Every year, more supporting acting contenders are submitted for Emmy consideration than in any other acting category, which is one reason these races are often the hardest to predict. This year is no exception.
With two weeks to go until the nominations are announced, the Gold Derby odds are most fractured in the supporting contests for comedy and drama. In each of these four races, there are 10 strong options angling for seven slots. Let’s dive into which potential nominees are essentially locks, and which ones are hoping their bubble doesn’t get popped.
Best Comedy Supporting Actress (149 submissions; 7 nominations)
Comedy Supporting Actress
1.
Janelle James
Abbott Elementary
2.
3.
Jessica Williams
Shrinking
4.
Michelle Pfeiffer
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
5.
Sheryl Lee Ralph
Abbott Elementary
6.
7.
Kate O’Flynn
Widow’s Bay
8.
Carol Burnett
Palm Royale
9.
Ashley Padilla
Saturday Night Live
10.
Liza Colon-Zayas
The Bear
The five category leaders all have 70% or more support from our experts, editors, and users: Janelle James (Abbott Elementary), Hannah Einbinder (Hacks), Jessica Williams (Shrinking), Michelle Pfeiffer (Margo’s Got Money Troubles), and Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary). But who gets the other two slots?
Megan Stalter (54%) has never been nominated before for playing Kayla Schaefer, but she could easily ride the wave of support for the heralded fifth and final season of Hacks. Her biggest competition might be Einbinder, who won this category last year; however, Emmy voters frequently nominate co-stars in the same category.
Kate O’Flynn (37%) has been rising for weeks as the horror comedy Widow’s Bay aired during the final weeks of Emmy eligibility, making it top of mind as voting commenced. O’Flynn had an entire episode dedicated to her quirky character, Patricia Moyer, who unknowingly curses everyone who comes to her Sunset Cocktails party.
Carol Burnett (25%) is a bona fide Emmy legend, winning seven trophies from 25 nominations throughout her career. She has already been nominated once for playing the villainous Norma Dellacorte on Palm Royale, so why not again for the final season?
SNL breakout Ashley Padilla (22%) went viral every week for viral sketches including “Two People Who Just Hooked Up,” “Mom Confession,” “Passing Notes,” and “Cyclops.” For someone who was about to “quit comedy” before Saturday Night Live came calling, as she told Gold Derby, an Emmy nomination would truly be a Cinderella moment for Padilla.
Liza Colón-Zayas (16%) won this category rather surprisingly in 2024 for playing line cook Tina Marrero on The Bear, and received an additional nom last year. While the fifth and final season of FX’s cooking dramedy debuts on Thursday, Colón-Zayas will actually be competing for the underwhelming Season 4 at the upcoming Emmys.
Best Comedy Supporting Actor (185 submissions; 7 nominations)
Comedy Supporting Actor
1.
2.
3.
4.
Nick Offerman
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
5.
Ebon Moss-Bachrach
The Bear
6.
Tyler James Williams
Abbott Elementary
7.
Bowen Yang
Saturday Night Live
8.
Colman Domingo
The Four Seasons
9.
10.
Marcello Hernandez
Saturday Night Live
A half-dozen men have at least 60% support to receive a nod for this category: Harrison Ford (Shrinking), Paul W. Downs (Hacks), Michael Urie (Shrinking), Nick Offerman (Margo’s Got Money Troubles), Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear), and Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary). That leaves just one nomination up for grabs, should our odds pan out.
It makes sense that Bowen Yang (45%) is a bubble Emmy contender considering that his final episode of Saturday Night Live was hosted by Ariana Grande, aka “the girl in the bubble” from Wicked. Yang has already received four nominations for the sketch comedy program, but a fifth would be special as it’d be for his last season.
Never count out Colman Domingo (31%). Last year, he was the sole Emmy representative from The Four Seasons, Tina Fey’s latest show about a group of vacationing friends. Domingo could be one of the few performers to reap two nominations this year, as he also delivers a memorable guest performance in the final season of Euphoria.
Much like O’Flynn, Stephen Root (24%) is skyrocketing in our predictions for the spooky yet quirky Widow’s Bay. The veteran actor plays townsperson Wyck Crawford, who frequently clashes with Mayor Tom Loftis (Matthew Rhys) about the island’s alleged curse. This would be Root’s second career nomination after Barry (2019).
