After chasing the final season of past Best Comedy Series winner Hacks throughout the early predictions, Widow’s Bay has pulled ahead in Gold Derby expert odds for key categories in the week that Emmy voting officially kicked off.
A late-breaking surge from the Apple TV horror-comedy boosted its odds in the top category. At the time of publication, Widow’s Bay climbed 7 percentage points, while Hacks fell by the same margin, suggesting that some experts have flipped their picks from the latter to the former. The Matthew Rhys-starring series now sits in the lead with almost 53 percent of the expert vote.
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
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The expert’s take on that race does not match up with the general Gold Derby users’ predictions, which still holds at Hacks winning by a sizable margin — 72% to 27%.
And Comedy Series is not only category in which the experts are feeling bullish about Widow’s Bay‘s odds. They have fan-favorite Kate O’Flynn upsetting five-time nominee and last year’s winner for Comedy Supporting Actress, Hannah Einbinder. In fact, O’Flynn holds a healthy lead, possessing two-thirds of the expert vote.
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
And just like in Comedy Series, the combined odds favor Hacks and Einbinder, so there’s certainly the makings of some surprises come Emmys night.
Widow’s Bay‘s favor among the experts continues down ballot, as well. They have both Hiro Murai winning in Comedy Directing and creator/showrunner Katie Dippold taking home her first Emmy for writing the pilot.
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In both cases, the picks contradict what the combined odds are predicting, which further underlines the gulf between the experts’ opinion on Widow’s Bay‘s chances and the wider belief that Hacks is primed for a victory lap.
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
The difference in opinion may largely come down to varying views on the strengths of the respective narratives. Both shows are beloved, with passionate fanbases. But one is proven winner that’s going away and offering Television Academy members a final chance to say, “Thanks!” The other is an entity that’s untested at the Emmys, that both critics and its fans love, but has zero wins to its name.
Primetime Emmy Awards 2026
The safest bet for Widow’s Bay is where Hacks can’t compete. Matthew Rhys appears to be breezing to an easy Comedy Actor victory, perhaps because there is no male lead in Hacks. But his strength here shouldn’t be discounted. A check next to Rhys’ name could be the first bell toll, ringing in a new dominant Emmy competitor as another sails into the sunset.
