The Emmy race is officially changing channels from Phase 1 to Phase 2. On July 8, the TV Academy will unveil the nominations for the 2026 Primetime Emmy Awards, set to air on NBC and stream on Peacock on Sept. 14 at 8 p.m. As we enter the waning hours before the announcement, Gold Derby has some burning questions for what we might see and hear on Wednesday. Read on — and sound off if in the comments or the forums if you have your own answers.
Will the joke be on Netflix?
Between Beef and The Beast in Me, Netflix is certain to be served with plenty of nominations in the Limited Series categories. Meanwhile, the third season of The Diplomat and the farewell season of Stranger Things are expected to reap a bounty of Drama Series nods — though maybe not wins — the streaming giant’s way. But when it comes to the Comedy Series race, Netflix looks to be out of (laughing) gas, even as it’s expected to win bragging rights as the most-nominated platform.
The streamer had been counting on the return of last year’s much-nominated hit Nobody Wants This to be its star attraction, but the muted reception to Season 2 suggests that neither viewers nor voters really wanted it. Experts currently have the Kristen Bell-Adam Brody rom-com at No. 10 on the Best Comedy Series leaderboard, and aren’t expecting to see either star repeat in Best Comedy Actress and Best Comedy Actor.
Comedy Series
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Only Murders in the Building
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Margo’s Got Money Troubles
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Another Netflix returning favorite, Wednesday, is also an also-ran for its sophomore year. Season 1 scored a Best Comedy Series nomination in 2023, as well as a Best Comedy Actress nod for Gen Z superstar Jenna Ortega. But the actress is hanging just outside of what seems to be a locked Top 5, with Jean Smart almost certain to complete her 5-for-5 wining streak with the final season of Hacks.
Comedy Actress
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Quinta Brunson
Abbott Elementary
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Elle Fanning
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
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Kristen Bell
Nobody Wants This
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9.
Rachel Sennott
I Love L.A.
10.
Granted, Netflix’s track record in the comedy categories has always been checkered. The streamer has notably never taken home the Best Comedy Series statuette, and since 2020, it’s failed to make the final cut in both 2022 and 2024. Similarly, Netflix has never seen a star or supporting player from one of its comedies win in any of the four main acting categories. The only performer to put a point on the scoreboard is Uzo Aduba, who picked up the prize for Best Comedy Guest Actress for Orange Is the New Black‘s second season way back in 2014.
You might say that Netflix comedies seem to be no laughing matter when it comes to the Emmys.
Will SNL show its age?
In 2025, Saturday Night Live picked up a milestone number of Emmy nods for its milestone 50th year. The storied late-night franchise boasted 31 nominations across its suite of SNL50 offerings, ultimately winning 12 trophies between the Primetime ceremony and the Creative Arts Emmys and bringing its overall count up to 113 statuettes, breaking the show’s own record.
It would always have been difficult for Season 51 to match that haul given that there are no SNL51 tie-ins — although a quick-turn documentary about Connor Storrie’s hosting gig probably would have done Heated Rivalry-sized streaming numbers for Peacock. As it is, the breakout star is predicted to join the Best Comedy Guest Actor ranks both because he was genuinely funny and to ensure that he and Hudson Williams are on hand to smolder on the Emmys red carpet.
Comedy Guest Actor
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Connor Storrie
Saturday Night Live
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Brett Goldstein
Shrinking
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Ryan Gosling
Saturday Night Live
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Christopher McDonald
Hacks
9.
James Burrows
The Comeback
10.
Colman Domingo
Saturday Night Live
Beyond Storrie, SNL‘s own awards story this year is on the cloudy side. Our experts are still predicting that ex-Not Ready for Primetime Player Bowen Yang repeats in Best Comedy Supporting Actor for his farewell run of episodes, and barring a last-minute Hot Ones surge, SNL should once again round out the Best Variety Series category.
Variety Series
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Late Show with Stephen Colbert
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Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
With three Primetime nominations seemingly set, all it will take is an four additional Creative Arts Emmy mentions to equal last year’s seven-nod haul for the mothership show,. That’s still down from the 17 nominations in pulled in for Season 49 in 2024, but on par with the nine-nomination tallies for Season 48 and 47 in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Not for nothing, but most fiftysomethings will tell you that just showing up is enough.
How much love will Love Story receive?
With All’s Fair and The Beauty nipped and tucked as contenders, Ryan Murphy’s Emmy hopes are resting entirely on his hit FX serial that brings the Love Story between John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyne Bessette back to life. The good news is that the series is locked and loaded for Best Limited Series recognition, and breakout stars Sarah Pidgeon and Paul Anthony Kelly — who has already booked a blockbuster movie role as a follow-up — are firmly ensconced among the finalists in their respective acting categories as well.
