Welcome back to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. With less than three weeks until the 2026 Tonys, we read between the lines of recent industry awards to determine what trends are emerging amongst the winners.
David Buchanan: Sam, since we offered our first reactions to the Tony nominations, there has been a lot of activity among the smaller voting bodies in the industry. Those kudos include the winners of the Outer Critics Circle, New York Drama Critics’ Circle, Drama League, and, just last night, Drama Desk Awards, plus the nominations for the Dorian Awards.
We always warn that one shouldn’t put too much stock in these quasi-precursors to the Tony Awards, not only because there’s little to no overlap among the voting bodies, but also because eligibility is much different. For instance, Cats: The Jellicle Ball was not eligible in most categories at the Outer Critics Circle this year because its off-Broadway production at PAC contended — and won the top honor — last year, but it was eligible to compete at the Drama League. Ragtime had a strong showing with that latter group, winning Outstanding Revival of a Musical, Direction for Lear deBessonet, and Distinguished Performance for Joshua Henry.
How much are you reading into the momentum for Ragtime coming out of these awards?
Sam Eckmann: For months I’ve held true to the thought that Ragtime vs. Cats: The Jellicle Ball would be the closest race of the Tony Awards. Ragtime has done everything it needed to do to build momentum at this phase of the race, but it’s important to understand the makeup of the various New York theater awards bodies before calling a race over and done.
Ragtime’s victories at the Drama League Awards are particularly impressive because the Drama League allows off-Broadway transfers to compete for their kudos twice. So even though The Jellicle Ball was nominated last year, it earned identical Drama League nominations this year for the Broadway iteration. This is the only time the two productions will face off before the Tony Awards. But the Drama League membership consists of a wide array of people, many of whom are in the industry but others who are simply ardent theater aficionados, so their tastes do not always align with the Tony voting body.
Case in point: the hit revival of Into the Woods won the Drama League prizes for Musical Revival and Director of a Musical for Lear deBessonet in 2023. But that show went on to lose both the corresponding Tony categories to the Michael Arden-helmed Parade. Drama League members clearly embrace deBessonet’s style since they’ve given her staging of Ragtime the same two trophies.
The Drama Desk Awards also gave their Director of a Musical prize to deBessonet, but it’s hard to use this win as a predictor since she was the sole Broadway nominee in that category. While the Drama Desk nominators are a small pool who see nearly every piece of New York theater, the entire voting body decides the winners. And in this phase, Broadway productions historically have a major advantage since they are more widely seen by the larger pool of voters. There are many other instances of this trend at the Sunday night Drama Desk ceremony, including Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) winning Lyrics, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone winning Costume Design of a Play, Death of a Salesman winning Lighting Design of a Play, and The Balusters winning Best Play.
Then consider the recent Dorian Theater Award nominations. Cats: The Jellicle Ball was not eligible for a majority of categories there, yet that group was clearly eager to shower it with affection in every category they could. Ballroom icon Leiomy snatched a featured performance nomination as one of the only awards-eligible new cast members, the new design elements were nominated, and the show took three of five slots in Dorian’s “Broadway Showstopper” category which recognizes outstanding production numbers. Those voters went out of their way to show how much they still adore this production.
Ultimately, I think this musical revival battle comes down to the Best Director category. Much of the creative success of Cats: The Jellicle Ball is a result of directors Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch pulling apart this musical by the seams. They’ve completely reexamined the show and made it feel fresh and relevant, with totally unexpected staging. That narrative is more in line with recent director winners at the Tonys than deBessonet’s straightforward approach to Ragtime, which puts the focus on the performances rather than a new staging concept.
But, I should point out that this is deBessonet’s inaugural season as artistic director of Lincoln Center Theater. It’s quite possible that the industry wants to crown her just as she cements herself as one of the most important creative voices in the city. Ultimately, we need to be looking more towards where the industry sentiment is headed in this regard when trying to predict Musical Revival, rather than how many wins Ragtime can score with other awards bodies.
Have any consistent trends made you reconsider who is ahead or behind in the acting categories?
Buchanan: Speaking of the musical directing race, here’s one important instance where these awards were a reliable bellwether in the past: Just last year, Michael Arden unexpectedly swept the Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk, winning the latter two prizes over Jamie Lloyd, who many folks had out front all season long for his bold reimagining of Sunset Blvd. This year’s race isn’t perfectly analogous, of course, but I do think this signals to us that we cannot shortchange deBessonet’s chances for the victory.
