Every other studio got the memo: don’t mess with Christopher Nolan. Universal’s The Odyssey sails into theaters this weekend as the only major new release, giving Nolan’s Oppenheimer follow-up the marketplace all to itself. That’s a gift Nolan hasn’t gotten since well before “Barbenheimer” turned his last movie into a cultural event, and it sets up a simple question heading into the weekend: just how big does this get?
Industry tracking has bounced around over the past few weeks — swinging as high as $120 million domestic at one point — but has settled into a $85 million to $105 million range for the opening weekend, with another $110 million or so expected internationally for a global bow well past $200 million. Even at the low end, that tops Nolan’s $82.4 million Oppenheimer debut and makes The Odyssey his biggest domestic opening since 2012’s The Dark Knight Rises ($160 million). And with zero competition this weekend, it’s a lock for No. 1.
A few things are driving the demand. Reviews are stellar — the embargo lifted Wednesday to a 96% “Certified Fresh” score on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88% “universal acclaim” on Metacritic — and it’s already being talked up as an early Oscar front-runner in the Oppenheimer mold. It’s also the first movie ever shot entirely on Imax cameras, and true fans have been snapping up 70mm tickets since they first went on sale a year ago. That premium-format frenzy is a blessing and a bit of a wild card for forecasters: a ton of demand is locked into pricier Imax and large-format showtimes, and it’s still an open question how many regular moviegoers turn out for standard screenings this weekend versus waiting for better seats and showtimes down the line.
The other wrinkle is the World Cup. The Spain-Argentina final set for Sunday could keep soccer fans out of movie theaters as they watch the big game. Whatever the opening turns out to be, Nolan movies tend to have real legs — Oppenheimer quadrupled its debut to a $330 million domestic final.
Rounding out the top five
Everyone else is just fighting for the scraps this weekend. Disney’s Moana should slide hard in weekend two now that a real blockbuster is in town, likely landing somewhere in the high teens. Universal’s Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 have been trading paint for weeks, and this could finally be the frame where the Pixar sequel pulls back ahead. Look for Warner Bros.’ Evil Dead Burn to round out the top five in its second week as it tries to hold off Angel Studios’ Young Washington.
Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the July 17-19 weekend:
1. The Odyssey — $100 million
2. Moana — $19 million
3. Toy Story 5 — $11 million
4. Minions & Monsters — $10 million
5. Evil Dead Burn — $5 million
Check back Sunday for actuals and how they stacked up against our predictions.
2026 box-office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million
