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Home»Awards & Events»Box office forecast: Supergirl, Jackass open vs. Toy Story 5
Awards & Events

Box office forecast: Supergirl, Jackass open vs. Toy Story 5

Williams MBy Williams MJune 28, 2026No Comments5 Mins Read
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Update, June 28:

Supergirl was no match for Woody, Buzz, and the rest of the gang. DC’s follow-up to last year’s hit Superman barely got off the ground, opening with an underpowered $38 million domestically and $68 million worldwide. That was far below Warner Bros.’ projected $50 million launch, and with a B-minus CinemaScore and lackluster Rotten Tomatoes rating, it’s difficult to see a path to profitably for a flick that cost $170 million to produce and nearly as much to market.

Meanwhile, Toy Story 5 maintained its dominance over the box office, with $70 million domestically in week two (also below studio projections). The sequel is closing in on $300 million in North America and $600 worldwide, milestones it should hit in the next few days.

Tim Robinson; Obsession

The other notable weekend entry in wide release was Jackass: Best and Last, which pratfalled to a franchise-low $8.2 million in North America. Unlike Supergirl, however, the new Jackass cost around $10 million, and, with a decent A-minus CinemaScore, should wind up in the black (and blue?) soon enough.

In limited release, Olivia Wilde’s A24 comedy The Invite debuted with $379,104 on just seven screens in New York and Los Angeles, translating to a strong $54,158 per location. The movie, which co-stars Seth Rogen, Penélope Cruz, and Edward Norton, will expand nationwide on July 10.

Here’s a snapshot of the June 26-28 weekend box office based on Sunday estimates:

1. Toy Story 5 — $70 million
2. Supergirl — $38 million
3. Obsession — $9.8 million
4. Jackass: Best and Last — $8.4 million
5. Disclosure Day — $8.1 million

Original Story, June 25:

Toy Story 5 isn’t done yet. After blasting off to a franchise-record $160 million opening — the biggest domestic debut of 2026 — Pixar’s latest is eyeing $80 million–$90 million in its second weekend. It crossed $200 million domestically this week, including a $23.7 million Tuesday that ranks as the best single Tuesday of 2026. The film holds a 93% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes and an “A” CinemaScore, the kind of grades that keep audiences coming back.

The big question is whether Supergirl can mount any kind of challenge. Warner Bros. and DC Studios’ $170 million follow-up to last summer’s Superman is tracking at $45 million–$50 million, per studio estimates, though independent models are cooler on it, projecting something in the upper $30 million–low $40 million range. Craig Gillespie directs Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El, who travels the cosmos with her dog Krypto in an adaptation of Tom King and Bilquis Evely’s acclaimed graphic novel. Critics are hovering around 57% “rotten” on the Tomatometer, presales suggest a roughly $7 million Thursday preview night, and the film is landing in the quiet stretch between Father’s Day and the Fourth of July — not exactly prime real estate. Early tracking also shows the audience skewing heavily toward older male comic book fans, which makes a broad opening harder to pull off. Superman’s goodwill should help; Supergirl just needs casual audiences to show up.

Then there’s Jackass: Best and Last, Paramount’s final (sure, guys) entry in the prank-comedy franchise, opening in 2,800 theaters with projections around $10 million. That would be the lowest debut in franchise history — well below Jackass Forever’s $23.1 million in 2022 and light years behind Jackass 3D’s $50.3 million franchise record from 2010. The likely culprit: Best and Last mixes new stunts with archival footage rather than going full original, which may be giving fans pause. At a roughly $10 million production cost, though, it doesn’t need to swing big to turn a profit.

Rounding out the top five should be two familiar faces. Focus Features’ Obsession — Curry Barker’s micro-budget phenomenon — is now in its seventh weekend at $215 million domestically and projected to earn another $10 million. Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day, meanwhile, is tracking $8 million–$9 million in its third frame after a $44 million debut two weeks ago.

New releases

Supergirl
Director: Craig Gillespie
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Kara Zor-El, aka Supergirl, joins forces with an unlikely companion on an interstellar journey of vengeance and justice when an unexpected adversary strikes too close to home. The comic book movie has a running time of one hour, 47 minutes, and is rated PG-13. Supergirl is certified “rotten” with a 57% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “mixed” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 49%.

Jackass: Best and Last
Director: Jeff Tremaine
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Follows the Jackass crew as they perform their final series of dangerous stunts and pranks, marking the end of the franchise. The prank comedy has a running time of one hour, 32 minutes, and is rated R. As of this writing, Jackass: Best and Last had no official score on Rotten Tomatoes or Metacritic.

Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the June 26-28 weekend:

1. Toy Story 5 — $90 million
2. Supergirl — $45 million
3. Obsession — $11 million
4. Jackass: Best and Last — $10 million
5. Disclosure Day — $8 million

Jessie Buzz Woody Toy Story 5

2026 box-office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million

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