Welcome back to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. With only one week until the 2026 Tonys, the competition for the top prize of Best Musical seems closer than it has in years, so we break down the four categories which may indicate what production will ultimately prevail.
David Buchanan: Sam, we are one week away from the 2026 Tony Awards, and we’re in the uncomfortable — but exciting! — position of having no clear front-runner for the biggest prize of the night, Best Musical. It’s the polar opposite of last year, where everybody was accurately predicting Maybe Happy Ending as the winner out of a crowd of contenders. This time around, we only saw six new musicals bow on Broadway, but we have a genuinely suspenseful showdown between three of the four nominees: The Lost Boys, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), and Schmigadoon!
To suss out the likeliest outcome, we’re going to analyze the handful of categories that might accurately inform what ultimately wins when the Best Musical envelop is opened on Sunday, June 7, including toss-up races in Book, Score, and featured acting. But first, what’s your overall sense of where this contest stands with less than a week of Tony voting to go?
Sam Eckmann: Last week was arguably the most important week of Tony season for this year’s nominated productions. That’s because many out-of-town voters were in New York for the Broadway League’s annual Spring Road Conference, where shows invite presenters from the “road” in the hopes of drumming up interest for national tour stops. It doubles, of course, as a major campaign week where productions treat voters to talk-backs, dinners, meet-and-greets with nominees, and performances. How much do these campaign efforts matter to voters? It’s hard to say. But one side effect that we can say with certainty is that the voters get more talkative!
The industry voters that I’ve spoken with recently have enjoyed all four Best Musical nominees, but when it comes down to deciding on a winner, most of them are voting for The Lost Boys or Schmigadoon! And the split is fairly even. The Lost Boys represents epic spectacle and soaring emotions while Schmigadoon! is a love letter to classic musical theater. Schmigadoon! is clearly the show that has come out ahead in many of the early precursor awards, so their team has to be feeling great about their chances.
But I foresee a tight Best Musical race between these two tuners, which will likely be separated by an incredibly small number of votes. It’s quite possible that Best Score and Best Book of a Musical will be guide us towards our Best Musical winner, especially since the directing race — which was the deciding factor for the upset victory achieved by The Outsiders two years ago — feels destined to go towards one of the revivals. Do you have an instinct on what is taking Best Score?
Buchanan: I am deeply conflicted about Best Score, mostly because The Lost Boys and Schmigadoon! are entirely different types of shows and their music and lyrics reflect it. This category reminds me a bit of the 2024 Tonys, when voters opted for the “conventional” musical theatre score from Suffs by Shaina Taub over the indie, folk, Americana-inflected score of The Outsiders.
If they’re leaning toward that impulse again this year, there’s no question that Schmigadoon! impeccably scratches that itch. And with good reason, since it’s paying homage to the fabulous scores of Golden Age musicals. But I’ve heard some grumblings about the fact that the score is not 100% original for the stage production, despite being deemed eligible in the category. A similar scenario didn’t stop Tony voters from awarding Newsies over a decade ago, albeit in a much weaker year.
While I could absolutely see Schmigadoon! winning and setting up a strong trajectory towards Best Musical, I’m currently predicting The Lost Boys for the pure infectiousness of the score. Ever since I saw Michael Arden’s epic production, I’ve had those eight notes the vampire band sings echoing in my mind. “Have to Have You” is an absolutely propulsive and thrilling number, but also a bit uncharacteristic of the Tonys to award.
Not to fret, though, since there’s plenty of more traditional songs to win them over, including Shoshana Bean‘s act two showstopper “Wild.” It doesn’t hurt that the production has shrewdly released those highlights and more, including “Belong to Someone” from an earlier recording session for folks to revisit — and I have been doing so repeatedly. The only detriment for the show might be how ballad-heavy it comes across, but I think the highs offset some of the repetition.
