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Home»Awards & Events»2026 Cannes Film Festival lineup: Oscar analysis
Awards & Events

2026 Cannes Film Festival lineup: Oscar analysis

Williams MBy Williams MMay 11, 2026No Comments11 Mins Read
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It’ll be a global buffet for movie lovers at the Cannes Film Festival this year — but major Hollywood titles definitely aren’t on the menu.

When the storied festival’s 79th edition begins on Tuesday, only two American films will be competing for the coveted Palme d’Or. One is The Man I Love, the latest title from independent stalwart Ira Sachs and starring Rami Malek, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Rebecca Hall in what has been described as a “musical fantasia of a city under duress.” The other is Paper Tiger, the latest feature from Cannes stalwart James Gray and starring Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson.

Longtime Cannes artistic director Thierry Frémaux noted the paucity of American films in competition when he unveiled the lineup in April. “In the U.S., it’s a moment ​of transition,” he remarked at the time. “When you have such a transition, they don’t have the projects to produce a lot of films, but I’m sure that it will come back, and we will be there waiting.”

Matt Damon

Multiple American filmmakers are represented in the out-of-competition categories, though. I Saw the TV Glow‘s Jane Schoenbrun is premiering their latest feature, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, in the Un Certain Regard section alongside Club Kid from Jordan Firstman. Meanwhile, Steven Soderbergh and Ron Howard are hosting special screenings of their respective documentaries John Lennon: The Last Interview and Avedon. And John Travolta’s directorial debut, Propeller One-Way Night Coach will premiere at Cannes ahead of its Apple TV release on May 29.

John Travolta's 'Propeller One-Way Night Coach'
‘Propeller One-Way Night Coach’Apple

Read on for Gold Derby’s analysis of what to expect from this year’s Cannes and how the festival could impact the 2027 Oscar race.

The Sinners and One Battle playbook is in full effect for the big studios

Paul Thomas Anderson and Leonardo DiCaprio on set of One Battle After Another; Delroy Lindo, Michael B. Jordan and Ryan Coogler on set of Sinners
Paul Thomas Anderson, Leonardo DiCaprio filming ‘One Battle After Another’; Delroy Lindo, Michael B. Jordan, Ryan Coogler shooting ‘Sinners’Warner Bros.

Warner Bros. dominated the 2026 awards cycle despite — or maybe cause of — keeping their big guns, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, out of the festival spotlight. Hollywood’s other major studios and filmmakers clearly took note, because one Cannes offer after another was turned down with Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, and Pixar all reportedly passing on having their respective summer contenders — Disclosure Day, The Odyssey, and Toy Story 5 — ready in time to debut on the Croisette.

In Spielberg’s case, he might still be smarting from the drubbing that Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull received when it bowed at the festival’s 2008 edition. For his part, Nolan has notably never premiered one of his movies at Cannes; in fact, he hasn’t used a film festival as a launching pad since Insomnia debuted at Tribeca way back in 2002. And while Pixar did debut Elemental as the Cannes closing night film three years ago, the movie was met with a muted reaction that didn’t materially impact its commercial or awards prospects. Instead, what ultimately powered Elemental to strong box office returns and a Best Animated Feature nod was the general scarcity of animated options that summer.

While the major studios may be sitting Cannes out, the smaller-scale Paper Tiger and The Man I Love still see value in the the festival’s spotlight. Grey’s film is being released by Neon, which has a strong track record of navigating international fare from the Croisette to the Oscar stage. And if Paper Tiger is embraced by critics — as many of the director’s films are — that gives the company lots of runway to figure out a winning strategy through the fall festival cycle and beyond.

The Man I Love, meanwhile, is still seeking distribution, and anticipated acclaim combined with a prestigious festival prize could secure a theatrical release backed by the promise of an awards campaign. It would be the first Palme d’Or for either Gray or Sachs and put them on a path previously trod by Anora‘s Sean Baker.

Doc duo

SANTA MONICA, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 18: Ron Howard attends the 12th Breakthrough Prize Ceremony at Barker Hangar on April 18, 2026 in Santa Monica, California.  (Photo by Emma McIntyre/Getty Images)
Ron Howard attends the 12th Breakthrough Prize Ceremony at Barker Hangar in April

Steven Soderbergh and Ron Howard are no strangers to Cannes. The former is a Palme d’Or winner courtesy of his breakout 1989 debut, Sex, Lies, and Videotape, and the latter opened the festival’s 2006 edition with his summer blockbuster The Da Vinci Code. This year, the duo are debuting their latest works — both of which happen to be their unique versions of celebrity documentaries — as special out of competition screenings as they pursue distribution.

