Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. With the summer at its midpoint, we discuss the upcoming Broadway season and forecast likely 2027 Tony contenders.
David Buchanan: Sam, in the month since we discussed our extremely early 2027 Tony predictions, the slate of shows has evolved significantly, hasn’t it! We’ve had many new and exciting productions announced, running the gamut from original musicals to musical revivals and starry play revivals.
One of the most eye-popping new additions to next spring has to be Lin-Manuel Miranda‘s return to Broadway with Warriors. He’s collaborated with Eisa Davis on this new work, which is based on the 1965 novel and 1979 film of the same name and follows a gang’s harrowing journey from the Bronx to Coney Island as they outrun false accusations of murder. In this new iteration, the gang of warriors are women.
Needless to say, Miranda’s musicals In the Heights and Hamilton both performed exceedingly well at the Tonys, earning 13 and a record-breaking 16 nominations, respectively. I know we only have the concept album and the source material to go by, but do already expect Warriors to outpace the rest of the musical field this season?
Sam Eckmann: The entrance of Miranda into the season completely changes my calculations for the upcoming Tony race. To say that Miranda is a beloved figure in the industry would be an understatement. He has written or co-written four Broadway musicals and all of them received Tony nominations for Best Musical. In the Heights and the mega-hit Hamilton won the award. But it’s also impressive that the short-lived Bring It On and New York, New York — the John Kander and Fred Ebb tuner for which Miranda provided additional lyrics — also scored a nomination in that top category. Miranda’s perfect Tony track record combined with the sky-high anticipation for any new show he composes nearly guarantees that Warriors will be a Best Musical nominee next spring.
Will Warriors be able to capture the zeitgeist to become a Hamilton-level sensation? That’s a tall order, and I’m not expecting lightning to strike twice. But the concept album showcases some intriguing music, with Miranda clearly playing against expectations and experimenting with new sounds. Voters love when artists stretch themselves, so if Miranda can give audiences something new with his score, that might be enough to clinch another Best Musical victory. The presence of Davis as the show’s book writer will also pique the interest of many. The popular performer-turned-playwright is a Pulitzer Prize nominee for her 2007 script The Bulrusher. I’m eager to see how she’s adapted this ’70s film for the stage.
In our previous discussion, I mentioned that Wanted might be the homegrown show that could take down the British import Paddington. But perhaps it’s Warriors which will have the biggest homefield advantage. Speaking of, after months of it being the worst-kept secret in New York, Paddington officially announced its Broadway run. Do you think the 2027 Best Musical race will come down to a clash of the gang from Warriors and Paddington’s titular teddy?
Buchanan: I do think those are our two Best Musical frontrunners among the current slate of shows — and could they be any more different?! I think what excites me most about Warriors at this early point in time is how completely unpredictable the staging could be. Jenny Koons, who has worked at a vast array of theaters throughout New York and at the American Repertory Theater and who has collaborated with some excellent playwrights, will be directing alongside Andy Blankenbuehler. I can’t wait to see how they translate this ambitious material to the stage.
Will they opt for something deceptively simple like Thomas Kail’s work on Hamilton, or will they go for full-blown set pieces? Since Hamilton, Miranda has proven to be an accomplished director himself with Tick, Tick… Boom! and his forthcoming film adaptation of Octet, so I imagine he’ll have some novel contributions to their vision, too. I couldn’t agree with you more that it will be very tricky indeed for lightning to strike twice and for Warriors to mirror Hamilton‘s overall success, but there’s no question the anticipation is mounting!
The anticipation for Paddington is definitely different, but no less high. New York audiences have had little smackrels — to borrow a phrase from another silly old bear — of the puppeteering and performance magic that brings Paddington to life on stage, but those television representations surely pale in comparison to the real thing. Broadway was treated to some large-scale musical productions this season with The Lost Boys and via the beautifully handcrafted sets for Schmigadoon!, but we’re always incredibly eager for large, sumptuous musical productions, and that’s exactly what Paddington promises. It will undoubtedly be a fun Best Musical race!
Our most recent entrant into the season is Dolly: A True Original Musical, an autobiographical musical about Dolly Parton‘s life and career boasting her songbook plus new compositions, with Tony-winning director Bart Sher at the helm. Jukebox musicals are prolific on Broadway, but not always successful in cracking the Best Musical lineup. For every Hell’s Kitchen and Beautiful: The Carole King Musical, there’s A Wonderful World or even Just in Time, which did well in nominations and continues to perform well at the box office but fell short of a bid for the top honor.
I have no doubt this one will move tickets with Parton’s music and, presumably, her active participation in promoting it, but do you think it’ll be a force against Paddington and Miranda?
Eckmann: It will be tempting for many pundits to write off Dolly from the Tony Awards because of voters’ track record of ignoring jukebox musicals in the top field. But it’s important to note that while this show contains plenty of Parton’s hits, the country superstar has also written a bunch of new tunes for the show. Reports from the pre-Broadway tryout in Nashville indicate that there’s enough new material to make her eligible for the Best Original Score category, the same eligibility hurdle that Schmigadoon! recently needed to clear to win the top prize. Parton was previously nominated for her score to the stage adaptation of 9 to 5, though she would lose to Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey for Next to Normal. Does she have what it takes to topple Miranda in her second time up at bat?
