Scrolling through Gold Derby’s Emmy prediction data offers competing visions of how this year’s ceremonies might unfold. While our experts from leading media outlets and the overall user base agree on most races, they don’t align on a half-dozen key categories, including Best Comedy Series (Widow’s Bay vs. Hacks) and Best Comedy Supporting Actress (Kate O’Flynn vs. Hannah Einbinder).
But who’s right?
We’ll find out which group is more accurate when the Creative Arts Emmys take place Sept. 5–6 and the Primetime ceremony airs Sept. 14. In the meantime, let’s dive into the six contests where the two-dozen industry experts clash with the more than 1,600 everyday users.
Best Comedy Series
Experts’ prediction: Widow’s Bay
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
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Margo’s Got Money Troubles
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Only Murders in the Building
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Users’ prediction: Hacks
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
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Margo’s Got Money Troubles
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Only Murders in the Building
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The professional pundits now believe Apple TV’s quirky horror show will prevail, while the users are sticking with the final season of HBO Max’s tear-jerking comedy. Widow’s Bay is the perfect example of a shiny new toy peaking at the right time — buoyed by word of mouth and industry support. But Hacks, a former Best Comedy Series champion, has the sentimental factor after sailing off into the sunset. It also received the most nominations for a comedy this year, 24, compared to 19 for Widow’s Bay.
Best Comedy Supporting Actress
Experts’ prediction: Kate O’Flynn (Widow’s Bay)
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
Users’ prediction: Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
Hannah Einbinder is hoping to make it two in a row after claiming her first-ever Emmy for the role of Ava Daniels last year. Momentum and a fond farewell could deliver her back to the stage, but there is one big issue. Einbinder is facing Kate O’Flynn, whose Widow’s Bay character, Patricia, was a key factor in that show’s Season 1 success story. Interestingly, both actresses face internal competition from their own shows — Megan Stalter for Hacks and Dale Dickey for Widow’s Bay — so vote-splitting could prove to be the X-factor that upends the experts’ and users’ predictions.
Best Comedy Directing
Experts’ prediction: Hiro Murai (Widow’s Bay)
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
Users’ prediction: Lucia Aniello (Hacks)
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
“Welcome to Widow’s Bay” and “Hacks” are two of the most talked-about episodes of the year: the former as the pilot of Widow’s Bay and the latter as the series finale of Hacks. The experts recognize that Hiro Murai, an 11-time nominee and one-time winner, could be a spoiler for establishing Widow’s Bay‘s tricky tonal balance. But the users project another win for Hacks co-creator Lucia Aniello, who won for directing that show’s pilot five years ago.
Mr. Scorsese carries industry gravitas as it chronicles the colorful life of Martin Scorsese. Notably, our experts could be biased toward the beloved filmmaker since many of them also cover the movie beat. As for The American Revolution, it is the latest historical epic directed by populist documentarian Ken Burns, already a five-time Emmy winner for The Civil War (1991), Baseball (1995), Unforgivable Blackness: The Rise and Fall of Jack Johnson (2005), and The National Parks: America’s Best Idea (2010).
This year’s doc field leans heavily on funnymen, and so there’s a scenario where Mel Brooks, John Candy, and Martin Short could cancel each other out. In that case, Emmy host and Law & Order: SVU star Mariska Hargitay could persevere for turning the camera on her own mother, Jayne Mansfield. Then there’s Ocean With David Attenborough, which doesn’t have the A-list pedigree of the other four, though it did earn the strongest marks from critics.
Best Music for Series
Experts’ prediction: Widow’s Bay
Creative Arts Emmy Awards 2026
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A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
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Users’ prediction: A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Creative Arts Emmy Awards 2026
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A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
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David Fleming’s hauntingly comedic score from Widow’s Bay was designed first and foremost to “focus on the town itself,” the composer told Gold Derby. Fleming could easily ride a Widow’s Bay wave to the podium — but there’s also a Game of Thrones angle to watch out for from A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms composer Dan Romer. The parent series won this race twice (2018 and 2019) for Ramin Djawadi, and Romer’s goal for the prequel was to create a score that “feels like a Western” but that “sounds like it takes place in Westeros,” he told us.
