Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change in response to buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Jaafar Jackson as Michael Jackson in Michael. Photo Credit: Glen Wilson/Lionsgate
Glen Wilson/Lionsgate
Best Picture Predictions Commentary (Updated: June 28, 2026): Movie studios have plenty to juggle this awards season. The major studios and independents alike will be steering multiple Oscar hopefuls over the next several months.
Warner Bros. will be guiding Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Three,” the final installment of his epic saga, while lavishing attention on Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Tom Cruise vehicle, “Digger.”
Searchlight has the talents of Martin McDonagh with “Wild Horse Nine” and its own living legend in John Malkovich. The studio is also pairing Pedro Pascal with Tony Gilroy on the mysterious “Behemoth!”
Netflix already picked up the Cannes winner “La Bola Negra,” which will be an across-the-board player, including in the international feature race. The streaming giant also has the still-untitled “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” sequel from David Fincher, “Gentle Monster” with Léa Seydoux, which it acquired at Cannes, Peter Berg’s war film “The Mosquito Bowl” and Fernando Meirelles’ latest, “Here Comes the Flood,” with Denzel Washington.
Neon will be juggling Palme d’Or winner “Fjord,” with Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve, along with Arie and Chuko Esiri’s “Clarissa,” a reimagining of “Mrs. Dalloway,” and the Cannes hit “All of a Sudden” from Ryusuke Hamaguchi.
A24 already has a contender in Olivia Wilde’s Sundance hit “The Invite,” and still to come are Jesse Eisenberg’s next directorial venture, “The Debut,” Lance Oppenheim’s “Primetime,” with a buzzy turn from Robert Pattinson, and another Cannes hit, “Club Kid,” from Jordan Firstman.
Amazon MGM Studios looks to have its strongest slate in a while with the box office hit “Project Hail Mary,” starring Ryan Gosling, and more on the way: “I Play Rocky” from Peter Farrelly, “Madden” from David O. Russell and “Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother” from Bassam Tariq.
Universal Pictures is likely to mount a campaign for Steven Spielberg’s “Disclosure Day,” but the real buzz surrounds Christopher Nolan’s anticipated “The Odyssey,” his first film since winning best picture and director for “Oppenheimer.”
Sony Pictures could be back in the race with Aaron Sorkin’s “The Social Reckoning,” which will be as timely as ever with Jeremy Strong playing Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
Lionsgate is back as well, with the highest-grossing biopic of all time, “Michael,” and a crowd-pleaser in “Power Ballad.”
Animation is hoping for major recognition, with Laika’s “Wildwood” eyeing a big push across all categories, alongside Pixar’s box office smash “Toy Story 5” and DreamWorks Animation’s gorgeous-looking “Forgotten Island.”
Focus Features will look to turn Curry Barker’s horror film “Obsession” into a contender (especially for actress Inde Navarette), while spotlighting its upcoming remake of “Sense and Sensibility” and the next stylized horror entry from Robert Eggers, “Werwulf.”
Apple has the new film from Sian Heder, who directed the 2021 best picture winner “CODA.” That film, “Being Heumann,” will compete alongside another biopic, “Tenzing.”
And there are plenty more films to talk about and consider over the next few months.
The list of predictions in all categories can be found here.
The Governors Awards, which will hand out honorary Oscars to Glenn Close and Ridley Scott, will take place Sunday, Nov. 15. Preliminary voting for the Oscars shortlist in 12 categories runs Dec. 7-11, with the shortlist announcement to follow Tuesday, Dec. 15. Following the close of the eligibility period on Dec. 31, 2026, nominations voting will run Jan. 11-15, 2027. The official Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2027. The 99th Oscars will take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027, and will be hosted by Conan O’Brien. The ceremony airs live at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and in more than 200 territories worldwide from the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood.
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