Ella Langley is having herself a year. “Choosin’ Texas,” the lead single off her sophomore album, Dandelion, is the biggest hit of 2026, spending a whopping six weeks atop Billboard‘s Hot 100 and outperforming tracks by the likes of Bruno Mars, Olivia Dean, and BTS. Within the past two weeks, the Tennessean singer-songwriter has racked up five nominations at the American Music Awards, including Best New Artist and Best Song (“Choosin’ Texas”), and seven nods from the Academy of Country Music, including Female Artist of the Year and both Best Single and Best Song. Four months into 2026, and Langley has already made a strong case for Grammys‘ Best New Artist.
The rising star, who broke through in 2024 with the viral TikTok hit “You Look Like You Love Me” off her debut album, Hungover, leads the Gold Derby odds in the category, with a 93% chance at landing a nomination, separating herself in recent days from another social-friendly songstress, Sienna Spiro.
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While Spiro and other notable contenders like Geese, Malcom Todd, and Dominic Fike also have viral hits, none has been able to translate that into chart success the way Langley has. Langley will go into the Grammy voting season with Dandelion and “Choosin Texas” being Billboard chart-toppers in the all-genres charts, with even more hit potential. Tracks like “Be Her,” “Loving Life Again,” and “Dandelion” all entered the Top 40 and could be serviced to country radio once “Texas” dies down (nomination voting takes place in October). While commercial success isn’t everything, historically sales tend to be the biggest indicator for a Best New Artist win, with recent winners Olivia Dean, Olivia Rodrigo, and Billie Eilish being the biggest commercial successes of their lineups. The rest of the 2020s winners also would line up with Langley. Like Chappell Roan, Langley has been a viral success and is bringing something unique to her genre, and Victoria Monét and Samara Joy prove not only pop artists can win the award. Langley would extend the female streak of Best New Artist winners, as she would be the 10th consecutive woman to win the award.
That said, Langley does have one big roadblock: her genre. Country music has historically underperformed in Best New Artist. Many country newbies have been nominated, but only three have won the award: LeAnn Rimes in 1997, Carrie Underwood in 2007, and Zac Brown Band in 2010. Country as a whole has struggled to win big in the General Field at the Grammys, although there are some exceptions, like Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour and Lady A’s “Need You Now.” What set those apart from other country General Field nominees is their crossover appeal, filled with easily accessible material for pop audiences. With “Choosin’ Texas” as a budding pop radio hit, Langley would fit that mold. There’s a strong chance the single will eventual crack the Top 10 of airplay, just as Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night,” Luke Combs’ “Fast Car,” and Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” did after topping the Hot 100. Even if Langley doesn’t fully cross over to pop in that same way, the lack of competition from any pop act could still mean that her country and Americana dominance could be enough. For example, the Zac Brown Band benefitted from competing against four acts bordering on one-hit wonder status.
Another reason country music goes under-recognized at the Grammys is due to a shortage of voting Recording Academy members. According to Billboard, only 7% of Grammy voters report to work in country music. In 2024, the Recording Academy had a smaller number of country musicians than those who work in R&B, pop, jazz, American roots, global/Latin, rock/alternative and rap. This conversation is actually one that even CEO Harvey Mason Jr. addressed in interviews with both Billboard and Variety last year. With the issue being so glaring, expect the Grammys to invest in outreach to the country community similar to what the Recording Academy did with the Latin community last year — which, perhaps not coincidentally, resulted in a General Field win with Bad Bunny’s Debí Tirar Más Fotos in Album of the Year.
Nonetheless, the combination of sales and airplay and air of inevitability (she is reigning Best New Artist at the ACM Awards and, as noted, is in line for that same award at the AMAs) has pushed Langley to the top of the Gold Derby leaderboards, positioning her to become the first country music winner of Best New Artist in 17 years. Such an achievement would not only be a big win for the genre, but for women in country music, who traditionally have been struggled to gain traction on country radio. And, whenever possible, Recording Academy voters love to reward deserving artists and deliver an affirmative message with statement Grammys.
