Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. This week, we discuss our final 2026 nominations predictions in the 12 top categories, from the locks to the long shots.
David Buchanan: Sam, today we’re continuing our Tony Talk tradition of debating our predictions in the dozen top races with just days to go before the nominations are announced. Even though we have a thinner field of eligible productions this season than last year — 30 Tony-contending shows versus 42 — there are still countless suspenseful contests for us to discuss.
Best Musical
Tony Awards Nominations 2026
Buchanan: Unlike last season’s overabundance of new musicals, we only have six eligible productions this year, which means only four guaranteed nominees. Also unlike last season, the field is easy to predict. I think we both have Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), The Lost Boys, Schmigadoon!, and Titaníque as the four nominees; I would be extremely surprised to see either Beaches or Queen of Versailles crash the lineup, even if they manage a nomination here or there in other categories. There’s no need to overthink this one, right?
Sam Eckmann: David, I’m so thankful to start this conversation with something easy! I cannot envision a scenario where any of the four frontrunners you mentioned are missing from the Best Musical category. No need for second guessing. This lineup is locked in.
Best Play
Tony Awards Nominations 2026
Eckmann: After the star-driven spring events of Dog Day Afternoon and The Fear of 13 mostly disappointed with critics, the lineup for Best Play is looking almost as certain as the musical race. I feel quite confident that Liberation, The Balusters, Giant, and Little Bear Ridge Road will all be named on Tuesday morning. There is a slight chance that James Graham’s Punch could muscle its way in since it recently claimed the Olivier Award. But Little Bear Ridge Road is likely the production that would be snubbed for Punch. And I just can’t imagine nominators will give up the chance of feting the Broadway debut of Samuel D. Hunter, especially after the New York Drama Critics Circle awarded him with their Best Play prize.
Buchanan: Yes, we’re entirely in sync on those four Best Play nominees, too. I do think the Drama Critics Circle victory for Little Bear Ridge Road is a good bellwether for its nominations prospects, and it should help bring that acclaimed piece of writing back into the Broadway headlines on the eve of Tony nominations voting. The other three productions are all on extremely solid footing. We’ll soon see if Liberation gets a boost on its way to the Tony ceremony with a citation for the Pulitzer Prize for Drama.
Best Musical Revival
Tony Awards Nominations 2026
Buchanan: With even fewer eligible productions in this category than Best Musical or Best Play, we are only guaranteed three nominations. No doubt, Ragtime and Cats: The Jellicle Ball are locks and will compete in a tight contest for the win in June. But I do think that third spot is fairly up for grabs between Chess and The Rocky Horror Show. Neither production was universally praised or panned by critics, and both have a healthy dose of ardent supporters and detractors. Based on the other categories I’m predicting each show to get into and the strength of the underlying material, I’m predicting Rocky Horror. But it honestly wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a close enough vote tally amongst the nominators that we get an expanded lineup with both shows. Which of those two are you predicting for your final spot, and what’s motivating your decision?
Eckmann: I too have gone for The Rocky Horror Show in my final spot. Roundabout Theatre Company has a solid track record of getting nominated in this category, and the show has been on a successful PR blitz thanks to its star-studded cast. But I definitely don’t feel confident in its nomination. Plenty of audience members have returned to Chess in recent months and reported on a show that feels tighter and stronger overall than when it first opened. Might the nominators have also attended recently and given the show renewed consideration? I think this is the category most primed for an extra nomination slot because I can see a statistical tie between Chess and Rocky Horror for third place. But for now I am sticking with the Transylvanians in my predictions.
Best Play Revival
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Eckmann: This is the toughest category of the “Big 4” because it’s stuffed to the brim with excellent productions. But based on industry response I think four shows have solidified themselves at the top of the race: Death of a Salesman, Becky Shaw, Oedipus, and Joe Turner’s Come and Gone. I’ve waffled between Bug, Every Brilliant Thing, Fallen Angels, and Marjorie Prime for my fifth and final slot. Some audiences found Bug to be a tough watch and it was snubbed by Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk voters. Every Brilliant Thing is beloved, but its narrative is more focused on star Daniel Radcliffe than the actual play. Fallen Angels is a delicious romp, but there may not be room for a light comedy in this lineup. So I’m maintaining that Marjorie Prime, with its astounding cast and timely AI-themed story, will be remembered.
Buchanan: I have the exact same final five productions, even though this is indeed one of the most challenging categories to predict in a truly exceptional year for play revivals. I do think both Bug and Fallen Angels are on the cusp of the category, and it pained me to drop Bug from my predictions. I thought David Cromer’s production was incredibly engaging, disturbing, and timely, even though written three decades ago. Tracy Letts would earn a nomination as playwright if it lands in this category, which could boost its prospects, as he continues to be one of our most esteemed living writers for the theatre. But I dropped it instead of, say, Marjorie Prime, which also closed in the fall, predominantly because nominators could choose to honor it solely for Carrie Coon, who received strong notices even from folks who didn’t love for the play overall. I think Marjorie Prime also had a stronger overall emotional resonance, in the pulled-heart-strings sense, which is always a factor.
