It’s the end of Phase 1 of Emmys voting as we know it, and we feel… fine? Ballots were due back to the TV Academy by 10 p.m. on Monday, with nominations set to be unveiled on July 8. Gold Derby has already covered three shows that we’re monitoring and three shows that are knock-knock-knockin’ on the door. But we’ve also got three burning questions that are teasing our brains now that the polls have closed. Follow our thinking, won’t you?
Does Euphoria have a prayer?
While HBO comedies Hacks and The Comeback are expected to benefit from the final season bump, the network’s once-mighty prestige drama Euphoria seems on track to end its run with an Emmy whimper. Not in terms of ratings, mind you; Season 3 proved to be must-watch television because of — rather than despite — the wildly divisive reaction to creator Sam Levinson’s violent endgame. But our expert oddsmakers are deeming it unlikely to have all those views transform into votes; Euphoria is stuck in the No. 10 spot for one of the eight Best Drama Series slots and dropping faster than Nate’s remaining toes.
Drama Series
1.
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3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
8.
9.
10.
Don’t forget that voters took a little while to warm up to the series anyway. Season 1 was largely relegated to below-the-line categories with the notable exception of Zendaya’s seismic Best Drama Actress win. Euphoria‘s sophomore year proved to be the breakthrough season with a second win for its star, as well as a guest actor statuette for Colman Domingo along with nominations for Sydney Sweeney, Martha Kelly, and the show itself. For the record, our experts are predicting that Zendaya and Domingo will both be back in contention, aided by an emotional series finale that puts their tragic relationship front and center.
Drama Actress
1.
2.
Keri Russell
The Diplomat
3.
4.
5.
Carrie Coon
The Gilded Age
But Sweeney (whose performance earned some of the season’s best reviews), Jacob Elordi (who joined Zendaya in a permanent Euphoria exit), and the show’s other supporting cast members are basically Emmy non-entities, and it’s very possible that Domingo — and maybe even Zendaya — could be impacted by the general antipathy that’s been directed towards Season 3. In Domingo’s case, Giancarlo Esposito and Jeremy Irons are waiting in the wings for The Boys and The Morning Show, respectively, and Esposito has the benefit of having been nominated last year.
Zendaya, meanwhile, has a challenger in the form of freshman phenom Chase Infiniti for The Testaments who has the benefit of being a much-liked newcomer in a (mostly) well-received series. And Infiniti has been actively on the campaign circuit for her series — which has included a Gotham TV Award win for Best Lead Performance in a Drama earlier this month — whereas Zendaya largely peaced out of Euphoria promotion following an obligatory appearance at the Season 3 premiere in April. Rather than try to go 3-for-3, the actress seems content to leave the series in the rearview, and voters could very well take that as their cue to put Rue to rest as well.
You can bet that Hulu will be feeling positively euphoric if that upset comes to pass.
Will Peacock join the party?
Six years into its existence, Peacock is still trying to prove that it has the plumage to compete in the major Emmy races for scripted programming. (The Traitors is a deserved Emmy monster in the Reality categories.) To date, the NBCUniversal platform has seen its best results for the since-canceled comedy Poker Face, which nabbed a Best Comedy Actress nod for star Natasha Lyonne in 2023, as well as a pair of Best Comedy Guest Actress nominations for Judith Light and Cynthia Erivo in 2023 and 2025, respectively. But to date, no original Peacock series has broken through into the races for Best Drama Series, Best Comedy Series, or Best Limited Series.
That finally seemed destined to change thanks to All Her Fault, the Sarah Snook-led thriller that was a big fall hit for the streamer. Until recently, the #BookTok-approved adaptation of the Andrea Mara bestseller had been firmly ensconced towards the top of our Best Limited Series leaderboard, helped in no small part by the star’s post-Succession glow. But All Her Fault has since seen its fortunes fall, sinking down to the No. 5 spot with our experts as challengers like HBO’s surging DTF St. Louis — which was the big winner at the Gotham TV Awards — and Netflix holdovers Black Rabbit and Death by Lightning try to take its place.
