What a difference four years make.
Back in 2022, Olivia Wilde arrived at the Venice Film Festival under the klieg lights of a scandal-hungry press corps eager to glean whatever details they could from the backstage drama swirling around her sophomore directorial effort, Don’t Worry Darling. Whatever awards ambitions she and Warner Bros. might have had for the sci-fi laced drama evaporated as the focus remained solely on the off-screen affairs and squabbles amongst the cast and creative team, as well as multiple Zapruder-like frame-by-frame analyses of video footage allegedly depicting Harry Styles spitting on Chris Pine. (Spoiler alert — he didn’t.)
Flash-forward to 2026, and Wilde is experiencing what one of her collaborators, writer-director Gregg Araki, describes as a “fantastic year.” That’s arguably an understatement; the director-actress has three feature films in the awards mix this year that could propel her into multiple categories come Oscar time. In short, Spit-gate has been washed clean away.
Wilde times
The dress code at Monday night’s Los Angeles premiere of Araki’s latest joint, I Want Your Sex, was “kink attire,” an appropriate directive given Wilde’s role as an S&M Norma Desmond in the writer-director’s Sunset Boulevard riff. Wilde and co-stars Cooper Hoffman and Chase Sui Wonders walked the red carpet in front of a youthful crowd of attendees and celebrities that included Alison Brie, Paul W. Downs, and Tyler Posey. (Gold Derby also spotted James Franco making the rounds, and the all-smiles welcome the Oscar nominated actor received suggests that his Hollywood exile following allegations of sexual misconduct is thawing.)
Sex‘s L.A. premiere arrived seven months after the film’s first peek-out at the 2026 Sundance Film Festival, where it played as one-half of a Wilde double bill that included her third directorial effort, The Invite. That dark marital comedy starring Seth Rogen, Edward Norton, and Penélope Cruz was the buzziest title to launch out of the festival’s final year in Park City, Utah, with A24 landing distribution rights after a heated bidding war. The specialty label’s investment has already paid off: since opening in theaters on June 25, The Invite is closing in on $20 million in the U.S. and another $13 million globally.
More importantly, the film is A24’s lone sure-thing Oscar contender heading into a busy fall season that will see the company launching hopefuls like Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, Jordan Firstman’s Cannes sensation Club Kid, and Robert Pattinson’s star turn in Primetime. The Invite recurs across Gold Derby’s Oscar nomination leaderboards with Nantucket Film Festival award-winning screenwriters Rashida Jones and Will McCormack leading the film’s charge courtesy of a No. 2 placement on our experts-only Best Adapted Screenplay leaderboard. Elsewhere, Norton registers at No. 5 among Best Supporting Actor contenders, and Cruz is No. 6 in the Best Supporting Actress rankings, with her equally celebrated (but reportedly smaller) appearance in the Cannes hit, La Bola Negra, sitting at No. 2.
Based on our early expert odds, it looks like Wilde will also be Invite-d to the Oscar party. She’s currently occupying the No. 4 spot on the Best Actress leaderboard — a category that’s seeing a much remarked-upon paucity of major contenders. In fact, the relatively thin field is fanning the flames around Inde Navarrette, the breakout star of Curry Barker’s horror phenom, Obsession, and the internet’s leading choice to win the statuette.
While Oscar voters and scary movies don’t traditionally mix, two out of the four acting winners at this year’s ceremony notably hailed from horror: Amy Madigan scored Best Supporting Actress as the witchy Aunt Gladys in Zach Cregger’s Weapons, and Michael B. Jordan upset Timothée Chalamet in Best Actor for his dual role in Ryan Coogler’s vampire yarn Sinners, a performance that Navarrette has regularly cited as one of her favorites. Even though Wilde’s star turn hasn’t generated the same level of… um, obsession, the overall love for The Invite should keep her in the conversation in the months ahead.
Best Actress
1.
2.
3.
Inde Navarrette
Obsession
4.
5.
6.
Virginie Efira
All of a Sudden
7.
Lea Seydoux
Gentle Monster
8.
Ruth Madeley
Being Heumann
9.
Mikey Madison
The Social Reckoning
10.