Soderbergh is representing John Lennon: The Last Interview, which makes the complete audio of the late singer/songwriter’s final interview — filmed mere hours prior to his 1980 death — publicly available for the first time. Lennon was joined by his wife and collaborator, Yoko Ono, and the nearly three-hour conversation covers a wide breadth of subjects. Soderbergh has said that he used A.I. tools in the making of The Last Interview, a creative choice that has inspired no small amount of controversy online. But the filmmaker stands by the decision, telling Deadline: “I asked Sean [Lennon], ‘What do you think your dad’s take on this tech would’ve been?’ And he said, ‘Oh, he would’ve wanted to engage.'”

Howard didn’t engage in any A.I. usage for Avedon, his portrait of renowned photographer, Richard Avedon, who died in 2004. Granted full access to his subject’s extensive archives, the filmmaker tracks the way Avedon’s art evolved with American culture. “His work is fascinating and engaging and worthy, but I think it celebrates the creative energy and the possibility of expressing yourself creatively in more than one area,” Howard recently told People magazine. “You don’t have to stay in one lane as you develop a talent, explore, take some risks, take some chances, and Avedon did that.”

Beyond being Cannes veterans, both filmmakers are also Best Director winners with previous documentaries on their resumes. Depending on which platforms acquire Lennon and Avedon, Soderbergh and Howard could see each other again in the documentary races at either the Oscars or the Emmys… or both.

International Best Director contenders abound

HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 15: Joachim Trier accepts the International Feature Film award for
Joachim Trier at the 98th Academy AwardsKevin Winter/Getty Images

The Cannes-to-Oscars pipeline has been steadily powering international filmmakers into the Best Director race since 2018, when Polish auteur Paweł Pawlikowski scored a surprise nomination for his acclaimed drama Cold War, which also nabbed him the director prize at that year’s festival. (Cold War also received Oscar nods for Best International Feature and Best Cinematography.)

Since then, there’s only been one year where a Cannes-recognized filmmaker missed out on Oscar recognition — and that was in 2020 when the festival was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The recent ranks of Cannes winners-turned-Best Director nominees have included Parasite‘s Bong Joon-ho (who made history as the first South Koren director to win that prize), Triangle of Sadness‘ Ruben Östlund, The Substance‘s Coralie Fargeat, and Sentimental Value‘s Joachim Trier.

Pawlikowski is notably back in the Cannes mix this year for his latest film, Fatherland, which also happens to be one of German actress Sandra Hüller’s multiple 2027 contenders. And so is Japanese auteur Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, who is premiering the French-language drama All of a Sudden. In 2022, Hamaguchi became only the third Japanese filmmaker in Oscar history to score a Best Director nod for the Cannes-premiering Drive My Car. That film was also the first Japanese-language title to be nominated for Best Picture. And then there’s the much-loved Almodóvar, who is bringing Bitter Christmas to Cannes with eyes on returning to the Oscar race. The Spanish filmmaker was last nominated for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay for 2002’s Talk to Her, winning the latter statuette.

Besides those returning favorites, there are multiple first-time Best Director candidates on the Cannes slate, starting with Mungiu. The Romanian director won the 2007 Palme d’Or for his harrowing abortion drama 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, but the movie was notoriously snubbed by Academy voters. Fjord is Mungiu’s English-language debut and stars recent Oscar nominees Renate Reinsve and Sebastian Stan, potentially giving it a higher-profile on these shores. One of Iran’s preeminent filmmakers, Farhadi has never been nominated for Best Director despite winning two Best International Feature statuettes for 2011’s A Separation and 2016’s The Salesman. Perhaps Parallel Tales — a French-language film starring Francophile favorites Isabelle Huppert and Catherine Deneuve — will change that.

Cult fare, do care

VENICE, ITALY - SEPTEMBER 09: Director Nicolas Winding Refn  from
Nicolas Winding Refn attends the 2022 Venice International Film Festival

After a decade-long break from filmmaking, Danish auteur Nicolas Winding Refn serves up a fresh cut of cult fare to his devoted fanbase. Her Private Hell stars Sophie Thatcher as Elle and Charles Melton as Private K, two lost souls searching for missing loved ones against the backdrop of a near-future dystopia. Refn’s 2010s trio of Drive, Only God Forgives, and The Neon Demon won international acclaim and, in the case of Drive, an Oscar nod for Best Sound Editing. (At the time, many argued that Albert Brooks deserved a Best Supporting Actor nod as well for his literally transformative appearance.)

Based on that logline, this new film likely faces an uphill battle with Oscar voters unless Refn has significantly toned down his penchant for neon-soaked violence. But if he has, the director also risks alienating his acolytes who will almost certainly be selling out midnight shows of Her Private Hell in New York and Los Angeles for years to come. Between the Oscars and his cult, Refn is probably better off choosing the cult.

