The Pitt could split the vote in Emmy writing race

Is history about to repeat itself in Best Drama Writing?

Best Drama Series front-runner The Pitt has two episodes in contention at the 2026 Emmys and may cannibalize itself, winding up with the same result as last year. With the possibility of a vote-split in play, the category might boil down to a race between rookie series Pluribus and former winner Slow Horses.

The momentum can go either way, especially given last year’s surprise winner, Andor. That’s why this may be one of the most exciting categories of the night, as the writers’ branch has a history of ignoring expectations and going its own way.

Here’s our full breakdown of the writing category — listed in order of the Gold Derby expert odds.  

Vince Gilligan for Pluribus

Episode: “We Is Us”
Synopsis: An apocalyptic virus spreads across the world, turning nearly everyone into a positive hive mind.
Emmy history: This is Gilligan’s 26th Emmy nomination and his third for writing. He is also nominated for directing and producing Pluribus, with previous nominations for Better Call Saul, Breaking Bad, The X-Files and El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie. He is a four-time Emmy winner, earning two awards for producing Breaking Bad and two for Better Call Saul Employee Training.

Although much of the Pluribus premiere unfolds with little or no dialogue, the episode’s meticulous depiction of a virus’ origins and rapid spread requires careful planning on the page. Gilligan also has to track Carol Sturka’s (Rhea Seehorn) mounting confusion and horror as everyone around her — including her partner, who suffers a slow death — falls victim to the outbreak. The episode’s most substantial dialogue scene arrives near the end, when Carol speaks with a White House representative (Peter Bergman), who explains the virus and reveals what officials hope to do because she is immune. The revelation leaves Carol in a terrifyingly helpless position.

Will Smith for Slow Horses

Episode: “Scars”
Synopsis: The team tries to stop a terrorist from orchestrating a deadly attack.
Emmy history: This is Smith’s eighth Emmy nomination. He previously won this category in 2024, and won twice for producing Veep. He is also nominated this year for producing Slow Horses.

This season finale matches its adrenaline-fueled intensity with a sharper focus on dialogue. It opens with MI5 attempting to negotiate with a terrorist and moves through a series of action sequences, intimate two-hander scenes, playful exchanges and razor-sharp one-liners. The episode is packed with cat-and-mouse maneuvers as its characters try to outwit one another, but its quieter moments give the writing its emotional weight — particularly River’s (Jack Lowden) symbolic conversation with his grandfather (Jonathan Pryce), who is living with advanced dementia. And, like Pluribus, the episode saves its biggest revelation for the end, using an extended scene to unveil crucial information about Jackson Lamb (Gary Oldman).

Valerie Chu for The Pitt

Episode: “12:00 P.M.”
Synopsis: The medical staff reels from the death of a beloved patient.
Emmy history: This is the first Emmy nomination for Chu.

This poignant hour tugs at the heartstrings as it bids farewell to beloved patient Louie Cloverfield, played by Ernest Harden Jr., who won Best Drama Guest Actor at last weekend’s Creative Arts Emmy Awards. Louie dies of liver failure caused by alcoholism, prompting the medical staff to learn more about his life after his death. The episode also follows Dana (Katherine LaNasa) and Langdon (Patrick Ball) as they discuss recovery and forgiveness, Santos (Isa Briones) as she turns to AI, and another patient coping with worsening pain from advanced cancer. It all culminates with the staff coming together to honor Louie after learning his devastating backstory.

Kirsten Pierre-Geyfman and R. Scott Gemmill for The Pitt

Episode: “1:00 P.M.”
Synopsis: More patients flood into the trauma center with varying degrees of conditions, while Langdon continues to seek forgiveness.
Emmy history: This is the Pierre-Geyfman’s first Emmy nomination and Gemmill’s sixth. Gemmill won for producing The Pitt last year, for which he is also nominated again this year, and was previously nominated for producing ER.

This episode begins the sexual assault storyline, where the victim Ilana Miller (Tina Ivlev) is admitted and scared to report her assault, resulting in a poignant scene between her and Dana. Meanwhile, Santos tries to communicate with a deaf person and singing a Hiligaynon lullaby to a baby, Abbot and his SWAT team bring in a wounded officer, and the doctors have to treat a patient severely maimed by a boat propeller. These storylines are balanced with Langdon’s attempts to seek forgiveness from Robby (Noah Wyle), who is less receptive. The episode culminates with a cyberattack on the hospital computer systems.

Peter Ackerman and Debora Cahn for The Diplomat

Episode: “Amagansett”
Synopsis: Kate considers taking a giant, altering risk in the midst of a massive crisis.
Emmy history: This is Ackerman’s fourth Emmy nomination and Cahn’s fifth. Both are also nominated for producing The Diplomat. Ackerman was previously cited for producing The Americans, while Cahn was previously recognized for producing Grey’s Anatomy and The West Wing.

This is an episode where characters rarely say exactly what they are feeling. Its emotional force lies in the reactions, pauses and subtext, with nearly every exchange operating on multiple levels — particularly those between Kate (Keri Russell) and Hal Wyler (Rufus Sewell). Though they discuss policy, strategy and political consequences, the conversation serves as a smokescreen for negotiating the terms of their marriage. The shifting power dynamics are a highlight, as Kate, Hal, and the Penns maneuver to determine who will take the blame for the bombing.

Brad Ingelsby for Task

Episode: “A Still Small Voice”
Synopsis: Betrayals are revealed, characters are hunted down, and Tom finally makes a difficult decision about the fate of his son.
Emmy history: This is Ingelsby’s third Emmy nomination. He was previously nominated for writing and producing Mare of Easttown in 2021.

This is yet another action-heavy episode in this category, delivering ample bloodshed and suspense, with multiple shootings and deaths as a complex drug investigation reaches its violent conclusion. But the episode’s most powerful moment arrives near the end, when Tom Brandis (Mark Ruffalo) delivers a tearful five-minute monologue that completes his season-long arc. At his adopted son’s sentencing, Tom forgives the young man for murdering Tom’s wife during a severe mental-health crisis.

Per the current Gold Derby expert odds, Pluribus has a commanding lead with a 79% chance of winning, while The Pitt and Slow Horses trail in second place, each with 8% odds. But this category may be more open than what the numbers reveal, especially after last year’s surprise.

The Primetime Emmys will air Sept. 14 on NBC.