If it’s September, it must be film festival season. The cavalcade of red carpet premieres in far-flung locations started in Venice right after the calendar turned from the 2026’s eighth to ninth month and continued through Labor Day weekend in the quiet Colorado mountain town of Telluride. Gold Derby had our eyes and ears at both of those festivals, and now Inside Track has touched down in Toronto for the 51st edition of that city’s storied film festival. Elbows up, Tim Hortons double doubles in hand, and let’s dive in to how several of the acting races are getting a festival jolt.
To catch a Pattinson
Our TIFF experience actually started before the festival’s first day with a press-only preview of Robert Pattinson’s Primetime held on the top level of a Toronto multiplex. The A24 release isn’t actually playing Toronto, instead limiting its Big Four festival exposure to a Venice launch to be in closer proximity to its well-reviewed star, who is currently in London shooting The Batman Part II.
But general audiences also won’t have to wait very long to see Pattinson’s eerily uncanny impression of To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, who has been very vocal about seeing himself and his signature show portrayed on the big screen. The movie is due in theaters on Sept. 25 to give it some breathing room ahead of the usual October logjam of awards contenders.
That also gives Pattinson extra time to finish up his Gotham City commitments before he leaps into campaign mode for the multiple movies that he’s contending for. And since the Best Actor category is already overflowing with serious contenders, Pattinson’s presence on the circuit will be essential to Primetime’s future awards ambitions, given that the Lance Oppenheim-helmed feature is a more impressionistic (i.e., artier) take on the Predator story than voters may be expecting.
TIFF isn’t hosting Batman, but it will welcome a pair of jokers soon. John Malkovich and Andrew Scott are landing in town early next week riding strong waves of festival buzz for Wild Horse Nine and Elsinore, respectively. Both of those performers are already comfortably ensconced within the Top 5 contenders on Gold Derby’s experts-only Best Actor leaderboard, with Malkovich having toppled The Odyssey muscle man Matt Damon to claim the No. 1 spot.
Best Actor
1.
John Malkovich
Wild Horse Nine
2.
3.
4.
5.
Ryan Gosling
Project Hail Mary
6.
7.
John Turturro
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
8.
Robert Pattinson
Primetime
9.
10.
In a field this competitive, though, it’s never a bad idea to stay in the public eye with more festival appearances, especially as neither WH9 nor Elsinore are bound for NYFF, where Artificial’s Andrew Garfield and Behemoth’s Pedro Pascal are expected to enter the Oscar chat. Meanwhile, Pattinson is currently sitting at No. 8 on Gold Derby’s experts-only leaderboard and his nomination could be prey for Garfield or Pascal in this year’s dog-eat-dog race.
Malkovich’s scene partner Sam Rockwell will also be on hand for the film’s TIFF premiere, returning to the city that launched him on the road to his Best Supporting Actor win for his previous collaboration with McDonagh, 2017,’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Experts are currently predicting him to secure a repeat nomination for WH9 in a category that’s feeling a little sleepy right now as everyone waits for Digger — which will either confirm or cease John Goodman’s current front-runner status — to land.
Interestingly, TIFF is comparatively light on fresh Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor contenders among its most high-profile world premieres. One performer looking to generate some heat in the Best Actor race is two-time Best Supporting Actor winner, Mahershala Ali, who is swinging through on Saturday to launch the artistically ambitious assassin’s ball, Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother. (Not for nothing, but the movies that Ali previously won statuettes for — Moonlight and Green Book — also played Toronto.)
That same day, I Play Rocky’s Anthony Ippolito will unleash his Sylvester Stallone impression for TIFF audiences to see, hoping that the continued love for that 1976 Best Picture winner will vault him into the Oscar ring.
Best Supporting Actor
1.
Sam Rockwell
Wild Horse Nine
2.
3.
John Leguizamo
The Odyssey
4.
5.
Steve Buscemi
Wild Horse Nine
6.
7.
8.
9.
Robert Pattinson
The Odyssey
10.
Mark Ruffalo
Being Heumann
Ali and Ippolito definitely have the eye of the tiger, but their performances are going to have to be undeniable TKOs in order to be among the five fighters still standing on Oscar nominations morning.
Prima Cynthia
Things are different on the Best Actress side of the equation where The Debut’s Julianne Moore and Obsession’s Inde Navarrette are the only sure things in an otherwise wide-open field. And just like Malkovich and Scott, both of those front-runners are shoring up support with Toronto appearances, as are Fjord’s Renate Reinsve and All of a Sudden’s Cannes-winning leading lady Virginie Effie, who are respectively occupying the No. 5 and No. 7 slots on our experts-only countdown.
On the other hand, Sandra Hüller is conspicuously absent for both of her Best Actress contending star turns in Rose and Fatherland, the latter of which bowed at Cannes and just played Telluride, while the former debuted at Berlin where she won that festival’s top acting prize. Both Mubi-distributed movies will next turn up at NYFF where the German actress can potentially fortify her No. 4 standing for Fatherland.
And we may see double — or even triple — the Hüller on Oscar night thanks to a recent rules change that allows performers to be nominated in the same category for multiple roles. Along with those leading roles, she also has a pair of Best Supporting Actress bids for her scene-stealing, karaoke-singing turn in Project Hail Mary and her top-secret role opposite Tom Cruise in Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Digger. That movie opted to sidestep the festival circuit, but is set to finally unveil itself to the world on Sept. 22 in London. In the meantime, it might be wise for Hüller to prep multiple Oscar speeches.
