Days before its April release, we unequivocally stated that “it’s safe to say Michael has no shot at Best Picture, Best Director, or Best Screenplay.” But after four months and $1 billion at the box office, it’s time to moonwalk back our initial skepticism.
While we remain in the highly speculative early days of the Oscar race, with fall festivals and nearly two dozen prestige pics still queued up, we have to admit that Michael is very much in the mix in the marquee categories.
Granted, when we made our instant awards predictions, we based it largely on the near-universal critical panning of a project plagued by behind-the-scenes turmoil. As we noted, virtually every reviewer dinged Antoine Fuqua‘s Michael as a glossed-over retelling of its subject’s life story, engineered to bounce from one musical highlight to another without dwelling on any of the troubling child-abuse allegations that dogged him later in life. Some critics still found elements to enjoy; most thought the sanitized story was too much to forgive. Their aggregated verdict — an abysmal 38% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 39 score on Metacritic — signaled Michael was going to beat it from the Best Picture race. So far this century, the film no film with benchmarks that low has ever vied for the top Oscar.
Worst-Reviewed Best Picture Nominees of the 2000s
| Film | Rotten Tomatoes | Metacritic |
| Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011) | 44% | 44 |
| Don’t Look Up (2021) | 56% | 56 |
| Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) | 60% | 49 |
| The Reader (2008) | 63% | 58 |
| Chocolat (2000) | 63% | 58 |
| Vice (2018) | 64% | 61 |
| The Blind Side (2009) | 66% | 53 |
| Joker (2019) | 68% | 59 |
| Babel (2006) | 68% | 69 |
But fast forward to the latest Gold Derby Oscar nomination prediction data, and Michael is hanging tough in striking distance for Best Picture (No. 17), along with Fuqua in Best Director (No. 19), Jafar Jackson in Best Actor (No. 10), and — the only one we did call correctly back in April — Colman Domingo in Best Supporting Actor (No. 7).
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The Adventures of Cliff Booth
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Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
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The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
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Pressure
Focus
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Mother Mary
A24
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I Love Boosters
Neon
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Possible Love
Netflix
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Kent Jones
Michael Buckner/Variety
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Wuthering Heights
Warner Bros.
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Hope
Neon
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The Weight
Vertical
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 26: Stephanie Ahn attends the 29th Annual SAGindie Filmmakers Luncheon at Sundance at Cafe Terigo on January 26, 2026 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Fred Hayes/Getty Images for SAGindie)
Fred Hayes/Getty Images
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Forgotten Island
DreamWorks
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Bitter Christmas
Warner Bros.
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The Christophers
Neon
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In the Hand of Dante
Netflix
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Brian Cox
Andrew Morales for Variety
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Poetic License
Row K
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Ha-Chan
SPC
Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!
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The Get Out
Vertical
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Gail Daughtry
SPC
Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass
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Verity
Amazon MGM
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The Dog Stars
20th Century
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Harmonia
Bleecker Street
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 20: Anton Corbijn attends Stacy’s Roots to Rise Market at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival in Park City, UT on January 20, 2023. (Photo by Presley Ann/Getty Images for Stacy’s Pita Chips)
Presley Ann/Getty Images
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The Wizard of the Kremlin
Vertical
The Wizard of the Kremlin
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AUSTIN, TEXAS – MARCH 17: Fernando Meirelles attends the “Beast Race (Corrida dos Bichos)” premiere during 2026 SXSW Conference and Festival at The Paramount Theatre on March 17, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Erika Goldring/Getty Images)
Erika Goldring/Getty Images
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Her Private Hell
Neon
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Never After Dark
Magnolia
