Cannes Film Festival Hands Out Prizes But What Does It Mean For Oscar?

With the exception of a shared Best Director win (with La Bola Negra) for Fatherland, as well as a Best Actress win for the two stars of All Of A Sudden, the jury of the 79th Cannes Film Festival decided that there was not much to reward in the fest’s first six days. Instead, the second career Palme d’Or for Romanian director Cristian Mungiu and his superb Fjord; the Grand Prix for Russian dissident Andrei Zviaguintsev’s Minotaur; the Jury Prize for Bulgaria’s The Dreamed Adventure (the only female director with a win in the main competition this year); plus the shared Best Actor win for Coward, that shared Best Director win for La Bola Negra; and Screenplay victory for A Man Of His Time, the results either say the Park Chan-Wook-led jury has a short memory over the course of this 11-day festival of festivals, or that Thierry Fremaux simply saved the best for last. Six of the winners in the seven major categories premiered in the last five days of this Cannes.

Critics who were complaining early on this was a “bad Cannes” or disappointing lineup, simply had to be patient, at least according to this jury. Going in, there was much talk about this finally being American director James Gray’s year for a triumph with his terrific noir-ish thriller, Paper Tiger, one of only two American-directed films to make the 22-film competition. He has now been here in competition six times, and for the sixth time, goes home empty, nothing. What a shame, but I don’t think the lack of a prize will hurt his film’s awards chances come fall when it is released by Neon, which incredibly extended its Palme d’Or winning streak to seven with Fjord, impressive even if the distributor had a record six films contending in this contest. From what I heard, Paper Tiger was not even included in initial announcement in April because its producers were waiting to hear if Netflix was acquiring it, and in that case, the plan I am told was to take it to Venice possibly, and the fall festivals. No doubt you will be seeing Gray and his film at Telluride, and certainly New York among others. This setback will have no consequence for its awards prospects going forward. It is too good to ignore. So, for that matter, is the other American director ignored by the jury, Ira Sachs, and his moving A Man In Love, which has awards potential as well, particularly for Rami Malek in the Best Actor race.

So, let’s look at the films that actually took a prize tonight. There is much to admire, and I think Cannes may see some success on the awards season circuit leading to Oscar night, just not as much as the last two years brought with films like Anora, Emilia Perez and The Substance coming out of the 77th Cannes, and movies like Sirat, Secret Agent, It Was Just An Accident and Sentimental Value making such a splash after they scored big prizes at last year’s 78th Cannes. We got a little spoiled with expectations, even in a year the studios basically ignored, and the American presence was light.

This time around, films with the best shot at some Oscar love are indeed the Palme d’Or winner, Fjord, which is the first English language film for Mungiu, although there is some Romanian, Norwegian and Swedish dialogue as well. Its international cast, top-lined by Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve, will help its profile. When I saw it Monday, I immediately thought this masterful film, which calls for empathy in a very divided world, might be the one to beat for the Palme d’Or, and it only slipped down to Grand Prix in my lousy predictions when I saw Spain’s La Bola Negra at the final screening of this year’s lineup, that I caught Thursday afternoon. That film seemed instantly the kind that might ignite this festival, and it did, while also being one that can travel internationally. It is no surprise that Netflix wanted it and won a bidding war to get it. It has enormous Academy potential, and in a very good year for Spain, looks to have the best bet to get submitted for International Film, and an excellent chance in other categories as well.

Of the other winners, considering the Oscars recognized his movie, Cold War, with nominations, I have no doubt Paweł Pawlikowski could be in the mix for his latest black-and-white drama set in post-war Germany. I don’t see any real path forward in any significant way for Hamaguchi Ryusake’s near 3-and-1/2-hour All Of A Sudden, which won its two actresses the top female acting award. They were excellent and should be thrilled with this prize as the film, far too preachy and long, doesn’t have much of a prayer Oscar-wise, no matter what Neon tries to do with it. Despite some aspects to recommend, it is a largely academic exercise that requires more patience than most Oscar voters have, I think. Critics, especially admirers of “slow cinema” liked it, but it stops there. As for the similarly shared Best Actor award to young Coward stars, Emmanuel Maccia and Valentin Campagne, the latter could be a Supporting Actor contender on the circuit for what I noted in my review was a “sensational” performance, that is if Mubi, which just bought the beautiful Lukas Dhont film, can get it widely seen by those who matter.

Grand Prize winner Minotaur, a remake of Claude Chabrol’s Le Femme Infidele and Adrian Lyne’s remake of that, Unfaithful, but with a flavoring of life in Putin’s Russia, is ripe for recognition in the International Film race, depending on which country submits it. The new rule that would have resulted in instant entry for a Palme d’Or winner won’t apply this year since Fjord‘s main language is English.

As usual, Cannes has no equal in setting the table for the Oscar International Film race, and there were many fine films seen for the first time that will be front runners for submission by their individual countries. You can count Nagi Notes, Sheep In the Box, Moulin, Hope, Coward, Gentle Monster, The Dreamed Adventure and more, in addition to the aforementioned La Bola Negra, Minotaur and Fatherland, among films that are likely to be heard from in this regard, and this may be a partial list.

The Beloved‘s Javier Bardem is a demanding film director, and Gentle Monster‘s Lea Seydoux will be in the running for acting recognition once the awards season kicks into gear. I thought they would win in Cannes. They didn’t. Netflix’s purchase of Gentle Monster means Seydoux will get a significant push, as might Penelope Cruz in supporting for her wickedly fine, if brief musical appearance in La Bola Negra. The same might be said for Glenn Close’s cameo in the latter, done in part Spanish, but probably too small to make the cut. I also expect Scarlett Johansson, Adam Driver and Miles Teller to move forward for their excellent turns in Paper Tiger.

From the secondary competition Un Certain Regard, look for a lot of awards talk and a big campaign by A24 for Jordan Firstman’s breakthough and wonderfully engaging Club Kid, perhaps the biggest story of this year’s Cannes, and a crowd pleaser that will go far on the fall circuit, putting Firstman in a position where we will be seeing a lot of him come September and beyond. It was completely ignored by Certain Regard and Camera d’Or juries, but what do you expect? Whether the movie is too light to become a truly serious contender remains to be seen, but it delivers.

As for animated feature contenders, many have come from Cannes exposure in recent years, and this year is no exception. We may well hear a lot more Oscar talk for the likes of Critics Week opener In Waves, which Netflix bought, the out-of-competition Tangles and Directors Fortnight’s well-reviewed Viva Carmen, among others that I will have more to say about come Annecy in June.

Finally, I just wish the Documentary branch would recognize some outstanding docs that fall under the show business label but are so deserving. Every year, these films get overlooked for nominations, and even shortlists. This year, two I caught are very fine: Dernsie, about the life of Bruce Dern, a really terrific film about a long distance runner in both acting and in life; and Maverick: The Epic Adventures Of David Lean, which is an insightful and fascinating look at the life of the filmmaking legend.

Cannes as always is a bit of a fever dream, and while there is argument about the quality of this year vs others, I can say there was enough on display in this merry month of May to give me hope that cinema is alive and still well. Vive le Cinema. Vive le Cannes. There is nothing like it.