell out of us with a late-quarter comeback this awards cycle seems unlikely. But given that the only other network comedy that consistently scores Emmy attention — ABC’s Abbott Elementary — is getting up there in terms of years and episode count, maybe NBC’s best bet is to plant a flag now and hope that any voters that retroactively sample Season 1 remember to come back for Season 2. And maybe next year, they’ll vote for it, too.
Comedy Supporting Actor
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Nick Offerman
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
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Ebon Moss-Bachrach
The Bear
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Bowen Yang
Saturday Night Live
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Tyler James Williams
Abbott Elementary
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Marcello Hernandez
Saturday Night Live
10.
Andrew Scott
The Comeback
Money in the bank
HBO’s Industry technically isn’t a new series, but Season 4 felt like an all-new show. Moving on from the densely-plotted narrative that powered the first three years, the fourth edition featured big story swerves and even bigger guest stars, including the likes of Kal Penn, Charlie Heaton, and Kiernan Shipka. Those big moves accordingly attracted a bigger audience, and encouraged HBO to grant the series one final season to wrap things up.
But is Industry now big enough to capture Emmy voters’ attention? Certainly, revamping the show made it easier for those who missed the first three seasons to consider rewarding its current iteration without necessarily having to revisit everything that came before. And sometimes it takes a couple of years for one of these complex dramas to ensnare voters in their web. Don’t forget that The Americans only broke into the Best Drama Series race after four years of consistently popping up on all those same “The Best Shows You’re Not Watching” lists that Industry appears on now.
Still, we have to acknowledge that Industry remains outside of the Top 10 at the No. 11 spot, behind such fellow HBO series as Task, Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, The Gilded Age, and Euphoria — none of which have hit the same level of acclaim. And perhaps expecting voters to devote eight hours to swimming in financial world jargon is simply too big an ask ahead of the June 22 voting deadline.
Drama Series
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A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
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On the other hand, it is heartening to see Industry‘s breakout star Myha’la cracking the Top 10 in the Best Drama Actress race. Not for nothing, but Keri Russell received her first nomination in that category for Season 4 of The Americans. That’s the kind of long game that tortoises respect.
Drama Actress
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Keri Russell
The Diplomat
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Carrie Coon
The Gilded Age
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Michelle Pfeiffer
The Madison
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Jennifer Aniston
The Morning Show
8.
Chase Infiniti
The Testaments
9.
Kristin Scott Thomas
Slow Horses
10.
