We’re about two weeks out from Liza Colón-Zayas and Jeff Hiller announcing the Emmy nominations on the morning of July 8. Much has changed in the Gold Derby odds over the past several months, with some shows coming out of nowhere to now be viewed as near-locks and others presumptive sure-things nose-diving after disappointing word of mouth.
Here is what’s up and what’s down in our Emmy nomination predictions.
UP: WIDOW’S BAY
There’s no doubt about it: Widow’s is peaking at the perfect time. The Apple TV horror comedy about a cursed New England island finished its first season on June 17, during the midst of nominations-round Emmy voting. (Only the first seven episodes are eligible at the Emmys; the final three aired after the May 31 cut-off date.)
In addition to a likely series bid for Best Comedy Series, lead actor Matthew Rhys and supporting actress Kate O’Flynn are now predicted to receive nominations, per our odds — more on their chances below. But don’t count out stand-outs like Kevin Carroll, Jeff Hiller, Stephen Root, K Callan, Dale Dickey, Hamish Linklater, and Betty Gilpin, many of whom have been working for years and have lots of friends within the Television Academy’s Acting Branch.
DOWN: EUPHORIA
Much has been made about Euphoria‘s drop in critical support for its third and final season, with its 44% score on Rotten Tomatoes down significantly from Season 1 (80%) and Season 2 (78%). While that sentiment is negatively affecting the chances of supporting contenders like Sydney Sweeney and Jacob Elordi, three standouts are expected to still receive Emmy nominations: Zendaya (first place at 79%) in Best Drama Actress, and Eric Dane (first place at 76%) and Colman Domingo (fifth place at 58%) in Best Drama Guest Actor.
The HBO coming-of-age drama is no longer in the top eight for Best Drama Series, and is holding onto 10th place with a 15% shot of scoring a bid. To date, Euphoria has been an Emmy favorite, winning nine trophies from 25 nominations, including two for Zendaya and one for Domingo. The four-year gap between seasons, plus the mixed reception for its Western-style format, could prove to be as fatal as a snake bite for Season 3.
UP: APPLE TV COMEDIES
Last year, Apple TV had two comedies in the series lineup — winner The Studio and Shrinking — and now it’s expected to top its own personal record with three. The third season of Shrinking (fourth place at 72%), the first season of Margo’s Got Money Troubles (fifth place at 68%), and the first season of Widow’s Bay (eighth place at 49%) are all among the top eight forecasted nominees for Best Comedy Series.
In addition to a series bid, Shrinking is on track to supersize its acting nominations, with eight cast members in contention: Jason Segel (second place at 76%) in Best Comedy Actor; Jessica Williams (third place at 73%) in Best Comedy Supporting Actress; Harrison Ford (first place at 79%) and Michael Urie (third place at 70%) in Best Comedy Supporting Actor; Candice Bergen (fourth place at 63%) in Best Comedy Guest Actress; and Michael J. Fox (second place at 43%), Brett Goldstein (fourth place at 35%), and Jeff Daniels (fifth place at 34%) in Best Comedy Guest Actor.
Margo’s Got Money Troubles is expected to rake in a trio of nods for its core stars: Elle Fanning (third place at 72%) in Best Comedy Actress; Michelle Pfeiffer (fourth place at 73%) in Best Comedy Supporting Actress; and Nick Offerman (fourth place at 70%) in Best Comedy Supporting Actor.
Two performers are zombie-walking toward nominations for the aforementioned Widow’s Bay: Matthew Rhys (fifth place at 51%) in Best Comedy Actor, and Kate O’Flynn (seventh place at 35%) in Best Comedy Supporting Actress. More cast members could end up benefiting as the show continues to rise in our odds.
DOWN: PRIME VIDEO SERIES
Fallout, The Boys, and Jury Duty have all made it into the top series races in the past for Prime Video, but none is expected to contend this year, per the Gold Derby data.
Season 2 of Fallout is in 22nd place for a Best Drama Series bid after scoring 16 nominations in 2024 and winning for Best Music Supervision. Walton Goggins (fifth place at 35%) is still expected to be recognized in Best Drama Actor, though he’s on the bubble; Ella Purnell (18th place at 1%) is much further down the Best Drama Actress lineup.
The Boys, which recently ended with Season 5, is coming off three Emmy wins last year for Best Stunt Coordination, Best Stunt Performance, and Best Music & Lyrics. It’s been up for Best Drama Series once, for Season 2, but is now in 18th place for a bookend bid for its final hurrah. Lead actor Antony Starr (10th place at 6%) and guest star Giancarlo Esposito (eighth place at 24%) have the best chances among performers.
Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat serves as the second installment of the feel-good hidden camera program. Season 1 scooped up four bids in 2023 including Best Comedy Series and Best Comedy Supporting Actor for James Marsden. Magic is not expected to happen again, as the show is down in 11th place (3%) and none of the new cast members have the movie star stature of Marsden.
UP: HALF MAN
The last time Richard Gadd had a show up for Emmy consideration, Baby Reindeer (2024), lightning struck and he won three trophies: Best Limited Series, Best Limited/Movie Actor, and Best Limited/Movie Writing. For Half Man, the Scottish multi-hyphenate is eligible once again in the producing, acting, and writing categories, but he’s entered in the supporting race this time around, allowing his co-star Jamie Bell to compete for lead-acting recognition. Following the well-reviewed finale, Half Man ascended to the highest positions yet in our odds for Best Limited Series (third place at 73%), Best Limited/Movie Actor (third place at 71%), and Best Limited/Movie Supporting Actor (second place at 75%).
DOWN: NOBODY WANTS THIS
Netflix’s rom-com earned just three nominations last year in its inaugural run, but they were all big ones: Best Comedy Series, Best Comedy Actress for Kristen Bell, and Best Comedy Actor for Adam Brody. Sometimes shows explode in their second seasons, but that may not be the case for Nobody Wants This. The new episodes dipped in both water-cooler buzz and critical reception (from Season 1’s 95% to Season 2’s 79% at Rotten Tomatoes), and it has now fallen out of Gold Derby’s predicted nominees in the top three comedy categories. The good news? Season 2 recently topped all comedies at the Critics Choice Awards with five nominations. The bad news? It lost them all.
Agree or disagree with the odds? Be sure to make your own picks and sound off in our TV forums with your hot takes.
