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Home»Awards & Events»Katherine LaNasa Emmy odds: 4 The Pitt nominees could split the vote
Awards & Events

Katherine LaNasa Emmy odds: 4 The Pitt nominees could split the vote

Williams MBy Williams MAugust 26, 2026No Comments4 Mins Read
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Katherine LaNasa is the defending Emmys champ in Best Drama Supporting Actress for The Pitt, and Gold Derby’s experts have her winning again — she’s got a 68.4% chance according to them. But the competition looks a little different this year, and history suggests LaNasa could be in for a bigger battle than the odds let on.

The show landed four of the seven nominees in this category: Taylor Dearden, Fiona Dourif, Sepideh Moafi, and LaNasa. The other three slots went to Allison Janney (The Diplomat), Julianne Nicholson (Paradise), and Karolina Wydra (Pluribus), all legitimate upset threats.

Janney is the most decorated. She has seven acting Emmys, and an eighth would tie her with Cloris Leachman and Julia Louis-Dreyfus for the most any performer has ever won. Nicholson has two, for Mare of Easttown in 2021 and a Hacks guest turn last year. Wydra is the newcomer, a first-time nominee from Apple TV’s freshman breakout Pluribus.

Christine Baranski, Cynthia Nixon, and Carrie Coon in 'The Gilded Age'

Behind LaNasa, the field is bunched. Janney and Moafi are tied for second among experts at 10.5%, with Nicholson and Wydra at 5.3%. In Gold Derby’s combined odds, which factor in all users, LaNasa sits at 75.7%, followed by Moafi and Wydra.

Primetime Emmy Awards 2026

Emmy voters have a long history of walking away from crowded casts in this category. Since 1980, a show has landed three or more nominees in Best Drama Supporting Actress 16 times. In nine of those instances, the winner came from somewhere else. Not a good stat for LaNasa.

It’s also happening far more often. Seven of the last 10 years have featured a show with three or more nominees here, after just two such years in the previous 14.

And those shows keep losing. Game of Thrones came up empty in 2016 and 2019, The Handmaid’s Tale in 2018 and 2021, The Morning Show in 2024, and The White Lotus last year, when four of its actresses lost to LaNasa herself.

In 2021, two shows dominated the field — The Handmaid’s Tale with four nominees and The Crown with three — and Gillian Anderson pulled out the victory for The Crown, the smaller of the two groups. The Pitt is the only show with multiple nominations this year, so it’s not a direct comparison.

Ann Dowd has been on both sides of it. She won in 2017 as The Handmaid’s Tale‘s only nominee, then lost the following year to Thandiwe Newton (Westworld) when co-stars Alexis Bledel and Yvonne Strahovski were nominated alongside Dowd. It’s the closest parallel to LaNasa, who was The Pitt‘s lone nominee here last year and now shares the category with three co-stars.

Here’s every time a show has landed three or more nominees in this category, including twice in 2021:

Year Show Nominees Result
1980 Lou Grant Nina Foch, Linda Kelsey, Nancy Marchand Won — Marchand
1984 Hill Street Blues Barbara Bosson, Betty Thomas, Alfre Woodard Won — Woodard
1989 L.A. Law Michele Greene, Amanda Plummer, Susan Ruttan Lost
1994 NYPD Blue Amy Brenneman, Sharon Lawrence, Gail O’Grady Lost
1997 ER Laura Innes, C.C.H. Pounder, Gloria Reuben Lost
1999 The Practice Lara Flynn Boyle, Camryn Manheim, Holland Taylor Won — Taylor
2002 The West Wing Stockard Channing, Janel Moloney, Mary-Louise Parker Won — Channing
2007 Grey’s Anatomy Katherine Heigl, Sandra Oh, Chandra Wilson Won — Heigl
2016 Game of Thrones Emilia Clarke, Lena Headey, Maisie Williams Lost
2018 The Handmaid’s Tale Alexis Bledel, Ann Dowd, Yvonne Strahovski Lost
2019 Game of Thrones Gwendoline Christie, Lena Headey, Sophie Turner, Maisie Williams Lost
2021 The Crown Gillian Anderson, Helena Bonham Carter, Emerald Fennell Won — Anderson
2021 The Handmaid’s Tale Madeline Brewer, Ann Dowd, Yvonne Strahovski, Samira Wiley Lost
2023 The White Lotus Jennifer Coolidge, Meghann Fahy, Sabrina Impacciatore, Aubrey Plaza, Simona Tabasco Won — Coolidge
2024 The Morning Show Nicole Beharie, Greta Lee, Karen Pittman, Holland Taylor Lost
2025 The White Lotus Carrie Coon, Parker Posey, Natasha Rothwell, Aimee Lou Wood Lost
2026 The Pitt Taylor Dearden, Fiona Dourif, Katherine LaNasa, Sepideh Moafi TBD

But there’s a recent result that’s good news for LaNasa. In 2023, The White Lotus put five actresses in this category — the biggest bloc any show has ever assembled, one more than The Pitt has now — and Jennifer Coolidge won anyway. She went in as the presumed front-runner with the odds firmly in her favor, and the crowd didn’t cost her a thing. LaNasa is in the same spot.

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