After two dominant weekends, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is looking to make it three in a row at the box office — and there’s not much standing in its way.
Universal Pictures‘ Illumination sequel is projected to bring in roughly $35 million to $45 million in its third frame, continuing a strong run that’s already pushed it past $300 million domestically and over $630 million worldwide. Even with a typical third-weekend dip, Mario is still playing like the go-to choice for families and casual moviegoers alike.
The only new wide release hoping to shake things up is Lee Cronin’s The Mummy. Warner Bros.’ darker, more unsettling take on the classic monster story swaps swashbuckling adventure for full-on horror. Current projections have the film opening in the $15 million to $20 million range, though some forecasts suggest it could land lower depending on how audiences respond to its intense tone.
That could leave the door open for Amazon MGM’s Project Hail Mary to keep cruising in second place. The sci-fi hit continues to show impressive staying power and is eyeing another $13 million to $18 million weekend as it closes in on $300 million domestic.
Elsewhere, A24’s The Drama and Universal’s You, Me & Tuscany should round out the top five with modest returns in the mid-single digits as both films continue their steady runs.
Outside the top tier, a handful of smaller releases are also opening this weekend, including a new documentary centered on Lorne Michaels, Magnolia Pictures’ crime drama Normal, and A24’s music thriller Mother Mary. None are expected to break into the top five, but each could find an audience in limited release.
All signs point to another easy win for Mario — at least for now. The real competition arrives next weekend, when the Michael Jackson biopic Michael is expected to give the box office its first real shake-up in weeks.
New releases
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy
Director: Lee Cronin
Distributor: Warner Bros.
The young daughter of a journalist disappears into the desert without a trace. Eight years later, the broken family is shocked when she is returned to them, as what should be a joyful reunion turns into a living nightmare. The horror movie has a running time of two hours, 14 minutes, and is rated R. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy is certified “rotten” with a 52 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 47 percent.
Normal
Director: Ben Wheatley
Distributor: Magnolia Pictures
Centers on a temporary small-town sheriff who uncovers dark mysteries after a local bank robbery. The crime thriller has a running time of one hour, 31 minutes, and is rated R. Normal is certified “fresh” with a 77 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 63 percent.
Mother Mary
Director: David Lowery
Distributor: A24
Long-buried wounds rise to the surface when iconic pop star Mother Mary reunites with her estranged best friend and former costume designer, Sam Anselm, on the eve of her comeback performance. The music thriller has a running time of one hour, 52 minutes, and is rated R. Mother Mary is certified “fresh” with a 74 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 56 percent.
Lorne
Director: Morgan Neville
Distributor: Focus Features
Lorne Michaels, creator of Saturday Night Live (1975), offers unprecedented access to the man who built and sustained the institution for five decades. The biographical documentary has a running time of one hour, 40 minutes, and is rated R. Lorne is certified “fresh” with a 67 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 54 percent.
Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the April 17 — 19 weekend:
1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie — $35 million
2. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy — $17 million
3. Project Hail Mary — $15 million
4. The Drama — $5 million
5. You, Me & Tuscany — $4 million