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Couture
Vertical
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HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 10: Arthur Harari and Justine Triet, winners of Original Screenplay award for ‘Anatomy of Fall’ pose in the press room during the 96th Annual Academy Awards at Ovation Hollywood on March 10, 2024 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images)
Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images
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Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo
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Phil Lord, Christopher Miller
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Alex Huston Fischer, Eleanor Wilson
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 13: Boots Riley attends the Los Angeles premiere of Neon’s “I Love Boosters” at DGA Theater Complex on May 13, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
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PARIS, FRANCE – JANUARY 13: Olivier Assayas attends the “Le Mage Du Kremlin” Premiere at Cinematheque Francaise on January 13, 2026 in Paris, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
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Guy Nattiv
John Salangsang/Variety
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 26: Stephanie Ahn attends the 29th Annual SAGindie Filmmakers Luncheon at Sundance at Cafe Terigo on January 26, 2026 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Fred Hayes/Getty Images for SAGindie)
Fred Hayes/Getty Images
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 22: Josef Kubota Wladyka attends the “Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty” Premiere at Eccles Center Theater during the 2026 Sundance Film Festival on January 22, 2026 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Neilson Barnard/Getty Images)
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BEVERLY HILLS, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 06: Maude Apatow, wearing Max Mara, poses with the WIF Max Mara Face of the Future® Award at the 2025 WIF Honors presented by Max Mara with visionary sponsor e.l.f. Cosmetics and support from Amazon MGM Studios, Apple TV, Delta Air Lines, Los Angeles County Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath, Netflix, and STARZ #TakeTheLead at The Beverly Hilton on November 06, 2025 in Beverly Hills, California. (Photo by Unique Nicole/Getty Images for WIF)
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AUSTIN, TEXAS – MARCH 17: Fernando Meirelles attends the “Beast Race (Corrida dos Bichos)” premiere during 2026 SXSW Conference and Festival at The Paramount Theatre on March 17, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Erika Goldring/Getty Images)
Erika Goldring/Getty Images
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Ridley Scott
Stewart Cook/Variety
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GANGNEUNG, SOUTH KOREA – OCTOBER 22: South Korea director Lee Chang-Dong attends the opening ceremony of Gangneung International Film Festival 2021 (GIFF) at Gangneung Arts Center on October 22, 2021 in Gangneung, South Korea. (Photo by Han Myung-Gu/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 18: Brian Duffield attends the No One Will Save You FYC Event at Linwood Dunn Theater in [Hollywood], California on May 18, 2024. (Photo by Jesse Grant/Getty Images for 20th Century Studios)
Jesse Grant/Getty Images
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CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 17: Chuko Esiri and Arie Esiri during an interview and portrait session for “Clarissa” during the 79th annual Cannes Film Festival at CBeach on May 17, 2026 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images)
Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images
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Michael Showalter
Clint Spaulding
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HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 10: Arthur Harari and Justine Triet, winners of Original Screenplay award for ‘Anatomy of Fall’ pose in the press room during the 96th Annual Academy Awards at Ovation Hollywood on March 10, 2024 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images)
Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images
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BERLIN, GERMANY – FEBRUARY 17: Director Matt Johnson poses at the “BlackBerry” photocall during the 73rd Berlinale International Film Festival Berlin at Grand Hyatt Hotel on February 17, 2023 in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Gerald Matzka/Getty Images)
Gerald Matzka/Getty Images
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 20: Anton Corbijn attends Stacy’s Roots to Rise Market at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival in Park City, UT on January 20, 2023. (Photo by Presley Ann/Getty Images for Stacy’s Pita Chips)
Presley Ann/Getty Images
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Taika Waititi photographed for the Variety Playback Podcast at the PMC Studio in Los Angeles.