Best Actress (Musical)
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Buchanan: I have Caissie Levy far out front for her career-first Tony nomination for Ragtime, followed by Christiani Pitts as one excellent half of the cast of Two Strangers. I’ve been surprised that some of the spring awards have been nominating either Pitts or lead actor Sam Tutty, not both, but with a full field of five contenders in each category at the Tonys, I think her nomination is very secure. Then, I’ve picked the comedic performances of Sara Chase in Schmigadoon! and Marla Mindelle in Titaníque. The fifth and final spot in the category has been giving me significant pause, though. Even though Beaches received less-than-stellar notices, Jessica Vosk turns in a winning performance, and she’s a beloved veteran in the industry originating her first role on Broadway. When I saw Chess back in November during press performances, I didn’t feel Lea Michele had fully unlocked Florence yet, even though there’s no question her vocal performance was already fully realized. Plus, the Tony eligibility committee just moved Stephanie Hsu from Rocky Horror into this category from our anticipated placement in Featured Actress. Based on the performances I attended, I am stubbornly sticking with Vosk as Beaches‘ likely sole nomination, but I could easily switch to Michele by Tuesday morning. Who makes your top five?
Eckmann: I’m also predicting Levy, Mindelle, Chase, and Pitts. It is indeed odd that Pitts and co-star Tutty haven’t landed with every New York awards body so far. I think that might be because Two Strangers asks them to embody a more naturalistic acting style. Their performances are impressive and charming, but perhaps there’s a chance that they are getting lost amid “bigger” scene-chewing competition? As such, I moved Pitts down to fourth place. The last slot is tough to call, but I’ve ultimately gone with Lea Michele. She could still cash in on the good will she earned by transforming the latest Funny Girl revival into a financial success, and the Chess PR team has done an excellent job at keeping her top-of-mind at precisely the right moment. Speaking of PR though, Vosk hasn’t stopped her grand tour through the interview circuit, and she just released a hilarious video of her singing “Otto Titsling,” a popular comedy tune from the Beaches film, while being accompanied by Marc Shaiman. I won’t be surprised if her charm offense manages to score a nomination.
Best Actor (Musical)
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Eckmann: The inclusion of Rocky Horror’s Andrew Durand in this field means there are nine eligible men, which guarantees five nominees. For those of us fretting over predictions, this was a sigh of relief. There’s been a clear top five in my mind for a while now: Joshua Henry’s career-defining performance in Ragtime, his industry-favorite co-star Brandon Uranowitz, Chess breakout Nicholas Christopher, “Sweet Transvestite” Luke Evans, and the aforementioned Tutty. I no longer have to agonize over which one of these incredible performances misses the cut since it now feels safe to call this our final five. It’s bad news of course for Durand, who is a hoot as Brad. But that character simply doesn’t get the same type of impact or stage time as these other characters. Are we in agreement on this one?
Buchanan: Yes, we have the same top five! I am so thrilled that we don’t have to make the unduly difficult decision of choosing between Uranowitz or Evans for that final spot, which I remember we were split on when we did our most recent Awards Magnet appearance.
Best Actress (Play)
Tony Awards Nominations 2026
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Buchanan: This continues to be one of the hardest categories for me to finalize, because this season has boasted so many sensational performances across new plays and revivals. I think almost every eligible contender could have earned a nomination in a less competitive year. I feel most confident in Lesley Manville for her stunningly delivered, quietly intense monologue in Oedipus and Susannah Flood’s humorous and heart-filled turn in Liberation. I’m also still confident in Carrie Coon in Bug – despite misses at some of the other spring awards – and feel strongly about Rose Byrne in Fallen Angels, especially for the impressive vocal transformation she makes as her character gets increasingly drunk. For my final slot, I’ve been vacillating between Byrne’s co-star Kelli O’Hara and her expert physical comedy work and Laurie Metcalf in Little Bear Ridge Road. But to confuse myself even more, I’m now weighing a last-minute switch to Anika Noni Rose, who the Tony nominating committee just deemed the lead of The Balusters. For the moment, I am sticking with Metcalf, because she delivered such an unadorned, haunting performance in Little Bear which was quite different from any of her other Tony-nominated roles, but I’ll be revisiting this race in my mind all weekend. Couldn’t we get an extra nomination or two, please?
