Welcome back to Tony Talk, where Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. In this installment, we look at another major theatre awards ceremony sleuthing for clues at to what might contend for Tonys way out in 2027.
Sam Eckmann: David, some big theater news from across the pond could shake up our hometown Tony race. Winners of the 2026 Olivier Awards were unveiled at a starry ceremony at Royal Albert Hall. We’ll dive into the awards domination of everyone’s favorite marmalade-loving teddy bear, but before that we need to discuss the single show that just got a major Tony boost: Punch by James Graham took home the trophy for Best New Play as well as the Best Supporting Actress award for Julie Hesmondhalgh.
Punch is also eligible for this year’s Tony Awards thanks to its staging at Manhattan Theatre Club earlier this season. Most pundits agree that Liberation, Giant, and The Balusters are taking three of the four Best Play slots. Do you think this Olivier win helps Punch overcome Little Bear Ridge Road and The Fear of 13 for the final slot?
David Buchanan: It’s hard to definitively say what effect these Olivier wins will have on the current Tony race, since Punch competed against an entirely different field at the Oliviers than the contenders it faces here in May. But there’s no question that it can’t hurt the show’s chance to be heralded as winner of two trophies at one of the most prestigious theatre awards just weeks before Tony nominators decide what will make the cut in New York.
The boost in visibility and chatter could help offset how time may have dulled some of the impact of the production, since Punch opened and closed very early in the Broadway season. I certainly remember being incredibly moved by the true story of the play, and the news brings those memories to mind. Right now, I still feel like Little Bear Ridge Road — the critically-acclaimed, Broadway debut of off-Broadway stalwart Samuel D. Hunter — has an edge for that fourth slot, but I do think this win will give me some additional pause.
How about you? Does Hesmondhalgh’s win for playing Joan perhaps increase the chances of a Tony nomination for two-time winner Victoria Clark, who played the role in the Manhattan Theatre Club production? It’s been over six months since I saw the New York production, but I certainly remember her devastation at the news of the death of her son, and especially that beautifully acted restorative justice meeting where she has an open dialogue with the man who killed him, who was played terrifically by Will Harrison on Broadway.
Eckmann: It’s important to remember that the Oliviers are voted by an entirely different awards body from the Tony Awards. We have seen a clear divide between the tastes of the New York and London theater industries with past nominees and winners. For instance, London voters anointed Back to the Future: The Musical as their Best New Musical pick in 2022, but the Broadway transfer of that production wasn’t even nominated for Best Musical at the Tonys.
Still, these two sets of voters tend to be more aligned on plays than musicals. Since a transfer across the pond often taken a year or more to compete, they almost never face the same competition twice. For instance, Olivier voters named Prima Facie as their Best Play of 2023 but it wasn’t even a nominee in that category at the Tonys. The 2023 Tony Award instead went to Tom Stoppard’s Leopoldstadt, which had already won the Olivier back in 2020. So, it’s never an apples to apples comparison.
This year, we have three plays eligible for Best Play at the Tonys that scored nominations or wins with at the Olivier Awards. Giant won the prize last year, The Fear of 13 was nominated last year, and Punch has just won this year. My gut says that there isn’t room for all three of them in this year’s Tony race. Especially since, as you pointed out, Samuel D. Hunter is in the mix. He has a home field advantage being a New York-based writer, and Little Bear Ridge Road boasts some of the strongest reviews of this season.
Still, I can’t help going back to a hunch I had before its Olivier victory that Punch could be a surprise nominee this year. It has a highly-stylized, highly-theatrical presentation, with a large ensemble on stage. Those factors make it stand out from many of its competitors. Couple the play’s distinctiveness with this stamp of approval from the Olivier Awards, and you have the makings of a surprise Tony nominee.
I know it’s rather early, but dare we also look an entire year into the future at the 2027 Tony Awards? Inter Alia has already announced a fall Broadway transfer. This drama lost the Best New Play category to Punch, but star Rosamund Pike did clinch Best Actress. Rachel Zegler won Lead Actress in a Musical for playing the title role of Evita. There are strong rumors that this Jamie Lloyd production is headed to New York next spring, as soon as they can figure out how to pull off the outdoor balcony scene in the crowded theater district.
And Paddington was the clear favorite of the night, winning seven trophies, including Best New Musical. I’m hearing this one might already have a Broadway theater secured for next year. Do you have any sense of how New York voters might embrace these productions, or not?
Buchanan: As you said, our knowledge of the 2026-2027 season of productions with actually confirmed Broadway houses and opening dates is extremely limited right now, but these are all extremely buzzy, exciting productions.
Inter Alia playwright Suzie Miller has proven adept at landing her leading performers accolades: Prima Facie won Best Play and Best Actress for Jodie Comer abroad and nabbed the actress the Tony as well, though it missed the top play category. Inter Alia evokes that earlier play as a legal drama starring Pike as a judge and mother whose professional and personal lives cross with devastating repurcussions. It is notably not a one-woman show like Prima Facie, but it clearly gives Pike a star vehicle for her Broadway debut, and I cannot wait to see it, especially since I missed the National Theatre Live broadcast.
I am especially curious to see how Evita will fare in New York. Zegler’s performance earned raves long before she took home the Olivier, but the London production overall received notably fewer nominations than Jamie Lloyd’s most recent musical revival on the West End, Sunset Blvd. Before that production made the transatlantic voyage to Broadway, it nearly tied the Olivier record for most nominations for a musical with 11 — the record is 13, set by Hamilton and tied by last year’s Fiddler on the Roof — and ultimately tied for the most wins for a musical of all time at seven with a handful of shows, including this year’s victor Paddington.
In comparison, his Evita nabbed only five mentions, missing Best Director for Lloyd. But even if Tony voters grow a little tired of another Lloyd stripped-down Andrew Lloyd Webber offering, I don’t think that will reflect poorly on Zegler’s chances. She proves her meddle here with one of the hardest vocal roles in modern musical theater.
As for that dear Paddington bear, not only does he seem precious, but the mechanics of the title character are a technical and acting marvel, combining remote puppeteering and voice work with onstage performance; James Hameed and Arti Shah jointly won the Olivier for Best Actor. Though I’m not well-versed in the entire Paddington: The Musical cast recording, it does seem to have some pretty melodious material to work with, including tracks “Pretty Little Dead Things” and “Marmalade,” the latter of which they performed at the ceremony. What’s your ridiculously early (but fun!) take on the impact of these awards a full year out from the 2027 Tonys?
Eckmann: Zegler has been on a roll as of late. She recently completed the 25th anniversary concert of The Last Five Years at Radio City Music Hall. While I wasn’t lucky enough to attend, the clips that have surfaced online are astonishing. The vocal power and emotional depth on display in that production and in Evita is sure to earn her good will next awards season. As you said, she’s tackling one of the most difficult vocals in all musical theater, and she’s making it look easy.
The Paddington score is indeed just as charming as the titular bear. I do worry that the character isn’t as culturally significant to American audiences as it is to British theatergoers, so the production might have a tougher time recreating the same runaway hit here in New York. But the stage magic used in making the bear come to life should be enough of an incentive for folks to grab tickets. It’s been a while since a show squarely aimed at young theatergoers and families won the Tony for Best Musical, but perhaps 2027 will make us all fall in love with our childhood teddy bears again.
