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Home»Awards & Events»Best Variety Series Emmy odds: Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Kimmel, more
Awards & Events

Best Variety Series Emmy odds: Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Kimmel, more

Williams MBy Williams MJuly 1, 2026No Comments5 Mins Read
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This year’s Best Variety Series Emmy race is one for the record books.

Not only does it combine talk shows and sketch programs for the first time since 2014, but the predicted nominees include a canceled show (The Late Show With Stephen Colbert), a suspended show (Jimmy Kimmel Live), two perennial favorites (The Daily Show and Saturday Night Live), and the category’s 10-time reigning champion (Last Week Tonight With John Oliver).

Due to the ongoing decrease in submissions for the Best Talk Series and Best Scripted Variety Series categories, the Television Academy decided this year to merge them into one category: Best Variety Series. This is essentially a return to form, as it is mostly how the contest played out prior to 2015.

'Hacks' / 'The Bear'

In addition, the TV Academy announced this year that it has reclassified Best Variety Series as an area award, where nominees are judged individually rather than competitively. Instead of selecting a single winner, voters must answer one question for each nominee: “Does this nominee merit an Emmy?” Any program that receives at least 90% “yes” votes will earn an Emmy, allowing for multiple winners.

Variety Series

1.

Late Show with Stephen Colbert

Late Show with Stephen Colbert

2.

Saturday Night Live

3.

Jimmy Kimmel Live

4.

The Daily Show SQ

5.

last week tonight john oliver hob

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

The current projected nominees, per the Gold Derby odds, are The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (99%), Saturday Night Live (99%), Jimmy Kimmel Live (95%), The Daily Show (93%), and Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (93%).

Also fighting for one of the five slots are Hot Ones, Late Night With Seth Meyers, The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon, Very Important People, Ziwe: You’d Be an Iconic Guest, and Real Time with Bill Maher, among others.

'The Late Show': Stephen Colbert, John Oliver, Seth Meyers, Jimmy Kimmel, and Jimmy Fallon
Stephen Colbert, John Oliver, Seth Meyers, Jimmy Kimmel, and Jimmy Fallon on ‘The Late Show’Scott Kowalchyk/CBS

The Late Show went out with a bang in May with a plethora of big-name stars including President Barack Obama, David Letterman, Jon Stewart, Paul McCartney, and Stephen Colbert’s fellow “Strike Force Five” late-night hosts: Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel, Seth Meyers, and John Oliver. CBS canceled the venerable late-night program in July of 2025 due to “purely financial” reasons, but gave Colbert and co. a year to fine-tune their departure.

Colbert’s version of The Late Show has received 33 Emmy nominations through the years, but only won its first two — Best Talk Series and Best Variety Directing — in the wake of last year’s cancellation announcement. It is now eligible for the last time at the 2026 Emmys, where it’s hoping to receive a goodbye hug from voters.

Another talk show that experienced uncertainty in the ever-evolving late-night space was Jimmy Kimmel Live. The program was suspended in September for nearly a week over Kimmel’s controversial comments about the murder of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr urged affiliates to “push back” against ABC, sparking urgent conversations about how the Donald Trump administration was trying to silence its critics.

Kimmel returned on Sept. 23 with a now-viral monologue that championed the freedom of speech clause in the First Amendment. His first show back drew a massive audience of 6 million viewers, more than tripling his regular ratings and marking the show’s highest viewership in a decade. To date, Jimmy Kimmel Live has been nominated for 42 Emmys, winning three: costumes (2010), picture editing (2008), and music & lyrics for “I’m F—ing Matt Damon” (2008).

Season 51 of NBC’s Saturday Night Live included such memorable moments as breakout star Ashley Padilla and host Ryan Gosling breaking during the “Passing Notes” sketch, a Harry Potter–meets–Heated Rivalry parody featuring Finn Wolfhard and Ben Marshall, and Bowen Yang delivering a tearful goodbye after seven seasons alongside Ariana Grande and Cher.

This season was also hit in the ratings, ranking as the No. 1 comedy in the 18–49 demographic and experiencing growth across its social media platforms. Emmy-wise, SNL is the most awarded program of all time, with 113 statuettes and counting, including Best Scripted Variety Series every year from 2017 to 2022.

The Daily Show
Jordan Klepper, Ronny Chieng, Jon Stewart, Desi Lydic, and Michael Kosta at a 2025 Emmy eventPhillip Faraone/Getty Images

The current iteration of Comedy Central’s The Daily Show continues on with a rotating group of hosts: Jon Stewart, Ronny Chieng, Jordan Klepper, Michael Kosta, Desi Lydic, and newbie Josh Johnson. Noteworthy guests this season were Jane Fonda, Sen. Mark Kelly, and Jafar Panahi.

The politically savvy hosts won Best Talk Series in 2024, adding to The Daily Show‘s franchise total that includes one series win for Trevor Noah’s version (2024), and 11 for Stewart’s iteration (2003-12 and 2015).

John Oliver at the 2025 Emmys

Finally, there’s Last Week Tonight With John Oliver. Among this year’s topics were deep-dives about the Department of Homeland Security, police stings, prediction markets, and AI chatbots. The episode airing May 31, the last day of Emmy eligibility, looked closer at some of President Trump’s controversial pardons.

The HBO program has dominated this Emmy category for the past 10 years, and is showing no signs of slowing down in its 13th season. It’s a shoo-in for another Best Variety Series nomination.

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