Superhero fatigue has been a talking point all summer, but Sony and Marvel are betting that Peter Parker is the exception. Spider-Man: Brand New Day swings into 4,300 North American theaters this weekend, and early tracking suggests it could land among the five biggest domestic openings of all time.
Studio tracking from Sony has been conservative, projecting a domestic start just shy of $200 million. Independent trackers are more optimistic, with estimates climbing as high as $250 million-300 million.
If the film lands anywhere near the top of that range, it would surpass Deadpool & Wolverine‘s $211.4 million July-opening record and put it in range of the all-time top five: Avengers: Endgame ($357.1 million), Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260.1 million), Avengers: Infinity War ($257.7 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247.97 million) and Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220 million).
Worldwide, estimates point to a debut in the $425 million-465 million range, which would rank as Sony’s second-biggest global opening ever, trailing only No Way Home‘s $600.5 million start in 2021.
Reviews have been strong out of the gate, with Brand New Day sitting around 91 percent certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Destin Daniel Cretton, taking over directing duties from Jon Watts, sends Tom Holland‘s Peter Parker back into the world four years after No Way Home‘s reality-erasing finale, now fighting to protect New York without anyone remembering who he is. Zendaya, Mark Ruffalo, Sadie Sink, and Jon Bernthal also star.
Brand New Day won’t have the run of premium large-format screens that most Marvel tentpoles enjoy. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey continues to dominate Imax for a third straight weekend, and Universal’s epic isn’t fading quietly. After a modest second-weekend decline, The Odyssey is expected to add another $45 million-55 million domestically, pushing it past Oppenheimer‘s $330 million domestic total.
Behind Brand New Day and The Odyssey, the rest of the top five is expected to be all holdovers. Toy Story 5 should settle into third as Moana and Minions & Monsters round out the top tier.
A few smaller titles are opening quietly alongside the Marvel juggernaut this weekend, with none expected to factor into the top five. Gregg Araki’s I Want Your Sex, starring Olivia Wilde and Cooper Hoffman, opens via Magnolia Pictures, while John Travolta’s heist sequel The Gentleman Thief arrives in limited release through Vertical.
New releases
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Director: Matt Johnson
Distributor: Sony Pictures
A forgotten Peter Parker lives alone as a full-time Spider-Man until mounting pressure triggers a dangerous change and a powerful new enemy emerges. The Marvel adventure has a running time of two hours, 25 minutes, and is rated PG-13. Brand New Day is certified “fresh” with a 91% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 70%.
I Want Your Sex
Director: Gregg Araki
Distributor: Magnolia Pictures
Elliot lands a job for Erika Tracy as her sexual muse. The raunchy comedy has a running time of one hour, 30 minutes, and is rated R. I Want Your Sex is certified “fresh” with an 89% score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 66%.
The Gentleman Thief
Director: Randall Emmett
Distributor: Vertical Entertainment
A retired master thief must protect his impulsive brother from disaster when a $100M yacht heist spirals into a dangerous web of deception. Old foes emerge as the stakes rise, forcing him to use every trick he knows to stay alive. The action flick has a running time of one hour, 37 minutes, and is not rated. At the time of this writing, The Gentleman Thief did not have enough reviews for a consensus score on Rotten Tomatoes or Metacritic.
Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the July 31-Aug. 2 weekend:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day — $275 million
2. The Odyssey — $50 million
3. Toy Story 5 — $6 million
4. Moana — $5.5 million
5. Minions & Monsters — $5 million
Check back Sunday for actuals and how they stacked up against our predictions.
2026 box-office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million
