Shortly after the nominations were unveiled for the 2026 Tony Awards, hundreds of Gold Derby users logged their early predictions about what productions, performers, and creatives would go on to win. With mere weeks in between nominations and the June 7 ceremony at Radio City Music Hall, the Tony race moves quickly. That means that our users’ instant assessment of the surprises and stats from yesterday’s nominations announcement can often lead us to eventual Tony winners.
Gold Derby’s Tony odds are based on the combined forecasts of hundreds of people, including experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the Tony predictions by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in the theater forums.
BEST MUSICAL
- Schmigadoon! — 44.5%
- Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) — 36.2%
- The Lost Boys — 18.4%
- Titanique — 1%
Throughout the pre-nominations phase of the Tony race, our odds have been evenly split over which of the four front-runners would claim Best Musical. That lack of consensus remains even after the nominations announcement. Titanique earned just four nominations so it has fallen to last place. But Schmigadoon!, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), and The Lost Boys still appear to be within striking distance of snatching the award. All three musicals are nominated for directing, choreography, score, book, acting, and design. The surprise eligibility of the score for Schmigadoon! has likely given the charming Broadway love letter a slight edge in what remains a tight race.
BEST PLAY
- Liberation — 93%
- Giant — 4.2%
- The Balusters — 1.9%
- Little Bear Ridge Road — 1%
Liberation has immediately secured an overwhelming lead in the Best Play race. The show closed back in February, but that hasn’t stopped Bess Wohl’s acclaimed examination of the feminist movement in the 1970s from staying at the forefront of awards season, especially after the playwright picked up the Pulitzer Prize for Drama. Winning that coveted award helped Purpose vault over Oh, Mary! in this same category last season. Liberation‘s closest competitors are Giant by Mark Rosenblatt and The Balusters by David Lindsey-Abaire, both of which scored two acting nominations each and are also recognized for their directors. For now though, they are a distant second and third place.
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
- Cats: The Jellicle Ball — 62.5%
- Ragtime — 34.7%
- The Rocky Horror Show — 2.8%
Our early odds continue to forecast a close race between Cats: The Jellicle Ball and Ragtime, two of the greatest critical successes of the season. But our earliest odds indicate that the vogueing felines are slinking slightly ahead in the competition. Ragtime earned a staggering 11 nominations, including an impressive five acting bids. That’s more than the nine nominations for Cats, which has just one acting nominee. But our odds indicate that The Jellicle Ball is leading the charge for Director of a Musical and Choreography, which is likely tipping the scales in its favor.
BEST PLAY REVIVAL
- Death of a Salesman — 82.6%
- Oedipus — 15.5%
- Becky Shaw — 1.9%
- Fallen Angels — 0%
- Every Brilliant Thing — 0%
Attention must be paid — according to our odds anyway— to the fresh take on Arthur Miller’s American classic Death of a Salesman. But this production is facing off against a lineup of formidable contenders that on the surface should feel like more of a threat. Becky Shaw and Every Brilliant Thing have never been on Broadway before, Fallen Angels is a rarely produced Noël Coward script, and Oedipus is a brand new adaptation of an oft-told tale. Still, Salesman has leaped to the front of the pack, helped by given its nine nominations, the most of any play this year. Its closest competitor is Oedipus, and our prognosticators have likely clocked that those two shows are the only nominees here with corresponding director nominations.
BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
- Caissie Levy, Ragtime — 83.7%
- Marla Mindelle, Titanique — 8.8%
- Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers — 4.2%
- Stephanie Hsu, The Rocky Horror Show — 2.3%
- Sara Chase, Schmigadoon! — 1%
It somehow took Caissie Levy nine Broadway productions to earn her first Tony nomination, but our odds predict that she will make up for the long wait by winning on her first try. If she’s successful, it will also be the first time that an actress has won a Tony for playing Mother in Ragtime, after Marin Mazzie and Christiane Noll previously lost in this category. Levy’s closest competition appears to be Marla Mindelle who has audiences in stitches as a “kooky crazy” version of Celine Dion in Titanique. Mindelle could see the race shift in her favor since this could be one of the only places voters are able to reward Titanique. Mindelle co-created the musical spoof and is also nominated for Book of a Musical alongside Constantine Rousouli, so her multidisciplinary success is bound to win over some voters.
BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL)
- Joshua Henry, Ragtime — 93%
- Nicholas Christopher, Chess — 2.3%
- Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show — 2.3%
- Sam Tutty, Two Strangers — 1.4%
- Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime — 1%
Industry pundits have called a Tony win for Joshua Henry ever since Ragtime opened in the fall, and our earliest odds indeed give the actor one of the most commanding leads of the whole ceremony. Henry is a vocal powerhouse in numerous songs, particularly “Wheels of a Dream,” the duet with fellow nominee Nichelle Lewis, which regularly earns a mid-show standing ovation. A smattering of our prognosticators see a path for Nicholas Christopher’s breakout star turn in Chess or sexy-yet-affecting Luke Evans in The Rocky Horror Show. But our odds confirm what industry insiders have been saying for months: this is Henry’s year.
BEST ACTRESS (PLAY)
- Lesley Manville, Oedipus — 86.1%
- Carrie Coon, Bug — 6.5%
- Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels — 4.7%
- Susannah Flood, Liberation — 2.8%
- Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels — 0%
Performers from closed productions often face a tougher road to a Tony win, but our oddsmakers feel confident that things will play out differently this year in the Best Actress race. Lesley Manville made such an impression with her show-stopping Oedipus monologue that she’s held first place in Gold Derby’s odds all season long. Trailing behind her is Carrie Coon, who deeply unnerved theatergoers with a tour-de-force of paranoia in Bug, another play that concluded its limited run months ago. The only actresses from a still-running play in this category are Rose Byrne and Kelli O’Hara, but these Fallen Angels are such a dynamic duo that voters may have trouble choosing one over the other.
BEST ACTOR (PLAY)
- John Lithgow, Giant — 68.7%
- Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman — 27.1%
- Mark Strong, Oedipus — 1.9%
- Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing — 1.4%
- Will Harrison, Punch — 1%
It’s a battle of Tony-winning titans, according to our users. Two-time winner John Lithgow and three-time winner Nathan Lane are both on the hunt for an additional trophy to line their mantles. Lithgow has pulled ahead for diving head-first into a portrayal of the prickly and stubborn author Roald Dahl, and daring to explore a deeply flawed character. This is also the only category where our odds predict a win for Giant, and it’s likely that voters will want to reward this popular play somewhere. Still, Lane is playing against type to bring a new take to Willy Loman in Death of a Salesman. This will be a lively race to watch in the coming weeks.
WIN PREDICTIONS BY SHOW (MUSICALS)
Cats: The Jellicle Ball — 6
The Lost Boys — 3
Schmigadoon! — 3
Ragtime — 2
Two Strangers — 1
Gold Derby currently predicts shut-outs for Titanique, Chess, and The Rocky Horror Show.
WIN PREDICTIONS BY SHOW (PLAY)
Death of a Salesman — 5
Oedipus — 3
Giant — 1
Liberation — 1
Fallen Angels — 1
Gold Derby currently predicts shut-outs for The Balusters, Little Bear Ridge Road, Becky Shaw, Every Brilliant Thing, Bug, Dog Day Afternoon, The Fear of 13, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Marjorie Prime, Punch and Waiting for Godot.
