A sumptuously sung musical revival, a visually arresting new musical, and a trio of plays will lead the 2026 Tony Awards nominations, according to Gold Derby’s official odds in 17 of the 26 categories ahead of the announcement on May 5.
Lincoln Center Theatre’s remounting of the 20th century classic Ragtime will best all productions with at least nine nominations, which will include an impressive six of its performers. This tally follows on the heels of its eight bids at the Drama Desk Awards, the most of any Broadway musical. Two-time Tony winner Michael Arden’s ambitious staging of The Lost Boys will fly close behind with seven nominations; this new musical recently dominated the Outer Critics Circle Awards nominations with eleven total citations. The charming musical two-hander Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) will place third in the overall count with six, while the reinvented Cats: The Jellicle Ball and new musical comedies Schmigadoon! and Titaníque will all earn at least five.
Two play revivals and one new work will lead the pack of dramas, as the seventh production of Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman and the first-ever Broadway mounting of Marjorie Prime will both score a minimum of five nominations apiece. Salesman was recently the most celebrated Broadway play with the Outer Critics Circle nominators. Those productions will tie with Bess Wohl’s new drama, Liberation. Other productions with multiple bids include new play Giant and revivals Oedipus and Proof with four apiece, and Tracy Letts’ Bug with two.
Below, we break down the 2026 Tony nominations predictions by show, ranked by the number of bids. Remember, these tallies do not include the Best Scenic, Lighting, Costume, and Sound Design categories for musical or plays, nor Best Orchestrations.
MUSICALS
Ragtime (nine)
Best Musical Revival – 97.14%
Best Actress, Caissie Levy – 98.93%
Best Actor, Joshua Henry – 98.49%
Best Actor, Brandon Uranowitz – 86.85%
Best Featured Actress, Nichelle Lewis – 94.61%
Best Featured Actress, Shaina Taub – 49.57%
Best Featured Actor, Ben Levi Ross – 94.41%
Best Director, Lear DeBessonet – 94.70%
Best Choreography – 79.05%
The Lost Boys (seven)
Best Musical – 97.69%
Best Featured Actress, Shoshana Bean – 92.46%
Best Featured Actor, Ali Louis Bourzgui – 88.59%
Best Director, Michael Arden – 91.08%
Best Original Score – 98.47%
Best Musical Book – 94.02%
Best Choreography – 89.66%
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) (six)
Best Musical – 98.85%
Best Actress, Christiani Pitts – 94.86%
Best Actor, Sam Tutty – 92.24%
Best Director, Tim Jackson – 85.30%
Best Original Score – 99.23%
Best Musical Book – 98.91%
Cats: The Jellicle Ball (five)
Best Musical Revival – 95.47%
Best Featured Actress, “Tempress” Chasity Moore – 87.07%
Best Featured Actor, André De Shields – 94.85%
Best Director, Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch – 97.83%
Best Choreography – 98.32%
Schmigadoon! (five)
Best Musical – 98.15%
Best Actress, Sara Chase – 85.22%
Best Featured Actress, Ana Gasteyer – 48.06%
Best Musical Book – 97.28%
Best Choreography – 97.77%
Titaníque (five)
Best Musical – 95.61%
Best Actress, Marla Mindelle – 92.93%
Best Featured Actor, Jim Parsons – 58.84%
Best Featured Actor Constantine Rousouli – 46.53%
Best Musical Book – 95.65%
The Rocky Horror Show (four)
Best Musical Revival – 80.19%
Best Actor, Luke Evans – 54.09%
Best Director, Sam Pinkleton – 63.37%
Best Choreography – 92.18%
Chess (two)
Best Actress, Lea Michele – 79.87%
Best Actor, Nicholas Christopher – 84.05%
Beaches (one)
Best Original Score – 71.61%
Queen of Versailles (one)
Best Original Score – 74.42%
PLAYS
Death of a Salesman (five)
Best Play Revival – 97.11%
Best Actor, Nathan Lane – 96.33%
Best Featured Actress, Laurie Metcalf – 97.36%
Best Featured Actor, Christopher Abbott – 96.02%
Best Director, Joe Mantello – 94.33%
Liberation (five)
Best Play – 98.22%
Best Actress, Susannah Flood – 90.41%
Best Featured Actress, Betsy Aidem – 89.01%
Best Featured Actor, Charlie Thurston – 57.38%
Best Director, Whitney White – 95.32%
Marjorie Prime (five)
Best Play Revival – 56.44%
Best Featured Actress, June Squibb – 89.45%
Best Featured Actress, Cynthia Nixon – 59.78%
Best Featured Actor, Danny Burstein – 86.18%
Best Director, Anne Kauffman – 53.45%
Giant (four)
Best Play – 98.44%
Best Actor, John Lithgow – 97.84%
Best Featured Actor, Elliot Levey – 89.23%
Best Director, Nicholas Hytner – 86.95%
Oedipus (four)
Best Play Revival – 96.44%
Best Actress, Lesley Manville – 98.47%
Best Actor, Mark Strong – 96.33%
Best Director, Robert Icke – 96.55%
Proof (four)
Best Play Revival – 58.22%
Best Actress, Ayo Edebiri – 57.95%
Best Featured Actress, Kara Young – 81.32%
Best Original Score – 59.08%
Bug (two)
Best Play Revival – 72.44%
Best Actress, Carrie Coon – 93.25%
Becky Shaw (one)
Best Featured Actor, Alden Ehrenreich – 61.12%
Every Brilliant Thing (one)
Best Actor, Daniel Radcliffe – 85.75%
Fallen Angels (one)
Best Actress, Rose Byrne – 78.87%
Little Bear Ridge Road (one)
Best Play – 44.10%
The Balusters (one)
Best Play – 90.87%
The Fear of 13 (one)
Best Actor, Adrien Brody – 57.45%
