Welcome back to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. Just days after the announcement of the 2026 Tony nominees, we reconvene to offer a reassessment of the top four categories and discuss the biggest surprises.
David Buchanan: Sam, we’ve now had a few days to digest the 2026 Tony Awards nominations, which were announced on Tuesday morning and had plenty of surprises in store, especially in many of the insanely competitive categories that we’ve been discussing obsessively every week for months. Though I should caveat that it may not have been too surprising to you, since since you scored best out of all of Gold Derby’s experts!
The headline this week is the field-leading 12 nominations apiece for original musicals The Lost Boys and Schmigadoon! Leading up to the nominations, our odds favored Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) in the top race for Best Musical, and that show scored eight bids. I don’t think people should read too much into the four-point gap in the tallies; it makes sense that Two Strangers didn’t accumulate as many nominations as the other two, as they have a much smaller ensemble — it’s just the title two characters, after all — and the intimate scale of the show means the design elements are not as robust. All three shows have those key citations in Book, Score, and Director. I think this is still an excitingly competitive race among these three productions. Do you feel the same way four days out from the nominations?
Sam Eckmann: Indeed, the nominations didn’t clear up much in the Best Musical race. Titaníque is the nominee that probably took the biggest hit. Marla Mindelle’s Céline Dion parody netted just four nominations, failing to register in directing, choreography, or any design category. The zany show still has a viable path to victory in most of its nominated categories, but it’s much harder to envision Titaníque being named Best Musical.
I think Schmigadoon! benefitted the most from the nominations announcement and is riding the biggest wave of momentum at the moment. The score from Cinco Paul was deemed eligible and then nominated, director-choreographer Christopher Gattelli secured double nominations, and the musical showed up in all four design categories. The production has capitalized on their good news by announcing an extension through January. Basically, everything that could go right for Schmigadoon! has gone right. The only expected nominee for this tuner that failed to register was a second Featured Actress bid for McKenzie Kurtz, but as we saw, no show was able to pull off two featured acting nominees in the same category this year.
Still, I’m not ready to call the race a done deal for Schmigadoon! Two Strangers was nominated everywhere it was supposed to be, and I can still see a world where it snatches victories in Score and Book of a Musical. That would be enough to win Best Musical in this era of the Tonys; A Strange Loop prevailed with Book of a Musical as its only additional trophy, after all.
I also still see The Lost Boys as a major threat. Some voters will undoubtedly be won over by the big sound of its rock-tinged score, and I think The Rescues could pull off an upset in this race. If The Lost Boys wants to claim the top award, they probably need to win Score, so all eyes will be on that category. Book of a Musical is more likely to head to the comedy of Schmigadoon! and Titaníque, or the extended scenes of dialogue in Two Strangers. And while Michael Arden would be a deserving pick for Director of a Musical, he just won the category for Maybe Happy Ending, and I suspect voters might favor one of the revivals in the directing category this year. With the score and book categories still toss ups, it’s sort of anyone’s game. Would you agree? Is there at least more clarity for Revival of a Musical?
Buchanan: I agree that it remains a tight three-way race, with a well-timed opening surge for Schmigadoon! It’s pretty exciting that in a season with far fewer new musicals than last year, we have a genuine contest for the top honor and the key prizes of Original Score and Book. I’ll be curious to see how the next few weeks of campaigning unfold.
Best Musical
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Carry a Cake Across New York
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In Best Musical Revival, I think both of our frontrunners — Ragtime and Cats: The Jellicle Ball — earned the pivotal nominations they needed to contend for the top prize. I must confess I was fairly surprised that Cats only earned the one acting nomination, for André De Shields, when once upon a time we were discussing whether it could get three spots in the Featured Actor race! While Sydney James Harcourt and Junior LaBeija were never “safe” nominees, I was shocked when it finally dawned on me that “Tempress” Chasity Moore missed the Featured Actress roster. I don’t necessarily read this as a sign of vulnerability, though. Remember last year when Sunset Blvd. failed to get into either featured category, even though David Thaxton and Grace Hodgett Young were predicted; it still managed to win Best Revival with an acting trophy for Nicole Scherzinger and lighting design, and I think Cats could follow a similar path.
But I’ve never thought this was a done deal, and Ragtime showed great strength up and down the ballot with 11 nominations. The production has been re-inviting awards voters to see it again, too, and I think it will greatly help its chances for folks to re-experience its emotional impact now if they haven’t seen it since September. And let’s not forget that The Rocky Horror Show far exceeded expectations with an impressively strong nine nominations, including all four design categories and a few surprise acting bids. How do you size up this race right now?
Eckmann: The Rocky Horror Show definitely surpassed our expectations, but it missed a key directing nomination for Sam Pinkleton. I believe the revival race will be decided in the best director category, so I still think this is a two horse race between Cats: The Jellicle Ball and Ragtime.