Eckmann: I feel strangely confident that both ladies of Fallen Angels make the cut here. Byrne has understandably been ranked high in our odds even before the play debuted, given the fact that she’s a famous film and TV star riding the wave of her recent Oscar nomination. However, Kelli O’Hara is Broadway royalty. She scored her first Tony nomination in 2005 for The Light in the Piazza, and since then she has been nominated for every Broadway show in which she appeared. Eight nominations for eight shows (winning for The King and I) is a perfect Tony track record. Given the structure of Fallen Angels, which gives mostly equal weight to both Byrne’s and O’Hara’s characters, I struggle to envision voters nominating one without the other. They score together or they’re snubbed together. I say they score and O’Hara keeps her perfect record. Besides this comic duo, I agree that Manville and Flood feel safe. I have Coon down in fifth place, which feels strange. But she shockingly missed with the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk voters, and there is a very real threat from Anika Noni Rose. Drama Desk voters did throw a nomination her way, albeit in featured actress, and The Balusters is proving to be wickedly popular with the industry.
Best Actor (Play)
Tony Awards Nominations 2026
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Buchanan: Even though we’re not completely aligned on Best Actress, I think we see eye-to-eye on this race. Clearly, John Lithgow in Giant and Nathan Lane in Death of a Salesman are out front. After them, I have Mark Strong for Oedipus, though I’m shocked and a little dismayed that he has been overlooked by every awards body this spring; I think the acclaim for the production and the strength of his performance are enough to keep him firmly planted in the field, though. I have Daniel Radcliffe in fourth position, as recognition for both his performance and Every Brilliant Thing overall. I did pick up Will Harrison for Punch for my final choice after the noms he’s received in the past weeks, and I certainly remember his energetic, exceptionally-moving performance. But I’m wary of some of the other contenders in the field potentially bumping him, including Jon Bernthal in Dog Day Afternoon or even an unexpected citation of a fall contender, say, Micah Stock from Little Bear Ridge Road, if the nominators are really keen on that show and it lands in Best Play and Best Actress. If we have the same five, who are you looking out for as a spoiler?
Eckmann: I’ve landed on the same five leading men that you have. Harrison is obviously on the shakiest ground since Punch ended its limited run in November and the finer details of his performance could have faded from some voters’ minds by now. If anyone was to take his spot, it is most likely Bernthal. Dog Day Afternoon didn’t win over critics, to put it lightly. But Bernthal is giving the type of emotional, demonstrative performance that can overcome negative reactions to the actual production. It’ll be close, but for now I’m giving the edge to the actor in the more warmly received show.
Best Featured Actress (Musical)
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Eckmann: This category lacks any unstoppable frontrunner, so I expect the race to shift around considerably in the coming month. Shoshana Bean could emerge as the favorite thanks to a dynamic matriarchal role in The Lost Boys which gives her several prominent songs to showcase her vocal range and acting chops. She will likely be joined by ballroom legend “Tempress” Chasity Moore for Cats: The Jellicle Ball. It certainly helps that original Grizabella Betty Buckley wrote her a glowing love letter in the New York Times. Nichelle Lewis also looks solid, playing a role in Ragtime that won Audra McDonald a Tony. For the last two slots I’m currently going with Hannah Cruz, who turns a side character of Chess into a standout role, and Ana Gasteyer, whose patter song “Tribulation” is one of the most impressive moments of Schmigadoon! I do worry though that I’m going with the wrong Schmigadoon! woman though, since some voters will undoubtedly cast ballots for McKenzie Kurtz. She generates nonstop laughs thanks to the delightfully bizarre vocal inflections she gives her character. And since Hsu is competing as a lead, Rachel Dratch now has a viable path to a nomination for her expert crowd control and improvisation as the narrator of The Rocky Horror Show. Are you zeroed in on the same performers?
Buchanan: Given the huge number of contenders, I shockingly do have the same top five. I agree that I’m shakiest on the Cruz and Gasteyer. Given the excellent notices and increasing industry buzz for Schmigadoon!, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if both Gasteyer and Kurtz were nominated. Even though Heart of Rock and Roll shuttered quickly and earned no Tony nominations back in 2024, I think folks do remember her comedic and vocal powerhouse performance in that production fondly, and she’s developed another scene-stealing role here.
Best Featured Actor (Musical)
Tony Awards Nominations 2026
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Eckmann: My predictions here have been in constant flux, but I finally feel secure in at least my top three. André De Shields will surely build off the nominations and wins he received for the Off-Broadway iteration of Cats: The Jellicle Ball and add another Tony nomination to his resume. Ben Levi Ross should also get in for his affecting turn in Ragtime, and ditto Ali Louis Bourzgui for his Billy Idol-esque vampiric villain in The Lost Boys. From there, I’m betting that Olivier-winner Layton Williams will score for his Tina Turner number in Titanique, which gets a mid-show standing ovation. The final slot feels impossible. Statistics would say that Drama Desk and OCC nominee Max Clayton is finally nominated after years of hard work in the business. His athletic version of “You Can’t Tame Me” is one of the most entertaining highlights of Schmigadoon! It’s also likely that some nominators will want to highlight another Titaníque player: co-creator Constantine Rousouli. But I can’t help but feel that The Jellicle Ball is going to be popular enough to scoop up an additional nominee in this race. In that case, voters would either go for Sydney James Harcourt as a heartthrob version of Rum Tum Tugger, or ballroom icon Junior LaBeija as Gus the Theatre Cat. I’m currently going with LaBeija but my mind changes every 10 minutes. Can you help me decide?