I would also like to flag the possibility that Two Strangers nabs this prize. It’s also a bit of an oddity in the category since the show is a two-hander, alternating between Sam Tutty and Christiani Pitts‘ solos and their duets. But talk about catchy and memorable songs! It’s been six months since I saw the production, but I can still hum the opening number “New York,” the act one closer “American Express,” and I remember how moved I was at the emotional sucker-punch “About to Go In.” I have Two Strangers in second place as a spoiler, but I think it has larger potential of winning Best Book instead. What’s your take on Score, and do you think there will be a split between this category and Book?
Eckmann: I do see this category as a mirror to Best Musical, where The Lost Boys and Schmigadoon! will duke it out for the win. If I had to say which score voters are more drawn to overall, it would be the lush music from Schmigadoon! It expertly pays homage to some of the best Golden Age classics in the canon and they achieve a thrillingly grand sound from the orchestra. For that reason I expect them to take home the Best Orchestrations award, as long as they can fend off the disco beats infused into Cats: The Jellicle Ball. But I’ve also heard the same grumblings that the majority of the most affective musical numbers originated in the television series. I know one voter who said quite succinctly that he adores the show, but can’t bring himself to vote for pastiche in the Original Score category.
I don’t think every voter will be such a stickler, but if enough of them are taking this issue to heart, then The Lost Boys could eke out a victory. Sure the musical is packed with ballads, but if they are all delivered with the type of raw power that Shoshana Bean gives to “Wild,” does it really matter? The Rescues — the rock band who composed the songs — have given The Lost Boys a truly epic sound that envelopes you as an audience member. When trying to figure out winners in competitive categories we often suggest replacing the word “best” in the category with “most.” With electric guitars and percussion flying at you, it’s hard not to describe this show as having the “most” score. So for now, I’m giving a very slight edge to The Rescues in this category.
Two Strangers certainly has its fans as well. “American Express” and “New York” are frequently touted as some of the favorite new songs this season, but ultimately I think writers Jim Barne and Kit Buchan are more competitive as a spoiler in the Book of a Musical race. They aren’t afraid to let their two characters develop through many extended scenes of dialogue, which is something that contemporary musicals seem to be afraid to do as of late. That structure helps maintain the show’s intimacy, allows Tutty and Pitts to dig deep with their characterizations, and helps the songs build from a natural place. Do you think Two Strangers can pull off a win here, or will one of the other comedies take the trophy?
Buchanan: I think Best Book comes down to either Schmigadoon! or Two Strangers. Librettist Robert Horn’s two nominations for musical comedies Tootsie and Shucked immediately come to mind as strong analogs, speaking of the numerous comedies we have this year. In the season in which Hadestown nearly ran the table, his screen-to-stage adaptation of Tootsie prevailed.
Schmigadoon! could certainly win here and it is currently my pick, given how smartly and entertainingly it skewers tropes of those beloved musicals and their foibles, charts clear arcs for its two main characters, and gives its large ensemble memorable lines and character traits. The scene of Doc and his returning fiancée spoofing The Sound of Music especially stands out in my mind! Voters’ potential gripes with the originality of the score shouldn’t hold as much water in this category, either, as Cinco Paul had the challenging task of adapting six half-hour episodes of the streaming series into a streamlined musical. as we’ve seen countless times before, it’s not as easy as it appears to successfully transplant something from the screen to the stage.
I had Two Strangers out front for a long while, and I still see a viable path to its winning here. The strongest factor in its favor is its originality. And for a musical that’s billed as a quirky comedy, it does explore some deeply emotional topics including familial estrangement and quarter-life ennui while never losing its balanced tone. That’s an impressive feat! The pairing of skeptic and eternal optimist makes for great duo of characters, too. What’s holding me back from sticking with this pick all the way to the ceremony is its under-performance at the smaller industry awards including Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle, which may indicate to us a real momentum shift in these races.
As for the other comedy in the field, Titaníque boasts some truly clever and uproariously funny jokes. Still,I hesitate to predict it because it has the thinnest of narratives as a parody musical, and I think that puts it at a disadvantage. That’s not to discount the work it does of incorporating Celine Dion’s songbook to the story beats of James Cameron’s Titanic. Also, when you have a fire-hydrant flow of jokes and niche cultural references, not every one will be aces, and in a scrum of a category like this, I think voters will veer toward a more holistically solid choice. Do you size up the field similarly?