The Best Actress race will likely get more of a boost from TIFF’s world premiere slate than the Best Actor group. That starts the opening night selection, Being Heumann, with Ruth Madeley playing the titular role in Siân Heder’s deeply felt biopic about pioneering disability rights activist, Judy Heumann. At the film’s world premiere on Thursday, the director of the Best Picture-winning CODA spoke about how part of her pitch to the real Heumann, who died in 2023, was her intention to make the film with a disabled cast. “That’s not the norm,” Madeley — who was born with Spina bifida — noted during the post-screening Q&A, which began with her and the film’s cast taking the stage to thunderous applause. “But maybe it will be.”
“I knew the pressure that so many disabled people are waiting to see a character like this on the big screen, myself included,” Madeley remarked later on. “I grew up never seeing anyone who looked like me on film. I promised Siân that this whole process would have every aspect of me and it really did.” Heder, of course, previously directed Troy Kotsur to a Best Supporting Actor win for CODA — the second deaf performer after Children of a Lesser God‘s Marlee Matlin to win an acting Oscar. (Appropriately enough, Matlin played Kotsur’s wife in CODA.) To date, no disabled performer has won an Oscar, but as Madeley said, maybe Being Heumann will help it become the new normal in Hollywood.
Meanwhile, another new Best Actress star could be born on Saturday night when Chris Rock’s made-in-Hollywood Misty Green screens with Rosalind Eleazar in the title role of an almost-was who gets another shot at the A-list. And Sunday night’s premiere of Prima Facie offers Cynthia Erivo a wicked shot at another Best Actress nod — especially when you consider that the stage version of Suzie Miller’s legal drama netted Jodie Comer back-to-back Olivier and Tony prizes.
Depending on how those films go over, you might say that TIFF will change the Best Actress race… for good.
The great Kate
Even though 2027 Oscar talk is kicking into overdrive, we still have to settle the 2026 Emmy discussion. With the Creative Arts Emmys in the rearview, all that remains are for the Primetime Emmys to be handed out on Sept. 14 — while TIFF is still unfolding, mind you. (Expect the numbers for the Crave simulcast in Canada to increase thanks to all of us visiting awards-spotters pulling double duty.)
That schedule is going to be just a wee bit tight for Widow’s Bay breakout star Kate O’Flynn. The British actress will be in Toronto on Saturday for the Canadian premiere of her new film, Tender Loving Care directed by living legend Mike Leigh, and then has to jet back to Los Angeles in time for Monday’s Emmy ceremony. The good news is that all the travel will be worth it for O’Flynn; the Best Comedy Supporting Actress nominee is on track to be part of the veritable storm of statuettes that Widow’s Bay is expected to receive.
Comedy Supporting Actress
1.
Kate O’Flynn
Widow’s Bay
2.
3.
Janelle James
Abbott Elementary
4.
Michelle Pfeiffer
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
5.
6.
7.
Jessica Williams
Shrinking
Thanks to its summertime surge, the Apple TV comedy is now leading its rival Hacks in virtually every Comedy category where the two are head-to-head. Gold Derby experts are currently forecasting that O’Flynn’s inspired performance as island oddball Patricia Moyer will handily best Hannah Einbinder’s final run as Ava Daniels. Here’s hoping there’s a big bowl of punch waiting for her at the afterparty… provided it’s not been made with the same recipe that Patricia used in Episode 4.
An Emmy win will be a great boost for O’Flynn’s stateside career, and also a great boost for Tender Loving Care’s profile ahead of its theatrical release in December. Leigh has said that this likely to be his final film, and it’s a lovely grace note at the end of a storied career, a small-scale movie that encapsulates everything that has made its maker a giant in the film industry. Emerging from the packed TIFF press and market screening — which people started lining up for 90 minutes ahead of its start time — we overheard numerous murmurings of approval and acknowledgement for Leigh’s decades of artistic service.
A seven-time Oscar nominee with two Best Director nods and five Best Original Screenplay bids, Leigh has never taken home a statuette. The same holds true for the trio of actors who have been nominated for committing themselves to his immersive process, including Secrets & Lies stars Brenda Blethyn and Marianne Jean-Baptiste — who were nominated for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress, respectively — and Vera Drake’s leading lady Imelda Staunton.
O’Flynn brings the same kind of TLC to her beautifully calibrated supporting role in Tender Loving Care, and her Widow’s Bay win will be fresh in voters’ minds as the film continues to tour the festival circuit. And much like Best Actress, the Best Supporting Actress race is still coalescing with only Hüller and Penélope Cruz — who is also eyeing a double nomination for her roles in The Invite and La Bola Negra — considered locks for one or more roles. Currently sitting at No. 12 on our Best Supporting Actress leaderboard, O’Flynn could enjoy a fall surge if she follows Leigh’s movie to its already-announced festival stops in New York, Vancouver, Mill Valley, and London.
Best Supporting Actress
1.
Anne Hathaway
The Odyssey
2.
Samantha Morton
The Odyssey
3.
Mariana Di Girolamo
Wild Horse Nine
4.
Penelope Cruz
La Bola Negra
5.
6.
7.
8.
Sandra Hüller
Project Hail Mary
9.
10.
After all that travel, returning to Widow’s Bay for Season 2 will almost feel like a vacation for O’Flynn. Pro tip: maybe don’t book the Captain’s Suite at the Breakwater Inn.