It’s also worth mentioning that Parton has been putting in some serious work to make sure her show is ready for the Rialto. This musical was slated to debut last season, with a theater secured and cast booked. But after some less-than-stellar reviews in Nashville, Parton delayed their Broadway bow in order to give herself and the writers ample time to retool the script and songs. We’ve seen so many Broadway musicals open before a creative team has been able to accomplish all of the fine tuning they hope to achieve. Usually, when financing is in place and the right theater is available, a show simply has to make the jump. So it’s an encouraging sign that the Dolly team is willing to take the time to perfect their show.
Even if a biography show like Dolly isn’t what ultimately prevails in Best Musical, I expect it to be quite competitive for other wins, particularly for the performers. Portraying a real-life music icon has proved a viable path to a lead acting Tony victory in many recent cases. This includes John Lloyd Young as Frankie Valli in Jersey Boys, Hugh Jackman as Peter Allen in The Boy From Oz, Jessie Mueller as Carole King in Beautiful, Stephanie J. Block as Cher in The Cher Show, Adrienne Warren as Tina Turner in Tina, and Myles Frost as Michael Jackson in MJ. Someone from Dolly could certainly replicate these performers’ blueprints for success. In the Nashville tryout, three actresses portrayed Parton at different stages of her life, with Broadway veteran Katie Rose Clarke playing the oldest version of the singer. Casting for the Broadway production has yet to be announced so we don’t know which performers might continue on with their roles, but anyone who can capture the superstar’s signature twang and emotive voice will be a threat in the Lead Actress race.
Of course, in the time since our last talk, a slew of additional star-studded plays have also been announced. Film and TV stars like David Corenswet, Francois Arnaud, and Bradley Whitford will be descending on New York stages soon. Do you forsee Tony nominations for any of these recently announced projects?
Buchanan: My curiosity has absolutely been piqued by Three Days of Rain, which will star Corenswet, Arnaud, and Yvonne Strahovski. The original Broadway production with Julia Roberts, Paul Rudd, and Bradley Cooper did not do well with critics, to put it kindly, and it has felt like that response really cast a pall over the play. But I am a fan of playwright Richard Greenberg, and it did get shortlisted for the Pulitzer Prize back in 1998, so I’m looking forward to meeting it on its own terms in a new staging. This remounting will be directed by Anna D. Shapiro, who hasn’t had a Tony nomination for directing in 15 years. But family drama is a genre in which she has absolutely excelled — she won her Tony for August: Osage County — so I’m eager to see her tackle this time-shifting work.
I am definitely keen to see Whitford and Tom Blyth in the first Broadway revival of A Few Good Men. The performances in the Oscar-nominated film by Rob Reiner have become iconic, so it will be interesting to see how these performers reinterpret the roles first played on stage by Tony nominee Tom Hulce and Stephen Lang and then made famous by Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson, respectively. I’m sure Michael Arden will take full advantage of the Vivian Beaumont stage at Lincoln Center for this gripping courtroom drama, too.
Speaking of Lincoln Center, we also recently heard the terribly exciting news that their spring musical next year will be The Sound of Music, starring Jasmine Amy Rogers as Maria. I have been wowed by Rogers twice now, in her Tony-nominated role in Boop! two seasons ago and just this spring in the off-Broadway run of The Wild Party at New York City Center Encores! The rumored casting choices for Captain von Trapp and Mother Abbess are pretty thrilling, too, if they come to fruition. LCT Artistic Director Lear deBessonet will direct after leading Ragtime to a huge victory at this year’s Tonys. Do you think she can do it again, and maybe take home Best Director this time?
Eckmann: Lincoln Center Theater is certainly on a roll! Whitford will have one of the most compelling Tony narratives of the season. The Emmy-winner made his Broadway debut as a replacement in the original production of A Few Good Men back in 1990. He played Kaffee in that production, and now 36 years later he will still into the role of Jessup. I can’t wait to see what he does with the role.
As for The Sound of Music, I do believe that this revival will put deBessonet in a much more competitive position to win Best Director. Ragtime, of course, began its life as a concert staging at City Center and though changes were made when she brought the show to Broadway, it still retained a stripped-down aesthetic. That approach was always going to hamper her chances against the likes of Arden’s epic-scale work on The Lost Boys and the conceptual reimagining of Cats: The Jellicle Ball by eventual winners Bill Rauch and Zhailon Levingston.
We don’t know what deBessonet’s approach to The Sound of Music will be, but the opportunity to build a grand presentation of this Rodgers and Hammerstein classic could be her ticket to a Tony win. She feels like someone who seems destined to win at some point, and this hot streak in her career might provide the perfect timing.
Speaking of people on a hot streak, Boop turned Rogers into one of the most sought-after musical theater actresses in the industry and it feels like she’s unstoppable at the moment. Months ago, Broadway watchers assumed that Evita’s Rachel Zegler would steamroll her way to a Tony win. But with Rogers in play, as well as Solea Pfeiffer and Liisi LaFontaine of Wanted and whoever is cast to play Lola in Damn Yankees, Lead Actress in a Musical is once again poised to deliver a nail-biting race.