Emily Blunt
Disclosure Day
Even if Wilde’s Best Actress campaign falls short, she’s also got a Best Director bid for The Invite that could gain serious steam. She’s currently in fifth place behind far-and-away front-runner Christopher Nolan for The Odyssey, as well as Digger‘s Alejandro González Iñárritu, La Bola Negra‘s team of Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, and Wild Horse Nine‘s Martin McDonagh. Meanwhile, Dune: Part Three‘s Denis Villeneuve and Project Hail Mary‘s Phil Lord and Chris Miller are waiting in the wings at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively. That’s a lineup that’s heavy on spectacles, allowing Wilde’s intimate, but never claustrophobic visuals for The Invite to stand out from the crowd.
It’s also a list that’s heavy on men, and Oscar voters have admirably sought to avoid all-male Best Director lineups in recent years. Wilde could still face competition from Siân Heder, who is debuting Being Heumann — the follow-up to her Best Picture-winning CODA — in Toronto in September. Speaking of CODA, TIFF will also serve as a (re)launching pad for Beth de Araújo’s Josephine, the buzzy Sundance breakout that became the first film since CODA to win both the U.S. Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award in the U.S. Dramatic Competition. Right now, Heder sits at No. 16 among Best Director contenders, while de Araújo ranks at No. 37, but both directors may enjoy a post-festival bounce.
Best Director
1.
Christopher Nolan
The Odyssey
2.
Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo
La Bola Negra
3.
Martin McDonagh
Wild Horse Nine
4.
Alejandro G. Inarritu
Digger
5.
Denis Villeneuve
Dune: Part Three
6.
7.
8.
Phil Lord, Christopher Miller
Project Hail Mary
9.
10.
Pawel Pawlikowski
Fatherland
Looking beyond The Invite, Wilde has two paths towards Best Supporting Actress contention. The less likely road is via I Want Your Sex, a delightfully daffy movie that’s destined to join Araki’s long list of stellar cult favorites — think Mysterious Skin and Smiley Face — that never get near the Oscar race. But the Sex-positive premiere audience did visibly and vocally enjoy Wilde’s over-the-top performance, which achieves the director’s stated goal of wanting to inspire “drag queens to be her for Halloween.”
And then there’s Behemoth!, the first film in almost 15 years from writer-director Tony Gilroy, the mind behind the much-loved 2007 contender Michael Clayton. Recently announced as the centerpiece selection at the 2026 New York Film Festival, the eagerly anticipated drama features Wilde as Pedro Pascal’s ex, and her brief appearance in the film’s teaser trailer is already turning heads.
Right now, our Top 10 list of Best Supporting Actress contenders is heavy on double dippers: Cruz is up for La Bola Negra (No. 2) and The Invite (No. 6); Sandra Hüller has Digger (No. 5) and Project Hail Mary (No. 7); The Odyssey is juggling Anne Hathaway (No. 1) with Samantha Morton (No. 3); and Wild Horse Nine is a toss-up between Mariana Di Girolamo (No. 4) and Parker Posey (No. 8). That gives Wilde room to represent Behemoth! alongside single bidders like Cliff Booth‘s Elizabeth Debicki (No. 9) and All of a Sudden‘s Tao Okamoto (No. 10).
Best Supporting Actress
1.
Anne Hathaway
The Odyssey
2.
Penelope Cruz
La Bola Negra
3.
Samantha Morton
The Odyssey
4.
Mariana Di Girolamo
Wild Horse Nine
5.
6.
7.
Sandra Huller
Project Hail Mary
8.
Parker Posey
Wild Horse Nine
9.
Tao Okamoto
All of a Sudden
10.
With three nods in play, how can Wilde make history this Oscar cycle? Let us count the ways:
- The first performer-director to score Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress nominations in the same year.
- The first performer-director to score Best Director and Best Supporting Actress nominations in the same year.
- The first performer-director to score Best Director and Best Actress nominations in the same year.
- The ninth performer-director — and the first female filmmaker — to be nominated for Best Director and a lead acting category for the same movie after Orson Welles (Citizen Kane), Laurence Olivier (Hamlet), Woody Allen (Annie Hall), Warren Beatty (Heaven Can Wait and Reds), Kenneth Branagh (Henry V), Kevin Costner (Dances With Wolves), Clint Eastwood (Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby), and Roberto Benigni (Life is Beautiful).
