Is the Force with The Mandalorian and Grogu, or against it?
Judging by grosses alone, Jon Favreau‘s feature film adaptation of his Disney+ series is already making headlines around the world for likely scoring the lowest box office opening of any title in the storied Star Wars franchise since Disney bought Lucasfilm in 2012.
On Friday, Mando topped the domestic box office chart with a series-low $33 million from 4,300 theaters across North America. That’s behind the $35.4 million grossed by the ill-fated Solo: A Star Wars Story in 2018, not adjusted for inflation. Actual tickets sold on Friday for each are in the $21 million range when taking out the $12 million earned in previews by Mando, of Solo’s $14.1 million in previews.
At the same time, Mandalorian and Grogu boast an 89 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes — the best any Star Wars film since Disney took over — and equally strong exit score on PostTrak, especially among kids. Disney insiders believe Mando could become the most family-driven film of any title in the iconic series, at least in the modern era.
Kids, especially boys under the age of 13, are going nuts for the film, giving it an A CinemaScore, and 5/5 stars on exit polling service PostTrak. General audiences bestowed the film with an A- CinemaScore and a stellar 4/5 stars. Reviewers aren’t as enthusiastic, although the critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes has risen to 64 percent.
The tentpole, which marks the first Star Wars film to play in theaters in seven years, continues the story of The Mandalorian, Jon Favreau’s hit series that helped launch Disney+ and introduced the world to Baby Yoda (Grogu), who became a beacon of hope just before the pandemic struck and merchandising breadwinner worth north of $1 billion.
Heading into the weekend, tracking services showed Mandalorian and Grogu opening to roughly $82 million at the domestic box office for the four days, while some exhibitors saw it coming in as high as $95 million or as low as $70 million.
Disney insiders now say the movie is on course to earn a better-than-expected $92 million to $96 million for the four-day holiday weekend, including somewhere in the $77 million range for the three days.
That’s still behind Solo, however, which posted a four-day opening of $103 million (that movie was dissed by audiences and critics alike). Solo marked a low point for the franchise in topping out at less than $400 million globally.
By Saturday morning, rival studios were more bullish than Disney in predicting a four-day domestic opening of $95 million to $100 million for Mandalorian. The big wild card is walk-up business on Saturday and Sunday. That is where families, who are notoriously hard to track, will come into play.
Disney continues to point out that Mando began its life on the small screen, so it is an entirely different proposition from previous titles in the Star Wars pantheon, and introduces new characters not tied to the saga movies or stand-alone features. And if recent audience hits, including Project Hail Mary, are any indication, it could have long legs.
Globally, Disney insiders expect Mandalorian and Grogu to earn at least $160 million in its launch.
The movie sees Pedro Pascal return as Mandalorian, a bounty hunter also known as Din Djarin, who is charged with protecting Grogu. Favreau directed from a script he wrote with Noah Kloor and Dave Filoni, who earlier this year, was upped to oversee the creative direction of Lucasfilm as president and chief creative officer following Kathleen Kennedy’s departure (he was a George Lucas protégé).
In the film, the Mandalorian is tasked by Sigourney Weaver’s Colonel Ward of the New Republic to rescue Rotta the Hutt, voiced by Jeremy Allen White. Martin Scorsese also voices a memorable, four-armed food stand chef.
The other big headline of the Memorial Day weekend is Focus Features and Blumhouse’s runaway horror hit Obsession, directed by Curry Barker of YouTube fame. The horror film looks to come in No. 2 for the weekend with $19.9 million, a 16 percent increase over its opening last weekend.
