Commentary The Odyssey has been massively successful both critically (it is at 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and commercially (it has grossed $1.6 billion worldwide, #14 of all time). That being said, and contrary to some reporting, it did not play through the roof at its official Academy screening in LA — it was warmly but not effusively received, and its principal talent opted not to appear for a post-screening Q&A, which didn’t help matters. But it certainly has been seen and liked by more Academy members around the world than any other film, many of whom do love it, so it is indeed the clear frontrunner.
Other top-tier contenders include Project Hail Mary, which was also a giant critical and commercial success, and probably benefits from being a little more light-hearted than most of its competition; two Cannes darlings, La Bola Negra, a sweeping Spanish-language epic which is Netflix’s principal cause this awards season, and Fjord; and The Invite, a Sundance darling that went on to very strong reviews and box office for a film of its size.
The title that is likeliest to pop out of the fall fests may well be Wild Horse Nine; it’s very quirky, but so too were Martin McDonagh’s earlier films Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin, which were widely embraced by the Academy.
Can another true blockbuster join The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary in the 10? Keep an eye on Toy Story 5, Michael and Obsession — I’m sure the Academy and its broadcasting partner, ABC, will!
Frontrunners
1. The Odyssey (Universal, July 17, THR review) — Christopher Nolan & Emma Thomas
2. Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM, March 20, THR review) — Ryan Gosling, Phil Lord, Chris Miller, Rachel O’Connor, Amy Pascal, Aditya Sood & Andy Weir
3. Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight, Nov. 6) — Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh & Anita Overland VENI
4. La Bola Negra (Netflix, Oct. 16, THR review) — Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo CANN, TIFF
5. Fjord (Neon, Oct. 9, THR review) — Dyveke Bkørkly Graver, Cristian Mungiu, Andrea Berentsen Ottmar & Tudor Reu CANN, KARL, TIFF
6. The Invite (A24, June 26, THR review) — Ben Browning, Megan Ellison & David Permut SUND
7. Tender Loving Care (Bleecker Street, Dec. 4) — Georgina Lowe TIFF, NYFF
8. Ink (Netflix, Dec. 11) — Danny Boyle, Michael Ellenberg, Tessa Ross & Tracey Seaward VENI, TIFF
9. Paper Tiger (Neon, Nov. 13, THR review) — Andrea Bucko, Gary Farkas, Anthony Katagas, Raffaella Leone, Marco Perego, Carlo Salem & Rodrigo Teixeira CANN, KARL, NYFF
10. Toy Story 5 (Disney/Pixar, June 19, THR review) — Jessica Choi & Lindsey Collins
Major Threats
11. Michael (Lionsgate, 4/24, THR review) — John Branca, Graham King & John McClain
12. Fatherland (MUBI, Oct. 23, THR review) — Edward Berger, Lorenzo Gangarossa, Mario Gianani, Lorenzo Mieli, Ewa Puszczyńska, Dimitri Rassam & Jeanne Tremsal CANN, KARL, NYFF
13. All of a Sudden (Neon, Nov. 25, THR review) — Renan Artukmaç, Bettina Brokemper, Julien Deris, David Gauquié, Hiroko Matsuda, Jean-Luc Ormières, Kôsuke Oshida, Joseph Rouschop & Yûji Sadai CANN, TIFF, NYFF
14. Minotaur (MUBI, Nov. 20, THR review) — Charles Gillibert & Andrei Zvyagintsev CANN, TIFF, NYFF