- The tenth performer to score Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress nominations in the same year after Fay Bainter (Jezebel and White Banners), Teresa Wright (The Pride of the Yankees and The Little Foxes), Jessica Lange (Frances and Tootsie), Sigourney Weaver (Gorillas in the Mist and Working Girl), Holly Hunter (The Piano and The Firm), Emma Thompson (The Remains of the Day and In the Name of the Father), Julianne Moore (Far From Heaven and The Hours), Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age and I’m Not There), and Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit).
One thing’s for sure: if any of the above scenarios come to pass, it’s gonna be one Wilde Oscar night.
Bird’s eye view
Last week in this space, we called out Aardman’s Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom and Laika’s Wildwood as two upcoming stop-motion titles that could upend Toy Story 5‘s apparent coronation for Best Animated Feature. But San Diego Comic-Con treated us to an early peek at another potential usurper: Brad Bird’s Ray Gunn, a Netflix-funded passion project for the two-time Oscar winner behind the early aughts Pixar favorites The Incredibles and Ratatouille.
After a brief detour into live action filmmaking with 2011’s Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol and 2015’s Tomorrowland, Bird returned to Pixar for 2017’s Incredibles 2 and promptly picked up a third animation nomination. He’s currently writing and producing — but not directing — the in-production Incredibles 3, which is slated for a 2028 release.
Given his history with the Disney-owned studio, the Bird vs. Pixar dynamic is going to be a compelling storyline to watch play out this Oscar season. The director made the trek to Comic-Con for a retrospective panel covering his greatest hits, including his two Best Animated Feature winners. But a considerable portion of the session was also devoted to Ray Gunn, a film that took three decades to get off the drawing board.
“I haven’t been working on it for 30 years, I’ve been waiting for it for 30 years; there’s a difference,” Bird told the Hall H crowd. “I would have happily made it a long time ago, but you have to have someone pay for it.”
That someone is the deep-pocketed, awards-thirsty Netflix, whose animation division has scored two wins, Guillermo del Toro’s 2022 stop-motion Pinocchio and last year’s KPop Demon Hunters, and five additional nominations this decade. Bird screened the suspenseful first seven minutes of Ray Gunn, which underscored his characterization of the sci-fi laced detective movie as “Maltese Falcon meets Buck Rogers.”
While the film isn’t quite finished — Netflix hasn’t even released a trailer yet — some of the lucky gumshoes who caught early screenings tell Gold Derby they expect it to emerge as Woody and Buzz’s chief rival in the Best Animated Feature race. Ray Gunn definitely has the bona fides: Bird has assembled a murderer’s row of creatives, including alumni from The Iron Giant and Pixar, with a voice cast headlined by Sam Rockwell and Scarlett Johansson, and a score by Oscar winner Michael Giacchino, who popped in on the panel to give props to his longtime collaborator.
“Whenever Brad makes a movie, there’s a line of people that want to make it with him,” the composer said. “He is one of the best creative leaders that I know. Nobody I know can just get an entire room full of people to charge up a hill right behind him like Brad can.”
With a Dec. 18 release date, Ray Gunn will have an uphill climb to reach the heights of Toy Story 5. But Bird made it clear there’s no animosity between him and the Mouse House, noting that he’s happily penning the Incredibles 3 script for incoming director Pete Sohn who, funnily enough, gave him an assist on Ray Gunn. You might say they’ve got a friend in each other.
No festivals after another
One of the big narratives on the Croisette during this year’s Cannes was the absence of the major American studios from the world’s premier film festival. That storyline is continuing into the fall as the five remaining legacy studios — Disney, Paramount, Sony, Universal, and Warner Bros. — have declined to take any of their awards season titles on the road to Venice, Toronto, and New York. (Reminder that we’re talking about the main studio divisions; specialty label siblings like Searchlight will be touring select prestige pictures, including Wild Horse Nine and the aforementioned Behemoth!)
