How Madonna’s historic VMA nominations could signal strong Grammys

When the MTV Video Music Awards nominations were unveiled last week, the biggest surprise was Madonna’s historic haul: a field-leading 11 nods across fan-voted and professional categories for her newest record, Confessions II. The album has been one of the year’s biggest success stories, offering a refreshing update on her original Confessions album from 2005. Beyond being surprising, Madonna‘s nominations are significant for several reasons.

For starters, it reinforces the critical consensus that Confessions II is at the minimum her best album in two decades, since the initial Confessions, and possibly her best of the 2000s. Confessions II generated immense buzz, earning an 83 score on Metacritic, surpassing the original’s 80 rating. The breathless reaction helped memory-hole recent releases like the middling Madame X, and reestablished Madonna as one of the best purveyors of dance music.

Her VMA showing also underscores her status as the Queen of Pop. In the spotlight Video of the Year lineup, she is nominated alongside some of the current crop of generational artists, including Ariana Grande, Taylor Swift, and Sabrina Carpenter (who features on Confessions II), all of whom cite Madonna as a major influence. This represents a shift for the VMAs in their approach to honoring culturally important contributions from legacy artists.

Further, Madonna’s nominations also suggest the VMAs may be moving away from simply name-checking hit songs to acknowledging the art form itself. While Confessions II is a success, bigger commercial hits were competing for those spots. Recent VMA slates prioritized popularity over craft, but honoring the Confessions II short film suggests the committee is taking video production seriously again. (Another data point for this theory: the nomination for Gener8ion’s cinematic, dystopian “Storm,” featuring Yung Lean, an epic video many discovered for the first time through the announcements.)

Her success accumulating VMA nods raises an intriguing question: Is Madonna a serious Grammy contender? The Recording Academy loves comeback stories, particularly for legacy acts producing work that feels fresh and vital (think Beck’s Morning Phase or Taylor Swift’s Folklore). That, along with the passion for Madonna’s new music, could land her in the main categories as well as genre fields like Best Music Video or Best Music Film. Having never won in the General Field, she also could tap into the overdue narrative and make a run for the top awards.

There’s historical precedent on her side. Madonna’s best-ever showing at the VMAs came in 1998 for Ray of Light. The album and title track won six categories, including her first (and so far only) Video of the Year prize. The VMA success was replicated at the 1999 Grammys: Ray of Light earned her three Grammy Awards (Best Pop Album, Best Dance Performance, Best Short-Form Music Video; it also won for packaging) — the most she’s collected in a single ceremony — and was also nominated for Album of the Year and Record of the Year.

We’ll see on Sept. 27, when the VMAs air, whether the first domino falls in what could be a similar major awards run for Madonna.

So far, the odds are promising.Confessions II has moved into the No. 8 slot with a 51% chance for an Album of the Year nod (up 5 points since the VMA announcement), per Gold Derby’s prediction data. The eight finalists will be unveiled on Nov. 16.

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As for the MTV Video Music Awards, based on the initial Gold Derby prediction data, Madonna trails only all-time VMA champ Taylor Swift in the top two categories.