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Home»Awards & Events»Toy Story 5: Instant Oscar odds predictions
Awards & Events

Toy Story 5: Instant Oscar odds predictions

Williams MBy Williams MJune 18, 2026No Comments5 Mins Read
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Seven years after Woody waved goodbye to Buzz, Jessie, and the rest of the gang at the end of Toy Story 4, Pixar‘s most beloved franchise is back, and so far it’s sticking the landing. Toy Story 5 held its world premiere in Los Angeles on June 9, and once the review embargo lifted on June 16, the film settled in at a “certified rresh” 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, with the site’s consensus crediting the film for proving that old toys can still learn new tricks. That mark technically makes it the lowest-rated entry in the series, trailing the 97 to 100 percent scores racked up by its four predecessors, but in the context of a franchise that’s never delivered a true misstep, “lowest-rated” still means acclaimed.

Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary

Directed by Andrew Stanton — the Pixar mainstay behind Finding Nemo and WALL-E, making his first trip behind the camera for a Toy Story film — and co-directed by Kenna Harris, the sequel pivots the franchise’s emotional center away from Woody and Buzz and toward Joan Cusack’s Jessie, as the toys find their hold on Bonnie’s attention challenged by Lilypad, a frog-shaped tablet voiced by Greta Lee.

Critics who caught the film this week singled out Jessie’s arc as the unexpected heart of the movie, with several outlets noting the screenplay’s nuanced handling of kids and screen time rather than a simple anti-tech lecture. In addition to Tim Allen and Tom Hanks returning as Buzz and Woody, respectively, the ensemble also folds in Conan O’Brien, Bad Bunny, and Keanu Reeves, with Randy Newman returning to score his fifth Toy Story feature.

Forky (center) is back in 'Toy Story 5'
The gang reunites in ‘Toy Story 5’Disney/Pixar

Best Animated Feature

This is the obvious lane, and it’s a crowded one. Pixar already has skin in this game with Hoppers, its March release about a girl who “hops” her consciousness into a robotic beaver, which landed a 94 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and grossed over $370 million worldwide. That sets up a scenario the studio has flirted with before, where two Pixar films compete for attention in the same Oscars cycle.

The Toy Story track record makes the case on its own — though it took a while to get the chance to prove it. Best Animated Feature didn’t exist as a category until 2001, so neither Toy Story (1995) nor Toy Story 2 (1999) were even eligible. The first real shot came with Toy Story 3, and the franchise made it count: a win in 2011, plus a rare Best Picture nomination on top of it. Toy Story 4 won again in 2020. That’s a perfect record every time the category has actually been in play, and no other franchise can match that kind of consistency. Still, Toy Story 5 enters this year’s conversation as a known commodity — a franchise the Academy has already crowned twice. Whether that works for or against it actually winning, a nomination at least seems probable.

Best Original Song

Taylor Swift made waves when she released the film’s Best Original Song contender “I Knew It, I Knew You” — and the Toy Story franchise has an extraordinary record in that category. Newman received nominations for “You’ve Got a Friend in Me” from the original film, “When She Loved Me” from Toy Story 2, and “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4. Toy Story 3 went one better: Newman won for “We Belong Together.” Four films, four nominations, one win.

Swift, by contrast, has never been nominated for an Oscar despite four nominations at the Golden Globes for Best Original Song: “Safe & Sound” from The Hunger Games (which did win a Grammy for Best Song Written for Visual Media), “Sweeter Than Fiction” from One Chance, “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats, and “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, which made the Oscar shortlist but didn’t convert into a nomination.

A song in a Toy Story film — now a certified No. 1 hit with country, pop, and adult contemporary crossover — may be the strongest shot she’s had yet. History is on her side. Newman is the one who earned those four prior bids, so the jury is still out on whether the franchise’s Oscar magic transfers.

The Rest of the Field

Beyond those two categories, Toy Story 5 has a tougher road, but it’s not walking into unfamiliar territory. Newman picked up a Best Original Score nomination for the first Toy Story back in 1995, distinct from his “You’ve Got a Friend in Me” song nod, so there’s precedent for his Toy Story 5 score to find its own lane in that category.

Screenplay is trickier. The original film was nominated for Best Original Screenplay, but sequels built on previously established characters get classified as adapted rather than original — which is exactly why Toy Story 3 ended up in the Best Adapted Screenplay race instead. If Toy Story 5‘s script from Stanton and Harris earns a mention, that’s the category it’ll land in. It’s likely a long shot, but a 30-year-old franchise wrapping up a beloved character’s arc is the kind of sentimental story the branch sometimes rewards.

Sound is the longer shot. Toy Story 3 picked up a nomination there on its way to its Best Picture bid, but Toy Story 4 didn’t make noise anywhere outside Best Animated Feature and Best Song — and that’s probably the more realistic comp for how far Toy Story 5 will go in 2027.

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