Speaking of cult directors, French enfant terrible Quentin Dupieux is bringing his latest kooky confection, Full Phil, to Cannes as a midnight screening. In an even kookier twist, this movie stars a pair of genuine celebrities with Woody Harrelson and Kristen Stewart playing a father and daughter who heal their rift with a memorably bizarre trip to Paris. Best known for hilarious blasts of absurdism like Smoking Causes Coughing, Mandibles, and Rubber — aka “that movie starring a rubber tire” — Full Phil could bring Dupieux to an entirely new audience, without sacrificing his wild man streak.

Sending our regards

A scene from ‘Club Kid’

No shade on the Competition titles, but the Un Certain Regard section is looking particularly strong for potential Oscar breakouts for this year. Mubi already has the rights to Schoenbrun’s latest, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, which stars Hannah Einbinder, Gillian Anderson, and Eva Victor and tells the meta story of a queer filmmaker who finds themselves tasked with reinventing a tired horror movie franchise. And Firstman’s Club Kid promises to be a spirited romp through New York City’s after hours nightclub scene with Cara Delevingne and Babylon‘s Diego Calva as our guides.

There’s also the Wim Wenders-produced I’ll Be Gone in June from German filmmaker Katharina Rivilis, which takes place against the epic backdrops of the American Southwest — much like the Wenders classic Paris, Texas. And Chilean director Manuela Martelli is premiering her sophomore feature, The Meltdown, a mystery set in ’90s-era Chile. Martelli’s first feature, 1976 (released in North America as Chile ’76) played Cannes in 2022 and received a DGA nod for First-Time Directing.

Here’s the full Cannes lineup:

Competition

Minotaur, Andrey Zvyagintsev
The Beloved, Rodrigo Sorogoyen
The Man I Love, Ira Sachs
Fatherland, Paweł Pawlikowski
Moulin, László Nemes
The Birthday Party, Léa Mysius
Fjord, Cristian Mungiu
Notre Salut, Emmanuel Marre
Gentle Monster, Marie Kreutzer
Nagi Notes, Hiroshi Fukada
Hope, Na Hong-jin
Sheep in the Box, Hirokazu Kore-eda
The Unknown, Arthur Harari
All of a Sudden, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
The Dreamed Adventure, Valeska Grisebach
Another Day, Jeanne Herry
Coward, Lukas Dhont
The Black Ball, Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
A Woman’s Life, Charline Bourgeois-Taquet
Parallel Tales, Asghar Farhadi
Bitter Christmas, Pedro Almodóvar
Paper Tiger, James Gray

Un Certain Regard

All the Lovers in the Night, Yukiko Sode
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, Jane Schoenbrun
Everytime, Sandra Wollner
Club Kid, Jordan Firstman
I’ll Be Gone in June, Katharina Rivilis
Yesterday the Eye Didn’t Sleep, Rakan Mayasi
The Meltdown, Manuela Martelli
Elephants in the Fog, Abinash Bikram Shah
Iron Boy, Louis Clichy
Ben’imana, Marie-Clémentine Dusabejambo
Congo Boy, Rafiki Fariala
Uļa, Viesturs Kairišs
Strawberries, Laïla Marrakchi
Forever Your Maternal Animal, Valentina Maurel
Words of Love, Rudi Rosenberg
Ulysse, Laetitia Masson

Out of Competition

The Electric Kiss, Pierre Salvadori
La Bataille de Gaulle: L’Age De Fer, Antonin Baudry
Karma, Guillaume Canet
Diamond, Andy Garcia
Forsaken, Vincent Garenq
Crescendo, Agnès Jaoui
Her Private Hell, Nicolas Winding Refn

Special Screenings

John Lennon: The Last Interview, Steven Soderbergh
Avedon, Ron Howard
Les Survivants du Che, Christophe Réveille
Les Matins Merveilleux, Avril Besson
Rehearsals for a Revolution, Pegah Ahangarani
L’affaire Marie-Claire, Lauriane Escaffre and Yvo Muller
Cantona, David Tryhorn and Ben Nicholas
Vesna, Rostislav Kirpicenko
Ashes, Diego Luna
Tangles, Leah Nelson
Le Triangle d’or, Helene Rosselet-Ruiz
Groundswell, Josh Tickell and Rebecca Tickell

Cannes Premiere

Visitation, Volker Schlöndorff
Propeller One-Way Night Coach, John Travolta
Kokurojo: The Samurai and the Prisoner, Kiyoshi Kurosawa
The Third Night, Daniel Auteuil
The Match, Juan Cabral and Santiago Franco
Marie Madeleine, Gessica Geneus
Aqui, Tiago Guedes
Orange-Flavoured Wedding, Christophe Honore
The End of It, Maria Martinez Bayona
Think Good, Geraldine Nakache
Visitation, Volker Schlondorff

Midnight Screenings

Species, Marion Le Coroller
Jim Queen, Marco Nguyen and Nicolas Athane
Colony, Yeon Sang-ho
Roma Elastica, Bertrand Mandico
Full Phil, Quentin Dupieux

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