It’s a clear sign of the One Battle After Another effect; Warner Bros. skipped the festival circuit with its Paul Thomas Anderson picture — in fact, they held the first L.A. screenings during Toronto and stole the focus away from TIFF titles — and watched it dominate Oscar season on its road to a Best Picture victory. That success, coupled with high profile flops like Joker: Folie à Deux‘s disastrous Venice debut, seems to have convinced the majors that dodging festivals is no longer a major barrier to awards glory.
Of course, not all of the major studios have Best Picture contenders that they’re unleashing in the final months of 2026 anyway. Absent a third Wicked installment, Universal is largely content to ride Christopher Nolan’s summertime smash The Odyssey into the Oscar race. Meanwhile, Disney knows that Marvel’s Avengers: Doomsday and 20th Studios’s Whalefall are spectacles for audiences first and awards voters second. And Paramount just hopes that anyone shows up to see its Johnny Depp-starring Christmas Carol remake, Ebenezer — recently taking the movie at Comic-Con in the hopes of drumming up interest.
But there are some studio prestige pictures that, once upon a time, would have made festival stops part of their roll-outs. Paramount’s Heart of the Beast, for example, is a star-powered survival thriller built around Brad Pitt and a cute dog; back in 2017, the pre-Disney acquisition 20th Century Fox brought its similarly themed The Mountain Between Us to Toronto and had leads Kate Winslet and Idris Elba on hand to charm local audiences. That movie didn’t factor into the awards race, but TIFF did give the studio a convenient promotional platform ahead of Mountain‘s theatrical release.
Meanwhile, with Dune: Part Three looming as a potential Odyssey-slayer, it’s worth remembering that Warner Bros. brought the first installment of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi trilogy to both Venice and Toronto in 2021 to establish the franchise’s Oscar potential. The gambit paid off with a Best Picture nomination in that COVID-impacted year, and allowed the studio to go directly to theaters with the succeeding chapters with more confidence in repeating that Best Picture berth.
In a more obvious example of replicating the One Battle playbook, Warner Bros. is keeping its other big Oscar player, Digger, out of the festival spotlight ahead of the film’s Oct. 2 theatrical bow. But the dynamic duo of Tom Cruise and Alejandro González Iñárritu will almost certainly be stumping for the movie throughout September, potentially with another round of TIFF-interrupting screenings. With Cruise well-ensconced on our Best Actor leaderboard for what promises to be a transformative star turn, the studio isn’t feeling the urgency to rush Digger onto the world stage.
Best Actor
1.
2.
Ryan Gosling
Project Hail Mary
3.
4.
John Malkovich
Wild Horse Nine
5.
6.
John Turturro
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
7.
8.
9.
Robert Pattinson
Primetime
10.
It’s more surprising to see Sony sit out the festival circuit, given that both of its Oscar hopefuls hail from filmmakers who thrive in that environment. Taika Waititi was the toast of TIFF’s 2019 edition with Jojo Rabbit, which scored the coveted People’s Choice Award en route to six Oscar nods and a win for Best Adapted Screenplay. But the New Zealand filmmaker won’t be making the trek to Toronto for his latest film Klara and the Sun, despite its equally strong literary pedigree (the sci-fi drama is based on Kazuo Ishiguro’s bestseller) and an ensemble that includes Jenna Ortega and Amy Adams — stars that TIFF would have loved to have hosted on a red carpet.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the festival season, though, is the absence of The Social Reckoning from the Venice-Toronto-New York corridor. At one point, Aaron Sorkin’s follow-up to The Social Network — which served as the opening-night attraction of NYFF’s 2010 edition — seemed like a shoo-in for a Lido launch, but it appears that the trio of Jeremy Strong, Jeremy Allen White, and Mikey Madison won’t be booking gondola rides anytime soon.
While a Reckoning appearance at Telluride (which doesn’t reveal its screening roster ahead of time) or as an NYFF “secret screening” a la Marty Supreme is still possible, Sony instead appears to be charting a course directly towards the film’s Oct. 9 general release. Currently hovering just outside of the Top 10 contenders on our Best Picture leaderboard, the ultimate fate of Sorkin’s film may spell a larger reckoning for the relationship between Hollywood’s legacy studios and film festivals.
Best Picture
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
—Additional reporting by Jaclyn Ben-Porat and Marcus Errico