These early awards have been persuasive in the play categories. Considering how insanely competitive the Best Play Revival category was heading into the nominations — it’s still shocking that great productions like Marjorie Prime, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, and Bug all missed out, right? — it does seem like Death of a Salesman has pulled far ahead of the whole field to become the presumptive front-runner for the prize, winning the Outer Critics Circle, Drama League, and Drama Desk prizes, as well as the New York Drama Critics’ Circle Award for Best Ensemble. The same goes for director Joe Mantello, who has claimed those first three prizes, though he hasn’t had to face off against Whitney White for Liberation yet.
To your question about the acting categories, ever since I saw Death of a Salesman back in early April, I’ve been predicting Nathan Lane to win the Tony instead of the category front-runner and Olivier Award-winner John Lithgow for Giant. Ironically, you and I are the only two experts predicting a Lane victory right now! Even though it’s only one instance, I think Lane winning the Outer Critics Circle Award in a direct head-to-head with Lithgow bodes very well for his chances, and gives me confidence betting against the heavy front-runner.
Lithgow did regain some ground last night at the Drama Desk Awards, where he won one of the two Lead Performance in a Play trophies alongside Lesley Manville. While I wouldn’t discount that victory, I do wonder how much of an impact Laurie Metcalf’s nomination in the lead category for Salesman, rather than featured, where she has competed and won elsewhere and earned the nomination for the Tony, impacted Lane? I could definitely see some voters gravitating toward her, even in the lead race. How about you? Who else has newfound wind in their Tony sails?
Eckmann: I think the overall industry admiration for this revival of Death of a Salesman has reinforced my confidence in Lane winning the race over Lithgow. It’s a close call. Both men are giving career-defining performances. But anecdotally I have noticed an overall softer response to Giant than the love-fest I’m seeing for Salesman. That’s not to say that I’ve encountered anyone who dislikes the play, but if I ask industry folks what their favorite shows of the season are, Salesman is frequently one of the first productions they mention.
The same folk will go on to cite other front-runners like Ragtime, Cats: The Jellicle Ball, and Liberation, but Giant seems to be somewhere in the middle of many people’s rankings. So in a nail-biting lead actor race, I’m giving the edge to the performer in the show that seems to be one of everyone’s favorites. Wins with the Outer Critics Circle and Drama League would seem to support this line of thinking. But the Drama Desk Awards kept Lithgow alive, since he and Lesley Manville were named the winners of Lead Performance in a Play
The acting races that are most difficult to predict might be the ones where these smaller awards bodies offer little to no data for us to sift through. Take for instance Featured Actress in a Musical. The Lost Boys songstress Shoshana Bean is the only Tony nominee to net multiple other nominations this season, having registered with the Drama League and Dorian Awards. Does that make her a front-runner? It’s hard to use precursors as a basis here.
Fellow Tony nominees Ana Gasteyer and Rachel Dratch were nominated at the Dorians but nowhere else. Nichelle Lewis and Hannah Cruz, who have given Broadway audiences some of the most talked about vocal pyrotechnics of the season, weren’t nominated for any of these other awards. Bean makes sense as the eventual Tony winner thanks to her ability to take a song like “Wild” an knock it out of the park in a way that few performers could ever do. But the precursor awards haven’t give us enough trends to call this race confidently.
Featured Actor in a Musical has a little bit more to go on, since every Tony-nominated performer in that category has been nominated elsewhere with the lone exception of Bryce Pinkham. The Chess scene-stealer would have to pull off a major upset to win over the other actors who seem to be registering across the board. André De Shields won the Dorian and Outer Critics Circle Awards last year for Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Ben Levi Ross won the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle awards this year for Ragtime.
And though he hasn’t picked up a prize yet, I know many voters who are head over heels for Titanique’s Layton Williams. The fact that he received Drama Desk and Dorian nominations when Titanique was otherwise mostly ineligible for those ceremonies makes me think that he could be a spoiler in the race. Ultimately, no single performer is steamrolling his way through the season. So like in most Tony Awards categories, our intuition will likely serve as a better guide than any precursor award winners.
Buchanan: Intuition should help us suss out the victor for the top prize of Best Musical as well, especially as it seems from these early awards that Schmigadoon! is pulling away from the field. As of last night, it has now won both the Outer Critics Circle and the Drama Desk. Its Outer Critics Circle victory might be most telling, since it is the only instance where the Golden Age musical homage actually faced off against both The Lost Boys and Two Strangers.
The nominators for the Drama Desks weren’t too keen on Lost Boys, as it didn’t even get nominated for Best Musical there, as they opted for three off-Broadway musicals instead. But it didn’t walk away from last night’s ceremony empty-handed, winning scenic and lighting design trophies and tying Schmigadoon!‘s tally of two total wins. We know Tony nominators responded much more enthusiastically to the Michael Arden-led musical, too, so despite Schmigadoon!‘s strong run of late, I’m not ready to declare this Best Musical race decided just yet.