Buchanan: I think I can help inasmuch as I have narrowed down the field to a very similar set of contenders. We agree on the top three of De Shields, Ross, and Bourzgui. For better or worse, I don’t have Williams in my predictions, despite his Olivier win and that standing ovation, as I’m a less optimistic on the overall reception for Titaníque amongst Tony nominators than other folks. Instead, my picks have both Harcourt and Clayton. They are both so incredibly charismatic and they completely own the stage for their featured songs that I have a hard time seeing either missing; the latter plays such an electric blend of Tulsa in Gypsy crossed with Billy Bigelow from Carousel, that once he started picking up awards noms with other groups, I started to feel very confident in his prospects. This means, of course, that I don’t have LaBeija in my predictions. No, he doesn’t have as prominent a role as some of the others in this race, but his major scene is so impactful and beautiful, that I fully understand your pick and am tempted to slot him back in myself.
Best Featured Actress (Play)
Tony Awards Nominations 2026
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Buchanan: Let’s move from one quandary to another. I think we’re both fairly confident in three or four of these five slots. I have Laurie Metcalf far out front for Death of a Salesman, followed by Betsy Aidem for her standout moments in Liberation, and then June Squibb in Marjorie Prime. I’m less confident in my final two picks: I have Tony history-maker Kara Young for Proof in fourth, but I feel shakier about predicting her here than in years past, not because of the performance – she’s excellent, as always – but rather the overall strength of the production, which I don’t think is poised to do as well as Purpose last year or Purlie Victorious the year prior. I’m rounding out my list with Cynthia Nixon, who was heartbreaking in Marjorie Prime. It was a tremendously natural, lived-in performance, and she delved so painfully deep emotionally. I would hate to see her miss for this role. If I had to make a change, I would swap in either Marylouise Burke, an absolute scene-stealer from The Balusters; Linda Emond, perfectly acidic in Becky Shaw; or Aya Cash for sparring with John Lithgow in Giant. Who rounds out your five?
Eckmann: Metcalf is really the only safe bet here. I too have Aidem and Squibb, but while I hope their wonderful work makes the cut, I can also make an argument for them missing out. I am tentatively slotting in Aya Cash, who has an enormously impactful scene in Giant that voters will surely remember. Young rounds out my five, but I worry that Proof could get forgotten altogether amid a packed season of play revivals. The Balusters and Becky Shaw have proved to be quite popular within the industry, so it would make sense for Burke and Emond to register in this category. Perhaps I will move both of them into my predictions at the last second.
Best Featured Actor (Play)
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Eckmann: This category was once giving me as much strife as Featured Actress, but I believe I’ve successfully narrowed it down. Christopher Abbott is a sure thing for his definitive take on Biff in Death of a Salesman. Ditto for scene stealers Ruben Santiago-Hudson in Joe Turner’s Come and Gone and Alden Ehrenreich in Becky Shaw. Elliot Levey has surprisingly missed out on the spring awards so far, but I still think his sparring match with John Lithgow in Giant will earn this Olivier winner a Tony nomination. If voters have longer memories, and they should, then they will likely round out the category with Danny Burstein for Marjorie Prime. Should Levey or Burstein get lost in the shuffle, they could be replaced by New York theater mainstay Richard Thomas who is brutally effective in The Balusters. Or Joe Turner’s Come and Gone could pull in a second nomination in the form of Joshua Boone. At this point, I’m not expecting anyone outside of those seven names, are you?
Buchanan: Yet again, and unsettlingly, we have the exact same five. I remember declaring during a Tony Talk in the winter that we would have to have a sensational field of spring contenders for someone to best Danny Burstein’s performance in Marjorie Prime, and while I do expect him to get nominated, we most certainly do an unbelievably good list of performances here. I share your concern about Levey. I actually don’t feel especially bullish on Giant‘s chances outside of Best Play and John Lithgow, so I could see both him and Cash missing out in the Featured races. In addition to the names on your long-list – I would absolutely love to see Joshua Boone get nominated, by the way – I’ll continue to sing the praises of Ben Ahlers in Death of a Salesman. The role of Happy has never once been Tony nominated, and I’m not quite brave enough to slot him in at this moment, but I do think he could break precedent based on how much he commands that first scene between him and Abbott.
