With only days to go until the 2026 Tony Awards, more than 800 users and 16 Tony Awards experts have officially made their winner predictions at Gold Derby.
The radically reimagined Cats: The Jellicle Ball will be crowned ultimate victor of the night with six trophies, while the innovative production of Death of a Salesman will lead all plays and play revivals with five. Other productions that will receive numerous awards include Best Musical frontrunners Schmigadoon! and The Lost Boys, musical revival Ragtime, and the modernized thriller Oedipus.
Although a handful of the biggest categories lack a clear frontrunner heading into Sunday’s ceremony, the absolute closest contest will be Best Musical Revival. Cats leads Ragtime in our combined odds at the moment, but only by 12 percentage points. Ragtime looks to have more support in the acting races, where it’s slated to win the two lead races for Joshua Henry and Caissie Levy, but Cats will likely trounce it in direction and design.
Before the 2026 Tony winners are announced on Sunday on CBS and Paramount+, review our official odds below — which are derived from predictions by our experts, editors, and users — in all 26 categories. Our predicted winners are denoted in gold. Agree or disagree with these odds? There’s still time to make your predictions at Gold Derby.
MUSICALS
BEST MUSICAL
Schmigadoon! – 76.47%
The Lost Boys – 15.76%
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 7.14%
Titaníque – 0.63%
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 55.09%
Ragtime – 43.36%
The Rocky Horror Show – 1.55%
BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
Caissie Levy, Ragtime – 89.73%
Marla Mindelle, Titaníque – 7.37%
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 1.79%
Sara Chase, Schmigadoon! – 0.67%
Stephanie Hsu, The Rocky Horror Show – 0.45%
BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL)
Joshua Henry, Ragtime – 94.99%
Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show – 3.64%
Nicholas Christopher, Chess – 0.68%
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 0.46%
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime – 0.23%
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys – 78.95%
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime – 15.35%
Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon! – 5.04%
Hannah Cruz, Chess – 0.44%
Rachel Dratch, The Rocky Horror Show – 0.22%
BEST FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL)
André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 64.66%
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime – 21.12%
Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys – 8.84%
Layton Williams, Titaníque – 5.39%
Bryce Pinkham, Chess – 0.00%
BEST DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 77.39%
Lear deBessonet, Ragtime – 17.48%
Michael Arden, The Lost Boys – 3.50%
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon! – 1.40%
Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 0.23%
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 73.59%
Schmigadoon! – 14.43%
The Lost Boys – 11.98%
Death of a Salesman – 0.00%
Joe Turner’s Come and Gone – 0.00%
BEST MUSICAL BOOK
Schmigadoon! – 79.46%
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 10.64%
Titaníque – 8.17%
The Lost Boys – 1.73%
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Schmigadoon! – 76.38%
Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 17.84%
The Lost Boys – 3.52%
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 1.51%
Chess – 0.75%
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 88.19%
Schmigadoon! – 9.45%
Ragtime – 1.57%
The Rocky Horror Show – 0.52%
The Lost Boys – 0.26%
BEST SCENIC DESIGN (MUSICAL)
The Lost Boys – 96.02%
Schmigadoon! – 2.65%
Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 0.80%
The Rocky Horror Show – 0.27%
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) – 0.27%
BEST COSTUME DESIGN (MUSICAL)
Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 91.03%
Ragtime – 4.08%
Schmigadoon! – 3.26%
The Lost Boys – 1.63%
The Rocky Horror Show – 0.00%
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN (MUSICAL)
The Lost Boys – 96.17%
Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 1.64%
Ragtime – 1.64%
The Rocky Horror Show – 0.27%
Schmigadoon! – 0.27%
Chess – 0.00%
BEST SOUND DESIGN (MUSICAL)
Cats: The Jellicle Ball – 54.99%
The Lost Boys – 41.78%
Ragtime – 2.70%
Schmigadoon! – 0.54%
The Rocky Horror Show – 0.00%
PLAYS
BEST PLAY
Liberation – 94.74%
Giant – 2.97%
The Balusters – 1.83%
Little Bear Ridge Road – 0.46%
BEST PLAY REVIVAL
Death of a Salesman – 93.88%
Oedipus – 4.08%
Every Brilliant Thing – 1.13%
Becky Shaw – 0.45%
Fallen Angels – 0.23%
BEST ACTRESS (PLAY)
Lesley Manville, Oedipus – 89.24%
Carrie Coon, Bug – 4.26%
Susannah Flood, Liberation – 3.81%
Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels – 2.24%
Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels – 0.45%
BEST ACTOR (PLAY)
John Lithgow, Giant – 69.60%
Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman – 27.53%
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing – 2.42%
Will Harrison, Punch – 0.22%
Mark Strong, Oedipus – 0.22%
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY)
Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman – 86.07%
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime – 11.64%
Betsy Aidem, Liberation – 1.60%
Marylouise Burke, The Balusters – 0.46%
Aya Cash, Giant – 0.23%
BEST FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY)
Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman – 53.62%
Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw – 36.65%
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone – 8.14%
Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime – 0.68%
Richard Thomas, The Balusters – 0.68%
Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot – 0.23%
BEST DIRECTOR (PLAY)
Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman – 80.98%
Whitney White, Liberation – 17.32%
Robert Icke, Oedipus – 1.46%
Nicholas Hytner, Giant – 0.24%
Kenny Leon, The Balusters – 0.00%
BEST SCENIC DESIGN (PLAY)
Oedipus – 61.79%
Death of a Salesman – 24.62%
Dog Day Afternoon – 10.51%
Fallen Angels – 2.31%
Bug – 0.77%
BEST COSTUME DESIGN (PLAY)
Fallen Angels – 88.33%
Liberation – 8.22%
Joe Turner’s Come and Gone – 2.92%
Dog Day Afternoon – 0.27%
The Balusters – 0.27%
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN (PLAY)
Death of a Salesman – 93.42%
Oedipus – 3.84%
Bug – 1.37%
Joe Turner’s Come and Gone – 0.55%
The Fear of 13 – 0.55%
Dog Day Afternoon – 0.27%
BEST SOUND DESIGN (PLAY)
Oedipus – 85.60%
Death of a Salesman – 12.19%
Joe Turner’s Come and Gone – 1.39%
Bug – 0.83%
The Fear of 13 – 0.00%
