Country music is having a moment. For the first time ever, the genre accounted for the top five songs on Billboard‘s Hot 100. Veterans like Morgan Wallen and Taylor Swift and relative newcomers Ella Langley and Stella Lefty blocked out hits from major pop acts like Ariana Grande, Olivia Dean, Bruno Mars, and Tame Impala from the upper reaches of the countdown. With such a dominant year for the genre — and perhaps a weaker year for pop — this could be the first time in more than decade that the Grammys reward a country artist with the biggest song prize of all, Record of the Year.
The Grammys have had a rocky relationship with country music singles. In the seven-decade history of the awards, only two true country songs ever have taken Record of the Year: “Not Ready to Make Nice” by The Chicks in 2007 and “Need You Now” by Lady A in 2011. That’s a low number even taking into account the obvious bias for pop music. Rap, R&B, folk, jazz, and rock have all tallied more wins in the category.
Of the two previous wins for country, both had additional storylines that helped power them to victory. The Chicks were not only critically acclaimed but also had been exiled from country radio and blasted by conservative media for their politics, which was a narrative the progressive Recording Academy embraced. “Need You Now,” meanwhile, was a big crossover pop hit, essentially performing just like a standard pop ballad.
When Lady A won just four years after The Chicks, it might have appeared that voters were becoming more open to country artists, but it turned out to be the opposite.
Even though there have been zero country winners since Lady A’s victory, one might assume other songs that at least got invited to the party, but ROTY nominations have practically dried up for the Nashville set. In the 2020s, only one country hit received a nod: Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ‘Em” — which probably owes more to the respect for Beyoncé and her willingness to experiment than appreciation for the genre. Even Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song,” a massive hit, was relegated to the songwriting-focused Song of the Year in 2025, maybe due to the artist being newer and still considered a one-hit wonder at the time. (Shaboozey won a Grammy earlier this year for Best Country Duo/Group Performance for duetting with Jelly Roll on “Amen”.)
Now, however, with country dominating, who could be best positioned to break through? Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You” is unlikely to be prioritized by voters over her bigger pop hit, “The Fate of Ophelia.” Wallen has never been a Grammy darling due to his controversial past and only has two career nominations. He famously boycotted the awards in 2025, refusing to submit, and he declined to submit his hit album I’m the Problem for consideration. And while her song is a hit, Stella Lefty’s “Boston” might be relegated to SOTY for reasons similar to “A Bar Song.”
That leaves Langley as the most likely candidate to contend for Record of the Year. She is the face of this year’s country wave, with three of the Top 10 singles in the latest chart led by “Choosin’ Texas,” hands down the year’s biggest single. “Texas” has held the top spot for 17 non-consecutive weeks, and with no sign of slowing down, being now the fourth-longest-running chart-topper of all time. Langley’s album Dandelion, which contains “Texas” and the hits “Be Her” and “I Can’t Love You Anymore,” has also never left the Top 10 of the albums chart.
So what exactly is holding Langley from being a prohibitive favorite in the category? Right now she only ranks No. 6 in the Gold Derby predictions for Record of the Year, just making the cut in an eight-song field.
Record of the Year
1.
2.
3.
Taylor Swift
The Fate of Ophelia
4.
5.
6.
Ella Langley
Choosin’ Texas
7.
PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson
Stateside
8.
Rosalia, Bjork, Yves Tumor
Berghain
9.
10.
Ariana Grande
Hate That I Made You Love Me
Numbers like hers would easily lock a pop star into General Field recognition. Artists like Sabrina Carpenter, Olivia Rodrigo, and Billie Eilish all got into every General Field category due to similar crossover success in their respective breakout years.
The biggest knock against Langley is that she is loosely MAGA-affiliated, based on some resurfaced social media posts and her collaboration with Wallen on “I Can’t Love You Anymore.” Are the left-leaning voters in the Recording Academy ready to embrace Langley in such a polarizing political climate?
We’ll see soon enough whether Langley can reach the same heights as Kendrick Lamar, Bad Bunny, and Bonnie Raitt. Phase 1 voting is just over a month away, and nominations for the 69th Grammys will be announced Nov. 16.
