Disney’s live-action Moana was supposed to be smooth sailing to one of the year’s biggest blockbusters. Instead, it’s heading into stormy seas — with box-office receipts far lower than expected, despite still winning the weekend.
Tracking on the Thomas Kail-directed remake has slipped steadily over the past month. Early projections had the film opening domestically between $80 million and $105 million, but the latest estimates have it landing closer to $45 to $60 million. Reviews haven’t helped: the film is sitting at just 38% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The soft tracking is especially notable given the film’s price tag, reported anywhere from $200 million to $250 million depending on the outlet — before marketing is even factored in. Internationally, Moana is expected to open stronger, in the $70 million to $75 million range, with Latin America, Australia/New Zealand, France, Germany, and the U.K. seen as its best markets.
Dwayne Johnson returns as Maui opposite newcomer Catherine Laga’aia in the title role, a decade after the original’s $56 million opening and just two years removed from Moana 2‘s billion-dollar run. Some analysts have pointed to reboot fatigue and an oversaturated Moana brand as factors working against the new film, while others note the timing — barely 19 months after Moana 2 — may simply be too soon. Despite the tepid tracking, Johnson has confirmed Moana 3 is already in development.
Warner Bros. and New Line’s Evil Dead Burn is also opening wide this weekend, with projections ranging from the high teens to $25 million. The Sébastien Vanicek-directed sequel follows 2023’s Evil Dead Rise, which opened to $24.5 million and finished with $67.2 million domestic against a $15 million budget. Early reactions suggest the film is skewing especially well with adults over 25, and some trackers see it as the weekend’s brightest spot given the horror genre’s hot streak in 2026.
Meanwhile, Sony Pictures Classics opens its Sundance pickup Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass in around 1,200 theaters, projected under $5 million; the comedy stars Zoey Deutch as a small-town hairdresser looking to even the score with her ex, with Jon Hamm and John Slattery co-starring. A24’s The Invite, directed by Olivia Wilde and starring Wilde, Seth Rogen, Penélope Cruz, and Edward Norton, expands nationwide in its third weekend, with $4 million to $5 million projected on top of its $1.36 million limited-release opener last weekend.
Among holdovers, Universal’s Minions & Monsters faces a projected drop of 45%-50% in its second weekend, landing between $17 million and $22 million after grossing $67.9 million through its opening frame. Disney’s Toy Story 5 is expected to add $15 million to $20 million in its fourth weekend. Angel Studios’ Young Washington is the wild card, with strong word of mouth potentially putting it around $10 million after surprising with $19.4 million over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.
New releases
Moana
Director: Thomas Kail
Distributor: Walt Disney Studios
Live-action adaptation of the 2016 Disney animated film Moana. The family adventure movie has a running time of one hour, 55 minutes, and is rated PG. Moana is certified “rotten” with a 38% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 42%.
Evil Dead Burn
Director: Sébastien Vanicek
Distributor: Warner Bros.
After the loss of her husband, a woman seeks solace with her in-laws. As one by one they transform into deadites, she comes to discover that the vows she took in life – survive even in death. The horror movie has a running time of one hour, 50 minutes, and is rated R. Evil Dead Burn is certified “fresh” with a 77% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 58%.
Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass
Director: David Wain
Distributor: Sony Pictures Classic
When her fiancé uses their “celebrity pass” agreement, Midwest bride Gail Daughtry travels to Hollywood seeking revenge by pursuing her own celebrity encounter. The comedy has a running time of one hour, 33 minutes, and is rated R. Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass is certified “fresh” with a 79% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 66%.
The Invite
Director: Olivia Wilde
Distributor: A24
Joe and Angela’s marriage is on thin ice. When they invite their enigmatic upstairs neighbors for a dinner party, the night spirals into unexpected places. The romantic dramedy has a running time of one hour, 47 minutes, and is rated R. The Invite is certified “fresh” with a 96% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “universal acclaim” on Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 82%.
Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the July 10-12 weekend:
1. Moana — $50 million
2. Evil Dead Burn — $25 million
3. Minions & Monsters — $20 million
4. Toy Story 5 — $18 million
5. Young Washington — $10 million
2026 box-office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million
