When the nominations for the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards were announced on July 8, the list of the top contenders looked familiar… mostly. At the top — with 25 nods — was last year’s winner for Best Drama Series, The Pitt. And just below that — with 24 — was the ever-strong comedy candidate, Hacks, now free from competition with The Studio and ready to claim victory-lap prizes for its final season.
But there was something else lurking in the water, a new series, less than a month out from its first season finale when nominations were announced. Widow’s Bay, from creator-showrunner Katie Dippold, arrived on the scene with a third-best 19 nominations and an already-devoted fanbase, and the arc its odds in top categories have taken paint a picture of a show clearly catching on and potentially mounting a few upsets.
Perhaps the tightest race on the comedy side of the Primetime Emmys is also its biggest. In most years, Hacks would have been a lock for Best Comedy Series. The show — which stars award powerhouse Jean Smart and last year’s winner for Comedy Supporting Actress, Hannah Einbinder — has been nominated in Series for each of its five season, winning for its third. Last year, its chances for back-to-back wins were scuttled by the record-breaking run of The Studio, which missed the eligibility window for a repeat of its own. But for Hacks‘ final season, instead of gliding to a congratulatory victory after a successful run, its been met by a zeitgeist-grabbing newcomer, whose combined Gold Derby odds (including experts, editors, and users) have only gone up since its impressive nominations showing.
When filtered by Gold Derby’s experts (a group of journalists and critics from major publications who cover awards year-round), the odds are flipped, with Widow’s Bay in the lead.
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Best Comedy Supporting Actress
The shift in favorite status is even more stark in Best Comedy Supporting Actress. While Widow’s Bay has many strong qualities, forced to choose a single element to explain its appeal, one could do a lot worse than pointing to Kate O’Flynn’s performance as Patricia. Her odds began to climb slowly and steadily after the nominations were announced, but the gap between her and Einbinder has narrowed rapidly during the voting window.
Again, there’s a divide between overall users and the experts, who have O’Flynn in the comfortable lead.
Comedy Supporting Actress
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Kate O’Flynn
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The one apparent slam dunk category for Widow’s Bay is also the one where it doesn’t face a competitor from Hacks. Matthew Rhys, as the headlining star, led new show out of the gate as it best-known element among general viewing audiences, and it only helped matters that his committed performance as beleaguered town mayor Tom Loftis seemed to nail Widow’s Bays‘ tricky tone.
Perhaps the secret sauce of the series, director Hiro Murai has had his combined odds follow a similar trajectory in the weeks since nominations. A previous winner for his work as a producer on The Bear, Murai is one of the more distinct visual stylists working in comedy television right now, and his fingerprints on Widow’s Bay appear to be getting some notice among predictors.
The Gold Derby experts have split from the users in this race as well, flocking to Murai in recent days.
Comedy Directing
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Widow’s Bay
Welcome to Widow’s Bay
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