15. Obsession (Focus, May 15, THR review) — James Harris, Haley Nicole Johnson, Christian Mercuri & Roman Viaris-de-Lesegno TIFF
16. Tuner (Black Bear, 5/22, THR review) — Michael Heimler, Teddy Schwarzman, JoAnne Sellar & Lila Yacoub TIFF, SUND
Possibilities
17. Sense and Sensibility (Focus, Oct. 16) — Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, India Flint & Jo Wallet
18. Josephine (Sumerian, Nov. 20, THR review) — Jesse Hope, Josh Peters & Max Walker-Silverman SUND, BERL
19. The Mosquito Bowl (Netflix, Oct. 30) — Peter Berg, Alex Gayner & Brian Grazer
20. Coward (MUBI, Dec. 25, THR review) — Michiel Dhont CANN, KARL
21. Being Heumann (Apple, Nov. 6) — John W. Beach, Kevin Cleary, Sian Heder, David Permut & Kevin Walsh TIFF
22. Tony (A24, Aug. 7, THR review) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller, Tim White & Trevor White
Long Shots
23. Backrooms (A24, May 29, THR review) — Kori Adelson, Peter Chernin, Michael Clear, Dan Cohen, Chris Ferguson, Dan Levine, Shawn Levy, Roberto Patino, Osgood Perkins, Jenno Topping & James Wan
24. The Liberation (Bleecker Street, TBD) — Julia Lebedev, Roy Lee, Oren Moverman, Jaime Ray Newman, Steven Schneider & Eddie Vaisman TIFF
25. Bunker (Sony Classics, TBD) — Fernando Bovaira, Alice Dawson, Federica Sainte-Rose & Simón de Santiago VENI, TIFF
26. Tenzing (Apple, Oct. 9) — Desray Armston, Iain Canning, Luke Davies, Jennifer Peedom, Emile Sherman & Liz Watts
27. Disclosure Day (Universal, June 12, THR review) — Kristie Macosko Krieger & Steven Spielberg
Still to See or Under Embargo
Artificial (Neon, TBD) — Jeffrey Clifford, Jennifer Fox, Luca Guadagnino, David Heyman & Simon Rich
Behemoth! (Searchlight, Dec. 4) — John Gilroy, Tony Gilroy & Sanne Wohlenberg NYFF
Club Kid (A24, Nov. 6, THR review) — Alex Coco, Galen Core & Ryan Heller CANN
The Debut (A24, Dec. 11) — Jesse Eisenberg, Ali Herting, Dave McNary & Emma Stone TIFF, NYFF
DIGGER (Warner Bros., Oct. 2) — Tom Cruise, Alejandro González Iñarritu & Mary Parent
Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros., Dec. 18) — Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Mary Parent & Denis Villeneuve
Elsinore (Focus, Nov. 20) — Carolyn Marks Blackwood, Mickey Liddell, Stefano Massenzi, Andrea Occhipinti, Andrew Scott, Pete Shilaimon & Gabrielle Tana TIFF, LOND
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix, Nov. 25) — Ceán Chaffin, David Heyman, Brad Pitt & Quentin Tarantino
Heart of the Beast (Paramount, Sept. 25) — David Ayer, Marty Bowen, Olivia Hamilton & Brad Pitt
I Play Rocky (Amazon/MGM, Nov. 13) — Christian Baha, Toby Emmerich & Peter Farrelly TIFF
Madden (Amazon/MGM, Nov. 26) — Todd Black, Jason Blumenthal, Matthew Budman, Jonathan Shukat & Steve Tisch
Mr. Irrelevant (Paramount, Dec. 25) — Gillian Bohrer, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg, Don Granger, Jonathan Levine & Nick Santora
Possible Love (Netflix, Oct. 23) — Lee Joon-dong, David Levine & Chadwick Prichard
Primetime (A24, Sept. 25) — Ari Aster, Fred Berger, Tyler Campellone, Brian Kavanaugh-Jones, Lars Knudsen, Brighton McCloskey & Robert Pattinson VENI
The Social Reckoning (Sony, Oct. 9) — Stuart M. Besser, Todd Black, Peter Rice & Aaron Sorkin
Werwulf (Focus, Dec. 25) — Tim Bevan, Garrett Bird, Robert Eggers, Eric Fellner & Sjón Sigurdsson
