Hacks or Widow’s Bay? The Pitt or Pluribus? Beef or DTF St. Louis?
With Emmy voting now open (it runs until Aug. 26), here’s where the Gold Derby odds stand for the major comedy, drama, and limited/movie categories.
In a last-ditch effort to appeal to undecided Television Academy members, many contenders were out campaigning over the weekend at events like the Televerse Festival and HBO Max’s nominees ceremony. We’ll find out whether or not it made a difference when the winners are announced on Sept. 5–6 (Creative Arts Emmys) and Sept. 14 (Primetime Emmys).
COMEDY
Hacks has held the top spot in Gold Derby’s predictions center all season long, but Widow’s Bay has been climbing in recent weeks. For voters who find comfort in the familiar, Hacks will be an easy choice since it’s been nominated for all five seasons, winning for Season 3 in 2024. Jean Smart is on track to receive her fifth lead actress win, while her co-star Hannah Einbinder is looking for a bookend trophy after finally prevailing last year. The series finale is also the odds-on pick for both Best Comedy Directing and Best Comedy Writing.
Any voters looking to anoint an out-of-the-box dark horse may opt to pick Widow’s Bay for Best Comedy Series instead. The first-year horror show is in the No. 1 position in Best Comedy Actor for Matthew Rhys. Shrinking is also expected to get on the board in Best Comedy Supporting Actor for legendary performer Harrison Ford.
BEST COMEDY SERIES
Comedy Series
1.
2.
3.
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
4.
5.
6.
7.
Only Murders in the Building
8.
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Comedy Actor
1.
2.
Martin Short
Only Murders in the Building
3.
4.
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
Wonder Man
5.
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Comedy Actress
1.
2.
3.
Elle Fanning
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
4.
Quinta Brunson
Abbott Elementary
5.
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Comedy Supporting Actor
1.
2.
3.
4.
Nick Offerman
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
5.
Colman Domingo
The Four Seasons
6.
Tyler James Williams
Abbott Elementary
7.
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Comedy Supporting Actress
1.
2.
Kate O’Flynn
Widow’s Bay
3.
Michelle Pfeiffer
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
4.
Janelle James
Abbott Elementary
5.
6.
7.
Jessica Williams
Shrinking
BEST COMEDY DIRECTING
Comedy Directing
1.
2.
Widow’s Bay
Welcome to Widow’s Bay
3.
The Chair Company
Life Goes By Too Fast
4.
Abbott Elementary
Ballgame
5.
6.
The Ms. Pat Show
Give It Arrest
BEST COMEDY WRITING
Comedy Writing
1.
2.
Widow’s Bay
Welcome to Widow’s Bay
3.
The Comeback
Valerie Does It All
4.
The Chair Company
Life Goes By Too Fast
5.
Abbott Elementary
Team Building
6.
Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat
Mergers And Acquisitions
DRAMA
The Pitt was a five-time Emmy winner last year for Best Drama Series, Best Drama Actor (Noah Wyle), Best Drama Supporting Actress (Katherine LaNasa), Best Drama Guest Actor (Shawn Hatosy, now competing in supporting), and Best Drama Casting. The HBO Max medical drama is on top again in many of those categories, plus first-time nominee Patrick Ball has the edge in Best Drama Supporting Actor, where The Pitt is competing for the first time.
One category where something else will definitely win is Best Drama Actress, since The Pitt isn’t eligible. That’s a close race between Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus) and Keri Russell (The Diplomat), with the former triumphing at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, and the latter securing victory at the Actor Awards. Speaking of Pluribus, the sci-fi show is the favorite to claim the one-two punch of Best Drama Directing and Best Drama Writing, both for creator Vince Gilligan.
BEST DRAMA SERIES
Drama Series
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
8.
Your Friends and Neighbors
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Drama Actor
1.
2.
Sterling K. Brown
Paradise
3.
4.
5.
Rufus Sewell
The Diplomat
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Drama Actress
1.
2.
Keri Russell
The Diplomat
3.
4.
Carrie Coon
The Gilded Age
5.
Chase Infiniti
The Testaments
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Drama Supporting Actor
1.
2.
3.
4.
Billy Crudup
The Morning Show
5.
6.
Carlos-Manuel Vesga
Pluribus
7.
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Drama Supporting Actress
1.
Katherine LaNasa
The Pitt
2.
3.
4.
Allison Janney
The Diplomat
5.
Julianne Nicholson
Paradise
6.
7.
BEST DRAMA DIRECTING
Drama Directing
1.
2.
3.
Task
Out Beyond Ideas of Wrongdoing and Rightdoing, There Is a River
4.
The Gilded Age
My Mind Is Made Up
5.
6.
BEST DRAMA WRITING
LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE
Beef won this top category in 2023 for its first installment and is now the front-runner to claim a bookend trophy. Series leads Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan are out front in their contests, which would repeat the wins of original stars Steven Yeun and Ali Wong. Our Emmy predictors also think voters will want seconds in Best Limited/Movie Writing.
However, the corresponding Best Limited/Movie Directing category is projected to go to DTF St. Louis — perhaps because Beef has two directors nominated and could split the vote. DTF is also the favorite for supporting players David Harbour and Linda Cardellini. Finally, the Sally Field-starrer Remarkably Bright Creatures has the edge to win Best Movie.
BEST LIMITED SERIES
BEST MOVIE
Movie
1.
Remarkably Bright Creatures
2.
3.
People We Meet on Vacation
4.
5.
BEST LIMITED/MOVIE ACTOR
Movie/Limited Actor
1.
2.
Matthew Rhys
The Beast in Me
3.
4.
Charlie Hunnam
Monster: The Ed Gein Story
5.
Jason Bateman
Black Rabbit
BEST LIMITED/MOVIE ACTRESS
Movie/Limited Actress
1.
2.
Sarah Snook
All Her Fault
3.
4.
Sally Field
Remarkably Bright Creatures
5.
Claire Danes
The Beast in Me
BEST LIMITED/MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR
Limited/Movie Supporting Actor
1.
David Harbour
DTF St. Louis
2.
3.
4.
Jason Bateman
DTF St. Louis
5.
Nick Offerman
Death by Lightning
6.
Richard Jenkins
DTF St. Louis
BEST LIMITED/MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Limited/Movie Supporting Actress
1.
Linda Cardellini
DTF St. Louis
2.
3.
Constance Zimmer
Love Story
4.
Dakota Fanning
All Her Fault
5.
Laurie Metcalf
Monster: The Ed Gein Story
6.
BEST LIMITED/MOVIE DIRECTING
Limited/Movie Directing
1.
2.
Beef
Oh, The Comfort, The Inexpressible Comfort
3.
Beef
It Will Stay This Way And You Will Obey
4.