I consider the omission of Moore in Featured Actress to be the biggest snub of the year since her rendition of “Memory” will be remembered as one of the defining moments of the season which earns a nightly standing ovation. There was some online chatter that Cats underperformed in nominations, but really Moore is the only one of their expected nominees to miss. So I still see Cats in a great position. It’s the obvious frontrunner in director and choreography right now thanks to the complete reinvention of the source material that those artists have come up with. The show is also leading early odds for costume design and featured actor for André De Shields.
Ragtime is still in the game, with an astounding five acting nominations. At the moment, those are the categories where I see it being most competitive. It’s hard to imagine anyone surpassing Joshua Henry in Best Actor and Caissie Levy has a solid claim to Best Actress, even if she does face stiff competition from Mindelle. Featured players Nichelle Lewis and Ben Levi Ross also have their fans, and momentum could shift in their direction over the next couple weeks. Something Ragtime has going for it that The Jellicle Ball doesn’t is a cast album. Voters don’t even need to attend Ragtime a second time to remind themselves of the incredible harmonies and musicianship of the singers on the Vivian Beaumont stage. The ability to constantly revisit this interpretation of the score could certainly help their campaign. Are emotional performances and an album enough to surpass Cats‘ likely directing win? I’m not sure.
Let’s shift our focus to the plays for a moment though. After nominations were released, recent Pulitzer Prize winner Bess Wohl rocketed to a commanding lead in our prediction center for Liberation. Is this category a done deal even though that drama faces off against The Balusters and Giant which are still running?
Buchanan: I have confidence in Liberation. The Pulitzer Prize win certainly doesn’t hurt and shines a very timely spotlight on the work in this key stretch of the Tony race, but that win alone is not a reliable bellwether of success in this category historically. I do think it has the advantage of being the most overall impressive and enduring work, and the outpouring of celebrations for its Pulitzer win signals to me that it is still very fondly remembered amongst the industry, and that bodes well for its Tony prospects, too.
With four nominations, Giant hit all of its marks and is incredibly topical. Yes, it missed Featured Actor for Olivier Award winner Elliot Levey, but it picked up Featured Actress Aya Cash, so I consider that a wash. The Balusters definitely over-performed my expectations, picking up its possible – but nowhere near guaranteed – nominations for director Kenny Leon and featured performers Marylouise Burke and Richard Thomas. It has also generated a lot of excitement in the industry, so I’ll be listening for any rumblings of an insurgency here. But I don’t want to overthink this race until indicators say we need to reconsider. How about you?
Out of the whole nominations morning, there’s no question that the biggest surprises in the top four categories came in Best Play Revival. We knew there had to be some wonderful productions absent from the lineup, but I never expected Every Brilliant Thing and Fallen Angels to both get nominations in lieu of Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Marjorie Prime, and Bug! Even with a very different field than we anticipated, I think Death of a Salesman has taken the reigns in this race and looks like the very clear frontrunner, even though Oedipus also made a strong showing with seven bids. What do you think?
Eckmann: Industry reaction is quite enthusiastic for The Balusters, and while I don’t see it taking down Liberation for Best Play, I do wonder if Richard Thomas could make a play for Featured Actor in a race that could turn quite fluid. All of the men in that six-nominee category have ardent fans and I can make an argument for most of them. I’ve had Christopher Abbott out front for a while, but Thomas, Alden Ehrenreich, and Ruben Santiago-Hudson have juicy roles that will undoubtedly find support. It’s also worth noting that this could be the only category where The Balusters, Becky Shaw, or Joe Turner’s Come and Gone could feasibly land a win.
As for Play Revival, I’m still in anguish that Marjorie Prime was left out. But at least June Squibb and Danny Burstein were recognized with acting nominations. While we may not have predicted Every Brilliant Thing and Fallen Angels in this category, the bigger shock to me is that Death of a Salesman and Oedipus are the only two play revivals with a corresponding director nomination, for Joe Mantello and Robert Icke, respectively. I thought Trip Cullman would finally score his first nomination after the industry went gaga for Becky Shaw, and Fallen Angels scooped up so many nods that it’s bizarre director Scott Ellis wasn’t a surprise inclusion. So, barring any major shifts in the race, Play Revival ultimately remains a battle between Death of a Salesman and Oedipus. I think the latter is out front to win Lead Actress for Lesley Manvile and could pick up a Sound Design trophy along the way. But Death of a Salesman has ticked every box that a winner needs here. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Mantello execute such a high conceptual show, and his vision makes a well-worn classic feel urgent and arresting. Unless voters want throw another victory towards Liberation and give Whitney White the award, Mantello is likely our director winner. And thus, Salesman likely takes Play Revival.
Buchanan: I completely agree. I cannot wait to dive deeper into the performance categories, when we will no doubt discuss if Salesman will win one, two, or even three acting trophies!
