The Force is strong with this one.
Disney’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is set to dominate Memorial Day weekend with a projected $85 million box-office debut — and potentially $100 million over the four-day holiday — quickly making it the year’s eighth certified blockbuster.
It’s also the first Star Wars film to hit theaters since December 2019, when The Rise of Skywalker opened to $177 million domestically and went on to earn over $1 billion worldwide — a bar Mandalorian & Grogu is not expected to clear. Pedro Pascal, Sigourney Weaver, and Jeremy Allen White star, and critics have been lukewarm at 61% on Rotten Tomatoes. With $25 million in presales already banked, the real question is whether families and casual audiences show up — and if they do, the sky’s the limit.
But even Baby Yoda can’t stop Michael from dancing. Lionsgate’s crowd-pleasing biopic continues its unstoppable box office run with an estimated $17 million over the traditional three-day frame and as much as $20–25 million over the holiday stretch, crossing the $300 million mark domestically in the process.
Inside ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ prop house: A photographic tour
The Devil Wears Prada 2 rounds out the podium with a projected $12 million weekend and $16 million over four days — Disney’s fashion sequel that just won’t go out of style.
Paramount’s Passenger arrives as the weekend’s second new wide release, with director André Øvredal’s horror film tracking for a $9 million opening weekend and $11 million over the holiday. Rounding out the top five is Obsession, which is expected to drop around 55% in its second weekend for an $8 million three-day total and $10 million by the end of the holiday — still a strong hold for Focus Features’ buzzy horror indie.
Among the other newcomers, Neon’s I Love Boosters — written and directed by Boots Riley — opens in around 2,000 theaters with a projected $3 million debut. Boasting a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, the crime-comedy stars Keke Palmer, Demi Moore, and Lakeith Stanfield. Meanwhile, Western Film Service’s Corporate Retreat is eyeing around $2 million from just 1,000 theaters, which could be enough to crack the top 10.
New releases
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
Director: Jon Favreau
Distributor: Walt Disney Studios
Once a lone bounty hunter, Mandalorian Din Djarin and his apprentice Grogu embark on an exciting new Star Wars adventure. The family sci-fi flick has a running time of two hours, 12 minutes, and is rated PG-13. The Mandalorian and Grogu is certified “fresh” with a 61% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 53%.
Passenger
Director: André Øvredal
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
After a young couple witnesses a gruesome highway accident, they soon realize they did not leave the crash scene alone, as a demonic presence called the Passenger won’t stop until it claims them both. The horror movie has a running time of one hour, 34 minutes, and is rated R. Passenger is certified “rotten” with a 47% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 49%.
I Love Boosters
Director: Boots Riley
Distributor: Neon
A group of shoplifters take aim at a cutthroat fashion maven by stealing her clothes and reselling them at a lower price, what they call “fashion-forward philanthropy.” The crime comedy has a running time of one hour, 45 minutes, and is rated R. I Love Boosters is certified “fresh” with a 92% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 71%.
Corporate Retreat
Director: Aaron Fisher
Distributor: Western Film Services
Corporate executives on a team-building retreat face a deadly struggle when their leader turns violently against them. The horror-comedy has a running time of one hour, 29 minutes, and is rated R. As of this writing, Corporate Retreat has no critical consensus on Rotten Tomatoes or Metacritic.
Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the May 22-25 Memorial Day weekend:
1. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu — $100 million
2. Michael — $20 million
3. The Devil Wears Prada 2 — $16 million
4. Passenger — $11 million
5. Obsession — $10 million
2026 box-office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million
