The sailing couldn’t have looked smoother for Hacks heading into the Max original’s fifth and final season. Last year’s winner for Best Comedy Series at the Primetime Emmys, The Studio, wouldn’t be back with a second season in time to compete for the title two years in a row. And despite eventual strong reviews for the last season of The Bear, the Television Academy’s waning enthusiasm for the drama-leaning comedy seemed to continue apace.
With the two shows that most recently defeated Hacks in the category more or less off the table for the 78th Emmy Awards, there seemed to be little standing in the way of Deborah Vance (Jean Smart) and Ava Daniels (Hannah Einbinder) taking a victory lap before their final bows.
But then, just a couple weeks after the Season 5 premiere of Hacks, a spooky fog began to roll in from over on Apple TV.
Widow’s Bay, created by Katie Dippold and starring Matthew Rhys, certainly had some Emmys pedigree apparent from the start, but the slow build of a rabid fandom over the course of its 10-week season turned it into a formidable competitor for Hacks.
Enthusiasm for the freshman horror-comedy reached new heights recently — specifically among the experts on Gold Derby, who now consider it nearly as likely a winner in Best Comedy Series as Hacks.
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
1.
2.
3.
4.
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
5.
6.
Only Murders in the Building
7.
8.
At the time of publishing, the experts on Gold Derby still favor Hacks over Widow’s Bay in the top category, but only by an 11-point margin. And the latter is on the ascent. Apple TV’s horror-comedy is up two points, while the HBO Max show is down by the same total.
Over in the combined odds, which count both general users of Gold Derby and the experts, Hacks holds a far healthier lead over Widow’s Bay, with almost 75% of players expecting the veteran show to win.
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
1.
2.
3.
4.
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
5.
6.
Only Murders in the Building
7.
8.
But whatever signals the experts are picking up on in terms of Widow Bay‘s upswing, the effect is even stronger in Best Comedy Supporting Actress, where series breakout Kate O’Flynn is favored over last year’s winner in the category, Einbinder, 55% to 36%.
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
Meanwhile, the same holds true in the Creative Arts categories. For Best Comedy Guest Actress, Betty Gilpin is slowly narrowing the gap with Kaitlin Olson, who still holds a 68% to 25% lead among users.
Creative Arts Emmy Awards 2026
But there’s one category that Widow’s Bay is way is out in front, and it’s a key one: Best Comedy Series Casting. The Apple TV hit has an 85% to 14% advantage in a bellwether race that has forecast the comedy series winner in nine of the past 12 years.
