Who will be the fairest of them all at a very crowded Mother’s Day box office?
While most tracking services are betting on the violent video game adaptation Mortal Kombat II to prevail and top the North American chart with $40 million or more — one research firm is even suggesting $45 million to $49 million — New Line and parent company Warner Bros. are predicting a far more conservative opening in the $35 million range for a worldwide launch anywhere between $65 million and $80 million.
In 2021, Mortal Kombat was by all accounts a resounding hit on streaming when launching simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max due to the ongoing pandemic and a badly lagging box office, where the martial arts movie debuted to $23 million on its way to topping out at a tepid $42 million domestically and $84.4 million globally.
While the actual number of streaming views was never revealed, a sequel came together relatively quickly, with Simon McQuoid returning to helm from a script by Jeremy Slater and Karl Urban joining the franchise as fan favorite character Johnny Cage, a washed up ’90s action star called to take part in a tournament that will determine the fate of Earthrealm.
New Line and Warners have good reason to play it safe in its estimates, since the Mortal Kombat sequel could find itself in a close race with holdover The Devil Wears Prada 2, which is fast on its way to becoming the biggest female-led film since Warner Bros.’ Barbie in 2023 after kicking off the summer box office last weekend with a domestic debut of $77.2 million domestically and $234 million globally.
Prada 2 has been enjoying brisk weekday business — it certainly didn’t hurt that the Met Gala took place May 4, the Monday following its opening — and should clear the $300 million mark in worldwide ticket sales before Mother’s Day weekend gets underway. By the end of Sunday, May 10, which is Mother’s Day, the 20th Century and Disney sequel should have $450 million or more in the bank as it prepares to cross $500 million.
Both Mortal Kombat and Prada hover in the 77 percent range in regard to their Rotten Tomatoes critics’ score. (THR‘s review isn’t so keen on Mortal Kombat II but concedes it “determinedly caters to its devoted fans, who don’t seem to mind that the word ‘combat’ isn’t really spelled with a k.”
Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic, which is heading into its third weekend, also remains a formidable contender, particularly since kids are the film’s biggest fans and have hence turned Michael into a family pic, answering the question if the film would play to families given the real-life controversies and allegations of abuse Jackson faced, but which are sidestepped in the movie. The film could earn another $30 million in North America alone this weekend.
Michael has already grossed north of $400 million at the worldwide box office to rank as one of the top-grossing music biopics of all time, not adjusted for inflation. The big is Bohemian Rhapsody, which sports a global total of $911 million. While Michael should soon overtake the $216 million earned by the Freddie Mercury biopic domestically, it is unlikely to match its worldwide tally.
Speaking of families, Amazon MGM’s critically adored The Sheep Detectives is tracking to open in the $12 million to $15 million range domestically. The comedy-mystery is based on the 2005 bestselling German novel Three Bags Full, and follows a flock of talking sheep who are determined to solve the suspicious death of their beloved shepherd, voiced by Hugh Jackman, who had read them detective novels on a regular basis despite having no idea they could understand him.
Sheep Detectives currently sports a coveted 96 percent critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, and is produced by Working Title and Three Strange Angels Productions, with Phil Lord and Christopher Miller listed among the executive producers.
Lord and Miller, directors of 2026 box office hit Project Hail Mary, aren’t the only A-list filmmakers with new projects on the Mother’s Day menu.
Paramount is opening James Cameron’s new concert documentary, Billie Eilish — Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D), in theaters across the U.S. Tracking has the film opening anywhere from $6 million to $9 million. Cameron pioneered special 3D cameras designed to make moviegoers feel as if they were part of a live experience that he used when filming Eilish.
