Jason Bateman is on the rise in not just one, but two Emmy categories.
Per this week’s Gold Derby prediction data, the actor is up 4% in lead for Netflix’s noir thriller Black Rabbit, and up 11% in supporting for HBO’s dark comedy DTF St. Louis. He is also Emmy-eligible as a director for Black Rabbit and as a producer for both limited series, so he could receive a combined five nominations for these two projects alone.
Bateman won his first Emmy Award in 2019 for directing an episode of Ozark, and he has 13 additional nominations to his name, including for his acting roles in Arrested Development, Ozark, and The Outsider.
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For Black Rabbit, Bateman is just outside the projected Best Movie/Limited Actor lineup with a 70% chance of receiving a nomination. He plays Vince Friedken, the older brother of Jake (Jude Law) and the co-founder of the titular New York City hotspot.
Also competing in this race are category front-runners Oscar Isaac (Beef) at 97%, Matthew Rhys (The Beast in Me) at 96%, Richard Gadd (Half Man) at 91%, Paul Anthony Kelly (Love Story) at 84%, and Charlie Hunnam (Monster: The Ed Gein Story) at 81%.
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For DTF St. Louis, where Bateman is competing in Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor, he is in seventh place with a 58% shot at a bid. His character, weatherman Clark Forrest, becomes involved in a deadly love triangle with Carol (Linda Cardellini) and Floyd (David Harbour).
The six featured players ahead of Bateman are Charles Melton (Beef) at 97%, Jamie Bell (Half Man) at 94%, Alessandro Nivola (Love Story) at 88%, Jonathan Banks (The Beast in Me) at 87%, Troy Kotsur (Black Rabbit) at 77%, and Jake Lacy (All Her Fault) at 61%.
Actors with double Emmy nominations frequently win at least one of them, due in part because voters get to see their full range on display in vastly different performances. That’s great news for Bateman this year. Examples from the past decade include Ann Dowd in 2017 (won for The Handmaid’s Tale, lost for The Leftovers); Riz Ahmed in 2017 (won for The Night Of, lost for Girls); Julia Garner in 2022 (won for Ozark, lost for Inventing Anna); and Julianne Nicholson in 2025 (won for Hacks, lost for Paradise).
On the other side of the argument, there are also instances where performers with multiple bids lose them all, including Laurie Metcalf in 2016 (Getting On, The Big Bang Theory, and Horace and Pete); Pedro Pascal in 2023 (The Last of Us, Saturday Night Live, and Patagonia); and the late Catherine O’Hara just last year (The Studio and The Last of Us).
The 2026 Emmys nominations will be announced July 8.