Eckmann: I too am currently predicting Schmigadoon! in this race, for all the reasons you mentioned above. But I can see Two Strangers or Titaníque easily pulling off a win, too. I had Titaníque winning Book of a Musical for a long while as it gives voters an opportunity to reward all three of the well-liked creators. Plus, I see lead actress coalescing around Ragtime’s Caissie Levy, so if anyone wants to recognize this major career moment for Marla Mindelle, it probably has to be with the award for Book.
Ultimately, I think some of those jokes you mentioned may not have a very wide appeal. As a gay millennial, the script is basically tailor-made for me and I cackled at every reference, whether it was a niche early YouTube hit or the well-placed use of the Beast’s transformation music from Beauty and the Beast. So the better bet is that the more widely-accessible humor of Schmigadoon! prevails.
The Lost Boys is being unfairly discounted in this category, I think, as I’ve discovered that there are a great many voters who have not seen the original 1987 film. If they had, they would know that David Hornsby and Chris Hoch have made some incredibly smart storytelling decisions in their adaptation; including rethinking the gang of vampires as a punk rock band and excising the grandfather character in favor of a more defined character arc for Bean’s Lucy. But it’s not going to be enough to overtake the other three contenders.
I suspect The Lost Boys will make up for the loss in at least one acting race though. Bean has emerged as a consensus pick for Featured Actress in a Musical. She has a larger part than most of her fellow nominees, puts her impeccable musicianship to use on several killer songs, and after 25 years on Broadway voters are beginning to think “It’s time.”
Many pundits have penciled in Nichelle Lewis for this award, but the Ragtime performer wasn’t nominated by any other awards group this season. Those precursor awards have different voting bodies from the Tony Awards, but this still feels like a red flag. Instead, I’ve sensed growing momentum and goodwill for Ana Gasteyer. She has a ball playing the Schmigadoon! villain, nails her tricky patter song, and has provided endless humor this season thanks to her hysterical alter ego “September Davis.”
Featured Actress may ultimately wind up as yet another The Lost Boys vs. Schmigadoon! showdown, but for now I’m calling this one for Bean. Are we on the same page? Are there any other Best Musical tea leaves we can read from the acting races?
Buchanan: Yes, Bean has really seized frontrunner status since the nominations were announced, and I’m also predicting her for the win. We mentioned her standout song “Wild” earlier, and often in the featured races, one big, memorable number like that is enough to get a contender across the finish line. But she also has a second, short number late in Act Two, “Michael,” that I thought was the emotional highlight of the production. She truly works wonders in this role and transforms Lucy into the heart of the musical, akin to Buena Vista Social Club‘s Natalie Venetia Belcon last season, who won for delivering a similarly moving performance and who was the standout amongst a large ensemble cast.
I’ve also considered Gasteyer because of her delightful “Tribulation,” which she delivers with aplomb and which received a huge, sustained ovation at the press performance I attended. But aside from that number and the climactic election scene that soon follows, her stage time is fairly limited. She would make a deserving winner, though, and I think a victory here would be a particularly strong bellwether that Schmigadoon! wins the top honor.
One factor that made me switch from my earlier prediction of Lewis is the probability of Ragtime running the board of acting categories. I’m positive about Joshua Henry winning Best Actor, and just a notch less confident about Levy in Best Actress. With Ben Levi Ross winning numerous industry prizes as Mother’s Younger Brother, I’m not sure most voters will check off Ragtime in four categories.
To your question about what other tea leaves we could read for Best Musical, Featured Actor wouldn’t seem like one, as the frontrunners there are both from revivals (André De Shields for Cats: The Jellicle Ball and Ross), but it would be a boon for The Lost Boys if Ali Louis Bourzgui somehow usurped them both and Titaníque‘s Olivier Award winner Layton Williams for the win. He is so devilishly magnetic as vampire David, gives the production so much of its joie de vivre, and has importantly been barnstorming the press in these weeks of Tony voting. I was really thrilled to see him get nominated after his snub for The Who’s Tommy two years ago, and if he doesn’t win this year, I suspect he will some day.