Dan Doperalski for Variety
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Pedro Almodovar
Michael Buckner/Variety
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LES ARCS, FRANCE – DECEMBER 14: Alice Winocour attends the Couture Photocall during Day Two of Les Arcs Film Festival on December 14, 2025 in Les Arcs, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
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Kent Jones
Michael Buckner/Variety
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Never After Dark
Magnolia
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 27: Noah Segan attends “The Only Living Pickpocket In New York” Premiere during the 2026 Sundance Film Festival at Eccles Center Theater on January 27, 2026 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images)
Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images
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Steven Soderbergh
CHRIS CHEW/UPI/Newscom/The Mega Agency
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CABOURG, FRANCE – JUNE 13: Emmanuel Macchia attends the “Coward” photocall during Day Four of the 40th Cabourg Film Festival on June 13, 2026 in Cabourg, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
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Josh Brolin
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Brian Cox
Andrew Morales for Variety
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Alan Cumming
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CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 23: Charles Melton attends Chopard ART Evening at the Martinez on May 23, 2023 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images for Chopard)
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CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 18: Hwang Jung-min poses during the “Hope” photocall at the 79th annual Cannes Film Festival at Palais des Festivals on May 18, 2026 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Aurore Marechal/Getty Images)
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Oscar Isaac
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MADRID, SPAIN – FEBRUARY 04: Miguel Bernardeau attends the premiere of “La Fiera” at Cine Capitol on February 04, 2026 in Madrid, Spain. (Photo by Juan Naharro Gimenez/Getty Images for Disney)
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BERLIN, GERMANY – MAY 29: August Diehl arrives for the 76th Lola German Film Award at Palais am Funkturm on May 29, 2026 in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Gerald Matzka/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES – JUN 4: Michael Fassbender at the “Dark Phoenix” World Premiere at the TCL Chinese Theater IMAX on June 4, 2019 in Los Angeles, CA Newscom/(Mega Agency TagID: khphotos762805.jpg) [Photo via Mega Agency]
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LONDON, ENGLAND – MARCH 11: George MacKay attends the British Academy Film Awards 2022 Gala Dinner at The Londoner Hotel on March 11, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Joe Maher/Getty Images)
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LONDON, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 27: Frank Dillane during the BFI Presents “Urchin” Preview & Q&A at BFI Southbank on September 27, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Eamonn M. McCormack/Getty Images for BFI)
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Chris Messina
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Damian Lewis
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Brendan Fraser
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 11: Gerard Butler attends the “How To Train Your Dragon” premiere during the 2025 Tribeca Festival at SVA Theater on June 11, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images for Tribeca Festival)
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Jason Momoa
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Al Pacino
Marco Grob/Variety
So how did Michael defy the early odds? Let us count the ways.
Too big to ignore
With more than $1 billion in global ticket sales, Michael ranks among the year’s biggest blockbusters and has set new milestones not only as the highest-grossing musical biopic (blowing past Bohemian Rhapsody‘s $911 million) but as the highest-grossing biopic period (surpassing Oppenheimer‘s $977 million). That’s an eye-popping total that might influence voters when it comes to filling out the bottom of their bracket.
The international effect
Two-thirds of that take (roughly $643 million) comes from overseas. The Academy’s ever-increasing, ever-influential bloc of international voters could power Michael to some above-the-line nominations. Those overseas voters may not be as familiar with the long-running saga or inclined to hold it against the film.
Audiences loved it
Movie reviewers aren’t Oscar voters. As reflected by the rare confluence of critical accolades and Best Picture winners, the Motion Picture Academy can be swayed by populist sentiment. Audiences went gaga for Michael; beyond the box office, metrics like Rotten Tomatoes’ Popcornmeter (97%) and CinemaScore grade (A-minus) paint a far more favorable picture of the biopic than the critics’ scores.
The biopic bounce
Voters love themselves a Hollywood-ified history lesson. Since the Academy expanded the Best Picture roster in 2009, 47 of the 156 nominees — a whopping 30% — have been based on true stories. Musical biopics also tend to resonate, meaning Michael could follow the path of 21st century Academy Award players like Ray, Walk the Line, Bohemian Rhapsody, Rocketman, Elvis, and A Complete Unknown, four of which (Ray, Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis, and A Complete Unknown) vied for the top Oscar.
The Bohemian Rhapsody of it all
Perhaps the best analog for Michael is the Queen biopic, which received middling reviews but checked all the boxes above and made a major Oscar run. It tallied five nominations — Best Picture, Best Actor (Rami Malek), Best Film Editing, Best Sound Editing, and Best Sound Mixing — and won all but the big prize. Michael and Bohemian Rhapsody even share DNA: Producer Graham King was the architect of both films and knows how to shepherd an Oscar contender.
What’s next?
All that said, there’s still months to go and dozens of would-be contenders to be unspooled before the 99th Academy Award nominations are unveiled on Jan. 21, 2027. While we don’t expect Michael to be a factor when the critics’ groups start releasing their best-of lists in the fall, the moment of truth will come with the Golden Globes nominations on Dec. 7. Bohemian Rhapsody used its strong Globes showing as the launchpad for its Oscar push; look for Michael to do the same.
In the meantime, Lionsgate won’t stop ’til it gets enough of the King of Pop. Earlier this week, studio boss Adam Fogelson told analysts that he expects production to begin on the sequel “towards the end of this year or early next” with a release date targeting late 2027 or early 2028.