Limited Series
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10.
Monster: The Ed Gein Story
If it’s any consolation, Snook is still predicted to earn a spot in the Best Movie/Limited Actress group, which would be a first for Peacock. And her co-star, Dakota Fanning, is holding onto No. 3 in the six-performer Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress field, representing another first. But if that Best Limited Series nomination slips through the cracks, there will be a little less joy at 30 Rock come July 8. At least the streamer has another adaptation, The Good Daughter, waiting in the wings for the fall.
Movie/Limited Actress
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2.
Sarah Snook
All Her Fault
3.
Claire Danes
The Beast in Me
4.
5.
Sally Field
Remarkably Bright Creatures
Will Shrinking or Margo be Apple TV’s Comedy champ?
Without The Studio in the mix, the prevailing assumption had been that the third season of Bill Lawrence’s much-liked Shrinking would be Apple TV’s standard bearer across the Comedy Series categories. But then David E. Kelley’s Margo’s Got Money Troubles exploded out of the gate in its mid-April launch, and started racking up leaderboard placements as well.
To be clear, both series are sure to be well-represented when nominations are unveiled, but which series ultimately wins bragging rights to being the most-nominated Apple comedy hinges on how many acting spots Shrinking can grab for its sizable ensemble. (And, by the way, a late-phase surge by Widow’s Bay puts another Apple comedy in play in at least two — and maybe more — categories.)
On the Shrinking side of the equation, our experts are currently predicting nods for Jason Segal for Best Comedy Actor, Harrison Ford and Michael Urie for Best Comedy Supporting Actor, and Jessica Williams for Best Comedy Supporting Actress. Margo, meanwhile, can claim Elle Fanning for Best Comedy Actress, Michelle Pfeiffer for Best Comedy Supporting Actress, and Nick Offerman for Best Comedy Supporting Actor — a 4-3 tilt towards Shrinking that could become a tie if Urie or Williams fall short.
Of those two, Williams has notably seen her odds dip slightly as voting comes to a close, although not enough to fall out of the seven finalists. Instead, The Bear‘s Liza Colón-Zayas appears on track to be the odd performer out as voters awaken to the fact that they only have one more chance at honoring Megan Stalter for the final season of Hacks, and Kate O’Flynn rides the wave of Widow’s Bay love to her first nomination.
Comedy Supporting Actress
1.
Janelle James
Abbott Elementary
2.
3.
Michelle Pfeiffer
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
4.
Jessica Williams
Shrinking
5.
Sheryl Lee Ralph
Abbott Elementary
6.
7.
Kate O’Flynn
Widow’s Bay
8.
Carol Burnett
Palm Royale
9.
Ashley Padilla
Saturday Night Live
10.
Liza Colon-Zayas
The Bear
That leaves it to the guest acting categories to break the potential tie, and Shrinking has the definite edge there, especially in Best Comedy Guest Actor. Michael J. Fox, Brett Goldstein, and Jeff Daniels are forecast to take up three of the six available spots there, while Candice Bergen is a perceived lock for Best Comedy Guest Actress. In fact, Margo declined to submit any of its guest stars, including past guest Emmy winner Paul McCrane for his acclaimed appearance in the Season 1 finale.
Comedy Guest Actor
1.
2.
3.
Brett Goldstein
Shrinking
4.
Connor Storrie
Saturday Night Live
5.
6.
Given that, the only thing that could shrink Shrinking‘s chances at claiming “most nominated” comedy status would be if Margo fields overindexes in the directing field — where it submitted three episodes, the same number as Shrinking — as well as a significant number of below the line categories. And hey, if it all comes down to Best Prosthetic Makeup, there’s no way that nomination’s not going to Elle Fanning‘s team.