Limited Series
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The true depths of voters’ affection for Love Story will be reflected in the supporting actor races, not to mention writing and directing. Right now, our experts are only predicting nods for Alessandro Nivola’s well-reviewed Calvin Klein in Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor, and Naomi Watts’s less well-reviewed Jackie Kennedy in the corresponding supporting actress race. That leaves out Grace Gummer, Constance Zimmer, and Jessica Harper, all of whom were hoping to be invited to the party.
Movie/Limited Supporting Actress
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Dakota Fanning
All Her Fault
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Linda Cardellini
DTF St. Louis
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Laurie Metcalf
Monster: The Ed Gein Story
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8.
Constance Zimmer
Love Story
9.
Jennifer Jason Leigh
Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen
10.
Brittany Snow
The Beast in Me
Still hanging over the series, of course, is any lingering fallout from the Daryl Hannah dust-up; the actress wrote a scathing New York Times op-ed about her Love Story portrayal — one that cited a Gold Derby interview with the show’s producers confirming they didn’t contact her ahead of time — which earned some sympathetic endorsements from stars like Jamie Lee Curtis. That controversy didn’t impact the show’s ratings, but it could cost it some votes from TV Academy members who have mixed feelings about its real life-to-reel life liberties. Siri, play “Sullen Girl” around Murphy HQ if Love Story underwhelms on Emmy nominations morning.
Is The Gilded Age here to stay?
Traditionally when a popular show breaks into Best Drama Series contention, future seasons have an edge over the competition going forward. But in the face of a strong slate of freshman year dramas, HBO’s The Gilded Age — which picked up its first nod for Season 2 in 2024 — is looking a little wobbly in the closing hours of Phase 1.
Season 3 of Julian Fellowes’s 19th century period piece is clinging to the No. 8 spot on our experts-only leaderboard, behind the first seasons of channelmates Task and A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, as well as the Apple TV breakout Pluribus. And there are two locomotives lurking directly behind Train Daddy and Opera Mommy just waiting to pull ahead: Stranger Things and Industry.
Drama Series
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A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
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It’s the same song over in Best Drama Actress, where returning nominee Carrie Coon is trending downwards for the fifth and final slot while The Madison‘s Michelle Pfeiffer is trending upwards. That would represent a major breakthrough for super-producer Taylor Sheridan’s universe of Paramount+ dramas, which have traditionally been non-starters on the Emmy ranch. Meanwhile, former Best Drama Supporting Actress nominee Christine Baranski jumped over to Best Drama Actress for Season 3, but was never in serious contention with our oddsmakers, currently sitting at No. 31.
Drama Actress
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Keri Russell
The Diplomat
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5.
Carrie Coon
The Gilded Age
6.
Chase Infiniti
The Testaments
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Michelle Pfeiffer
The Madison
8.
Jennifer Aniston
The Morning Show
9.
10.
Christine Baranski
The Gilded Age
Certainly, a Season 3 drop-off wouldn’t preclude a Season 4 comeback, and anticipation for the show’s return is at an all-time high following its cliffhanger finale. And at the end of the day, all of this year’s nominees are just competing to come in second to HBO’s awards monster The Pitt. Just call Dr. Robby the Emmy Daddy.
Is Darth Maul Disney+’s only hope?
Here’s a Sith-uation we never saw coming: Qui-Gon Jinn’s executioner may just be the savior for Disney+’s otherwise moribund Emmy hopes. Coming off last year’s haul of 28 nominations — the third-lowest in its five-year competitive history — the Mouse House’s streaming service entered the 2026 race bereft of narrative series like Andor, The Mandalorian, and WandaVision that previously racked up nominations in the major categories.
The closest thing to a contender was Marvel Television’s well-reviewed, if modestly seen Wonder Man. Ultimately, though, only Wonder Man himself, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, cracked the Top 10 among the Best Comedy Actor candidates, and never made it close to the Top 5.
Comedy Actor
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Martin Short
Only Murders in the Building
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Jeremy Allen White
The Bear
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Adam Brody
Nobody Wants This
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Steve Martin
Only Murders in the Building
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Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
Wonder Man
9.
10.
Tim Robinson
The Chair Company
But here comes Darth Maul to the rescue. The animated Star Wars series Maul — Shadow Lord came out of the gate strong with the franchise’s first 100% Rotten Tomatoes score (though that number has since sunk to… 98%), and is ranked No. 5 on the Best Animated Program chart.
If Shadow Lord secures a spot on Wednesday, it’ll be the first Disney+ era Star Wars animated series to be in contention for that prize, and the first in-canon Star Wars cartoon to be recognized since Cartoon Network’s Star Wars: The Clone Wars series scored back-to-back wins in 2004 and 2005 — back in the days when the category was divided between hour-long and half-hour long series. (The Robot Chicken-made Star Wars specials also notched several nominations.)
Coming off of The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s underwhelming summertime performance at the multiplex, Shadow Lord could be the awards player the Star Wars franchise is looking for.
Animated Program
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Star Wars: Maul – Shadow Lord
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Genndy Tartakovsky’s Primal
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Stranger Things: Tales from ’85
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