Marcello Hernández (14%) is another SNL performer hoping to hear his name called on nominations morning. With viral characters like Domingo, Sebastian Maniscalco, and Don Francisco under his belt, Hernández’s star is undeniably on the rise, and he will next be heard on the big screen in animated films The Angry Birds Movie 3 and Shrek 5.
Best Drama Supporting Actress (222 submissions; 7 nominations)
Drama Supporting Actress
1.
Katherine LaNasa
The Pitt
2.
3.
Julianne Nicholson
Paradise
4.
5.
Allison Janney
The Diplomat
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Last year’s winner, Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt), joins Taylor Dearden (The Pitt), Julianne Nicholson (Paradise), Karolina Wydra (Pluribus), Allison Janney (The Diplomat), and Sepideh Moafi (The Pitt) as the six category front-runners, all of whom enjoy more than 60% support for a nomination. Several others are jockeying for that final position.
The Pitt co-stars Fiona Dourif (35%) and Isa Briones (31%) are neck-and-neck. Dourif plays Dr. Cassie McKay, a single mother who wears an ankle monitor due to a pending legal issue regarding her ex-husband. Briones takes on the role of Dr. Trinity Santos, a second-year resident who holds more authority in Season 2. Both actresses are seeking their first career Emmy nominations.
Sydney Sweeney (13%) temporarily paused her burgeoning film career to return to Euphoria for its final season. She plays Cassie Jacobs, whose marriage to Nate Jacobs (Jacob Elordi) leads to missing digits, desert shoot-outs, and an OnlyFans modeling career — oh my!
On Task, Emilia Jones (11%) plays Maeve Prendergrast, the young niece of Robbie Prendergrast (Tom Pelphrey). The crime drama is an acting showcase for Pelphrey and Mark Ruffalo as FBI Agent Tom Brandis, and Jones could go along for the ride — after all, she was recently recognized by the BAFTA Awards for this role.
Best Drama Supporting Actor (228 submissions; 7 nominations)
Drama Supporting Actor
1.
2.
3.
4.
Billy Crudup
The Morning Show
5.
6.
7.
Carlos-Manuel Vesga
Pluribus
8.
9.
10.
Dexter Sol Ansell
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Two-time category winner Billy Crudup (The Morning Show) is back again, and this time he’s expected to compete against Patrick Ball (The Pitt), Shawn Hatosy (The Pitt, who won an Emmy last year in the guest category), Pelphrey, Jack Lowden (Slow Horses), and Gerran Howell (The Pitt). All six have higher than 60% support in our predictions data, but who’s clawing to get in?
Colombian actor Carlos-Manuel Vesga (49%) burst onto the Hollywood scene thanks to Pluribus. He plays Manousos Oviedo, one of just a handful of humans who remains unaffected after a worldwide happiness virus is released. Vesga’s best moments come in the latter half of Season 1, so he’s no doubt hoping Emmy voters watch the entire thing.
James Marsden (23%) earned a notice last year for playing the deceased President Cal Bradford in Paradise, and while he did return in Season 2, it was in a much smaller capacity. Notably, Marsden is the only nominee from last year’s Emmy lineup eligible to return, as Severance and The White Lotus gobbled up all of the rest of the slots, and neither aired this season.
Jacob Elordi (14%) is coming off an Oscar nomination for Frankenstein, which could help his chances for Euphoria. But what could hurt his chances are the mixed reviews for the final season, and the fact that his character, Nate Jacobs, was involved in a repetitive storyline that often had him separated from the rest of the cast.
Finally, there is a potential age record on the line in the form of Dexter Sol Ansell (10%). The 11-year-old star of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms is four years younger than Owen Cooper (Adolescence) was last year when he became the youngest male actor ever to win an Emmy. Ansell plays fan-fave character Prince Aegon “Egg” Targaryen, the knowledgeable squire of Ser Duncan “Dunk” the Tall (Peter Claffey), on the Game of Thrones prequel series.
The 2026 Emmys nominations will be announced July 8.
