In 1998, Natasha Richardson and Alan Cumming — the stars of the Sam Mendes and Rob Marshall-helmed revival of Cabaret — won respective Tony statuettes for Best Actress and Best Actor in a Musical. The duo managed to overcome stiff competition from the original Broadway cast of Ragtime, including Marin Mazzie and Brian Stokes Mitchell, who were nominated in those respective categories for originating the roles of Mother and Coalhouse in the acclaimed musical version of E.L. Doctorow’s 1975 novel.
Flash-forward to 2026, and Lincoln Center’s remounting of Ragtime is expected to become the first revival since Cabaret to see both of its stars take home those honors: Caissie Levy, the current Mother, and Joshua Henry, the current Coalhouse.
Since 1998, the following scenarios saw a musical revival nominated for both lead acting categories, but only one of the nominated actors ended up winning.
1999: Bernadette Peters won for Annie Get Your Gun; her co-star, Tom Wopat, lost to Martin Short for Little Me.
2000: Mitchell won for Kiss Me, Kate; his co-star, Mazzie, lost to Heather Headley for Aida.
2008: Paulo Szot won for South Pacific; his co-star, Kelli O’Hara, lost to Patti LuPone for Gypsy.
2012: Audra McDonald won for Porgy and Bess; her co-star, Norm Lewis, lost to Steve Kazee for Once.
2015: Kelli O’Hara won for The King and I; her co-star, Ken Watanabe, lost to Michael Cerveris for Fun Home.
2017: Bette Midler won for Hello, Dolly!; her co-star, David Hyde Pierce, lost to Ben Platt for Dear Evan Hansen.
2025: Nicole Scherzinger won for Sunset Boulevard; her co-star, Tom Francis, lost to Darren Criss for Maybe Happy Ending.
Critics agree that Levy and Henry’s respective performances are worthy of Tony wins. Writing in The New York Times, Laura Collins-Hughes noted that Levy makes Mother “a master of genteel subtlety and cool rebuffs,” while Henry’s performance as Coalhouse ,”like his singing, seems to emanate from his very core.” Variety‘s Frank Rizzo agreed, calling Levy’s work “splendid” and noting that “Henry’s commanding presence, richly felt emotions and powerful vocals that anchors the show while making the production soar.”
Ragtime has been a forceful presence in multiple Tony precursor ceremonies as well. The musical won a field-leading three honors at last week’s Drama League Awards, with Henry scoring the coveted Distinguished Performance Award. And both Henry and Levy won Outstanding Lead Performance in a Musical at Sunday’s Drama Desk Awards, accounting for two of Ragtime‘s five wins, which solidified its status as the Tony frontrunner for Best Musical Revival.
According to Gold Derby’s current predictions, Levy has an 84% chance to win Best Actress in a Musical. Behind her are Marla Mindelle (Titaníque) in second place, Christianni Pitts (Two Strangers Carry a Cake Across New York) in third, Stephanie Hsu (The Rocky Horror Show) in fourth, and Sara Chase (Schmigadoon!) in fifth.
Best Actress (Musical)
1.
2.
3.
Christiani Pitts
Two Strangers [Carry a Cake Across New York]
4.
Stephanie Hsu
The Rocky Horror Show
5.
Meanwhile, fourth time is looking to be the charm for Henry after he previously contended forThe Scottsboro Boys, Violet, and Carousel. The actor is currently leading the Best Actor in a Musical field with a 93% chance at winning. Behind him are Luke Evans (The Rocky Horror Show) in second place, Nicholas Christopher (Chess) in third, Sam Tutty (Two Strangers Carry a Cake Across New York) in fourth, and Brandon Uranowitz (Ragtime) in fifth.
Best Actor (Musical)
1.
2.
Luke Evans
The Rocky Horror Show
3.
Nicholas Christopher
Chess
4.
Sam Tutty
Two Strangers [Carry a Cake Across New York]
5.
Brandon Uranowitz
Ragtime
